It's been 30 years, is there light over the horizon?
Probably not. Its such a shame how we are the most homogenous country in Africa, but we are still a failed state.
Untill The Men And Women Of The Kacaan Era Dies Coruption Will Reign Over The Lands We Hold Dear Hopefully The Youth Will See The Error Our Elders Did
As someone who studies post-war reconstruction closely, Somalia is not that far off from the average African country.
If the government is able to control the entire country and collect taxes, it will become much more economically powerful in an African context.
Diaspora Somalis often unfavourably compare Somalia to Ethiopia/Kenya without realising they are amongst the richest in Africa and much larger than Somalia. There are tons of nations in Africa that are roughly the same level in development without having state failure for over two decades.
As for Somalia reaching Western standards, that depends on Somalia having smart leadership and shrewd investment of fossil fuel resources into other industries.
tLdR: Hope is not completely lost for Somalia to become your average African nation, but some good fortune is required for us to become the next Singapore.
The country will be peaceful by the end of this decade, especially south Somalia. Its just matter of time. Al-shabaab is closer to a criminal organisation than to a terrorist one. Compare Somalia to 10 years ago to now. It will progress.
War is not the issue Somalia has, its displacement caused by climate change. Drought is forcing Somalis to flee to cities where they live in camps. This is the major problem today.
That place is not interested in peace and reconciliation. Fat ladies will throw popcorn at their clan warlords that committed human rights violations as they arrive at the airport. There is a current regional President who shelled his own mother's clan neighbourhoods while his mother was there in her own house.
I am more concerned about the zero state institutions which allows the corruption and violence to continue. Somalia is too far gone. They just dont understand what it takes to build a country. Other Africans have problems but at least they are serious and committed to changing (and they are slowly). Corruption is a problem in the whole continent but at least they have measures and initiatives in place to tackle it. Corruption is just too ingrained in Somali society that they regard it as a way of life. There is no shame over there. You are considered a smart man for stealing public money; that is the whole point of being in government. You are a fariid for giving your cousin a government job he is not qualified for at all (but you will be called a dhaandhaan for hiring a Western qualified person from an enemy clan). There is no accountability there and no one knows what that means. Others will not criticize you but wish they were in your place. It's hilarious when people get excited when a new group of people come into power in Somalia every 4 years; it's just a new group of people looting who won't know how to govern.