Why signing powers to Xamar is dangerous

[Abaq]

While Madoobe and co sign laws easily giving Xamar more and more power, they don't understand they are signing their own death warrants. Iraqi Kurdistan which has been autonomous for nearly 30 years is on the brink of losing it's autonomy to the central government in Baghdad. How? The Iraqi government sued Turkey in an international court so the Turks stopped buying oil from Kurdistand. Now the Kurds can't sell their oil independently and have to go through Baghdad. Baghdad now funds the Kurds and they are beholden to the commands of the Iraqi government. A new law was passed in Baghdad that any Kurdish region that wants to get its funding directly from Baghdad bypassing Erbil can do so. Baghdad also controls all the entry and custom points in Kurdistan. In short, the Kurds have lost their autonomy.

This is the danger that faces Somalia. Although the State Presidents might give their signatures as just ink on paper, Xamar can and will use them in international courts to have them implemented, just like Baghdad did.

The Kurds’ dreams of independence look farther off than ever​

As the Kurds bicker, Iraq’s federal government is regaining control​

For three decades Kurdistan boomed while the rest of Iraq sputtered. The region had the country’s fastest economic growth. It built modern oil complexes, hotels and motorways. With a vote in favour of independence in a referendum in 2017, its future looked bright. Six years on that dream has faded. The cranes that rotated above sprawling conurbations are parked over half-finished estates. And as Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, rebounds thanks to improved security and oil revenues, its rulers are chipping away at Kurdistan’s autonomy. After 30 years of self-government, the Kurds’ economy, borders, disputed territories and politics are largely back under central control. The Kurdish Regional Government (krg) is losing strength, says a Western diplomat monitoring developments from Baghdad: “There’s a risk that the Kurdistan project will fail.”

The Iraqi government in Baghdad is taking advantage of this rivalry to claw back the power it lost after the Kurds rose up against Iraq’s old dictator, Saddam Hussein, in 1991. It has started with money. Earlier this year the Supreme Court used an international arbitration ruling in Paris to outlaw Kurdish oil sales, stripping the Kurds of revenues they accrued from selling 450,000 barrels a day. Kurdish salaries now depend on the monthly allowance Baghdad pays the regional government.

The government in Baghdad is also taking control of the Kurds’ borders. It has stationed guards at the krg’s crossings and airports, in effect giving it a veto over who can get in and out. The Talabanis still pocket the revenues from the influx of cars and from cigarettes smuggled in from Iran—but not for much longer, says an Iraqi official. Turkey’s suspension of oil purchases from Iraq has also cost the Kurds the transit fees they used to earn from such transactions (an international court deemed that Turkey had been importing oil from the krg without Iraq’s consent and awarded Iraq around $1.5bn in compensation).

Most damaging, perhaps, is the Iraqi state’s reassertion of legal supremacy. In May its Supreme Court declared Kurdistan’s decision to postpone elections unconstitutional and ordered the replacement of the Kurdish electoral commission with Iraq’s.

Full article https://www.economist.com/middle-ea...ms-of-independence-look-farther-off-than-ever

 

[MVPSOM]

While Madoobe and co sign laws easily giving Xamar more and more power, they don't understand they are signing their own death warrants. Iraqi Kurdistan which has been autonomous for nearly 30 years is on the brink of losing it's autonomy to the central government in Baghdad. How? The Iraqi government sued Turkey in an international court so the Turks stopped buying oil from Kurdistand. Now the Kurds can't sell their oil independently and have to go through Baghdad. Baghdad now funds the Kurds and they are beholden to the commands of the Iraqi government. A new law was passed in Baghdad that any Kurdish region that wants to get its funding directly from Baghdad bypassing Erbil can do so. Baghdad also controls all the entry and custom points in Kurdistan. In short, the Kurds have lost their autonomy.

This is the danger that faces Somalia. Although the State Presidents might give their signatures as just ink on paper, Xamar can and will use them in international courts to have them implemented, just like Baghdad did.

That's why Puntland never signs anything to give control to Xamar. I prefer PL independence, but if that is not possible then I want the next best thing which a strong confederate system and a super weak xamar gov.

 

[bidenkulaha]

The only savour for federalists is Deni. Do y’all really trust him not to buckle?

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

The only savour for federalists is Deni. Do y’all really trust him not to buckle?

Unlike the paper state presidents who will sign anything for couple more years, PL is bigger than Deni. He will go tomorrow like the ones before him, but the policy will remain. We will never sign out shit over. Heck, we won't even agree to have the same tax system for the ports which is the reason of Buldanana Dhuso yesterday about Garacad- port.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Unlike the paper state presidents who will sign anything for couple more years, PL is bigger than Deni. He will go tomorrow like the ones before him, but the policy will remain. We will never sign out shit over. Heck, we won't even agree to have the same tax system for the ports which is the reason of Buldanana Dhuso yesterday about Garacad- port.

HSM is set to meet Deni next month but suddenly gives him a layup. After giving him a big boost just before local elections in May.

Maybe you’re being played?

 

[johnsepei5]

Puntland staying 2 steps ahead

 

[GaradShabeel]

While Madoobe and co sign laws easily giving Xamar more and more power, they don't understand they are signing their own death warrants. Iraqi Kurdistan which has been autonomous for nearly 30 years is on the brink of losing it's autonomy to the central government in Baghdad. How? The Iraqi government sued Turkey in an international court so the Turks stopped buying oil from Kurdistand. Now the Kurds can't sell their oil independently and have to go through Baghdad. Baghdad now funds the Kurds and they are beholden to the commands of the Iraqi government. A new law was passed in Baghdad that any Kurdish region that wants to get its funding directly from Baghdad bypassing Erbil can do so. Baghdad also controls all the entry and custom points in Kurdistan. In short, the Kurds have lost their autonomy.

This is the danger that faces Somalia. Although the State Presidents might give their signatures as just ink on paper, Xamar can and will use them in international courts to have them implemented, just like Baghdad did.

The problems with Kurdistan is not signing away power, it's that the federal government have consolidated power gradually ever since the Americans 'left'. This would be unthinkable when the Iraqi government was being rebuilt post-invasion. They were even close to seceding at some point, but they've lost momentum now and made bad decisions too.

As the Iraqi gov't exerted more authority slowly after Daesh again, the Kurds were also dumb enough to declare independence, what did the gov't do? They took over a significant territory from Kurdistan and transferred to federal jurisdiction as well as their airports and entry-exit checkpoints.

This is what @bidenkulaha want to happen in Somalia by taking back autonomy over time from the FMS. And use all means possible to those who refuse to obey orders

 

[bidenkulaha]

The problems with Kurdistan is not signing away power, it's that the federal government have consolidated power gradually ever since the Americans 'left'. This would be unthinkable when the Iraqi government was being rebuilt post-invasion. They were even close to seceding at some point, but they've lost momentum now and made bad decisions too.

As the Iraqi gov't exerted more authority slowly after Daesh again, the Kurds were also dumb enough to declare independence, what did the gov't do? They took over a significant territory from Kurdistan and transferred to federal jurisdiction as well as their airports and entry-exit checkpoints.

This is what @bidenkulaha what to happen in Somalia by taking back autonomy over time from the FMS. And use all means possible to those who refuse to obey orders

Both laws and authority are important. Signing them like JL has such as handing over the port to FGS will allow FGS to legally enforce it with force in future without international backlash.

So you’re both right in a sense.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Both laws and authority are important. Signing them like JL has such as handing over the port to FGS will allow FGS to legally enforce it with force in future without international backlash.

So you’re both right in a sense.

You you don't even need international backlash. I meant use FGS to legally decrease the power of FMS over time. Which is doable as long as you have the support. In Iraq, many Arabs are in favor of the federal gov't being more assertive in Kurdistan.

 

[bidenkulaha]

You you don't even need international backlash. I meant use FGS to legally decrease the power of FMS over time. Which is doable as long as you have the support. In Iraq, many Arabs are in favor of the federal gov't being more assertive in Kurdistan.

It’s already happening in a way. I expect the resources agreement such as Baydhabo 2018 to be changed over time where it hands 40% to FMS.

Completing the constitution is a death warrant for federalism as imagined as it is now

 

[GaradShabeel]

It’s already happening in a way. I expect the resources agreement such as Baydhabo 2018 to be changed over time where it hands 40% to FMS.

Completing the constitution is a death warrant for federalism as imagined as it is now

Yeah, that's what I implied.

But why 40% federal taxation tho? It seems to be more than the responsibilities of the FGS.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Yeah, that's why I implied.

But why 40% federal taxation tho? It seems to be more than the responsibilities of the FGS.

FGS gets 50% FMS 40%. But that’s offshore. But I’m sure if they agree parliament is supreme and can pass any law it likes and that affects FMS like in this new constitution you’ll see gradual change to it.

It’s the best agreement FGS could do in Baydhabo 2018 if you remember

 

[Gerigo'an]

You guys are crazy! If Somalia doesn't get its shit together in the next decade, we can kiss goodbye to our country. Let's stop thinking with clan in mind, let's put that shit aside for once.
Our collective survival rests on Somalia being a proper country. If not, start getting ready for the inevitable Kenya and Ethiopia take over.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Abaq It doesn't matter what SFG and PL presidents sign, the constitution is not complete so it will never hold any weight or effect PL. They can do all the igu sawirs they want, as long as that constitution remains incomplete, nothing signed holds any legality in PL. Secondly even if the constitution was completed, it has to be passed onto PL parliament for another checking process and vote before it gains PL recognition. PL ka wayn 2 niin heeshishkooda.

I kind of support HSM not wasting his time on PL as he must know whatever is signed between them has no legality and will just be over-turned by the next president on constitutional grounds.