Why is Somali GOV submissive to SL?

[DoctorSambaac]

Why have a SNA base not been created in Goojacade and a Batallion created there? Which could be training Garxajiis,Dhulbahante and Diir/Gadabursii soldiers? Why has HSM not even tried creating and supporting a federal state for Awdal and Khatumo? completly quiet out there and tbh it's not only him every Somali Gov has been extremly submissive towards SL but very harsh on other federalstates which dont really make sense.

If the Somali Gov was able to gain controll of North Somalia from Awdal towards Galmudug it would not be a paper state like it is today. So why are there no thinkers in the GOV? It's blatant that the path too nation building should start from North where it would be easiest to govern.

 

[Jaha]

I think he initially planned to play a waiting game with SL. It seemed unnecessary to interfere while he was engrossed in a conflict with AS. Additionally, engaging in any form of military confrontation would only exacerbate the existing discontent with FGS among the SL population.

What Bihi recently did is going to change the attitude towards the region. HSM has an opportunity to force them back in now without much effort. He's been unreasonably too friendly with them but it's time to get serious and stop this madness once and for all.

completly quiet out there and tbh it's not only him every Somali Gov has been extremly submissive towards SL but very harsh on other federalstates which dont really make sense.

The previous FGS administration had intended to reclaim the region through force, However, their approach was misguided, and would backfire big time.

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[Three Moons]

Somalia hasn’t used it financial leverages yet against both SL or Ethiopia. It could freeze all of SL’s accounts held by Somali banks worth over a billion $, it could stop all international funds from reaching the SL government. It could stop the $350 million Jaad trade with Ethiopia (which would negatively impact their export volume by 10% and harm their economic growth figures), it could revoke Ethiopian Airlines from flying above Somali Airspace, and they would be forced to oblige because of the international aviation rules. This would significantly affect their fleet’s flight pattern and add to their fuel costs and flight time as they have to resort to alternative routes.

Right now Somalia has the moral high ground and locals in the North are directing their anger towards Musa Bihi’s administration and Abiy’s Ethiopia, so its a smart play by HSM to keep the current push diplomatically, and not negatively affect the average person through economic pressure. In the mean time HSM has to import jets and ships to reinforce de-jure power with de-facto power.

 

[Abdixakim]

Because he wants Darood to remain under Isaaq

 

[DoctorSambaac]

I think he initially planned to play a waiting game with SL. It seemed unnecessary to interfere while he was engrossed in a conflict with AS. Additionally, engaging in any form of military confrontation would only exacerbate the existing discontent with FGS among the SL population.

So the people of awdal nor khatumo nor garxajis voice matter it's ''unnecessary'' for the so called govt of somalia to interfere in it's own border if true then why cry wolf when Ethiopia strikes deal with the independent SL ? Dont make sense.

What Bihi recently did is going to change the attitude towards the region. HSM has an opportunity to force them back in now without much effort. He's been unreasonably too friendly with them but it's time to get serious and stop this madness once and for all.



The previous FGS administration had intended to reclaim the region through force, However, their approach was misguided, and would backfire big time.

No they didn't Farmajo played hardball on JL and PL esp on Madoobe pulling all different tactics what did he do to SL? He literally was ready to become PM and move the capital city to Hargeisa?

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Dont matter. Since when does a real govt care ab ''cuqdad'', every government in the world takes necessary measurements they do not go by the logic ''will a small % of the population get upset''. Are you hearin yourself? Your equating Habr awal/Habar jeclo with whole of north, So the Madhibans,Diir,Gadabursii, Dhulbahante and Warsangeli dont matter, we shall not upset the small % of isaaqs got it.

 

[DoctorSambaac]

Somalia hasn’t used it financial leverages yet against both SL or Ethiopia. It could freeze all of SL’s accounts held by Somali banks worth over a billion $, it could stop all international funds from reaching the SL government. It could stop the $350 million Jaad trade with Ethiopia (which would negatively impact their export volume by 10% and harm their economic growth figures), it could revoke Ethiopian Airlines from flying above Somali Airspace, and they would be forced to oblige because of the international aviation rules. This would significantly affect their fleet’s flight pattern and add to their fuel costs and flight time as they have to resort to alternative routes.

Somalia has no financial leverage like saxiib your talking ab stopping khat trade from where? whose gonna enforce it? The Somali region bordering SL? sure.. regarding your it could it could is what im touching on why is HSM so daft the Ethiopian diplomat is stil in Mogadishu breathing and your making up wish theories.

Right now Somalia has the moral high ground and locals in the North are directing their anger towards Musa Bihi’s administration and Abiy’s Ethiopia, so its a smart play by HSM to keep the current push diplomatically, and not negatively affect the average person through economic pressure. In the mean time HSM has to import jets and ships to reinforce de-jure power with de-facto power.

The locals who are directing their anger towards Muse Biixi are helpless they are not the ones with the power so if HSM cared about them he'd help them no? bc i aint seen no demonstration in Hargeisa..

 

[Warzio7]

Somalia hasn’t used it financial leverages yet against both SL or Ethiopia. It could freeze all of SL’s accounts held by Somali banks worth over a billion $, it could stop all international funds from reaching the SL government. It could stop the $350 million Jaad trade with Ethiopia (which would negatively impact their export volume by 10% and harm their economic growth figures), it could revoke Ethiopian Airlines from flying above Somali Airspace, and they would be forced to oblige because of the international aviation rules. This would significantly affect their fleet’s flight pattern and add to their fuel costs and flight time as they have to resort to alternative routes.

Right now Somalia has the moral high ground and locals in the North are directing their anger towards Musa Bihi’s administration and Abiy’s Ethiopia, so its a smart play by HSM to keep the current push diplomatically, and not negatively affect the average person through economic pressure. In the mean time HSM has to import jets and ships to reinforce de-jure power with de-facto power.

It’s over brother …the train as already left the station. Just focus on Italian Somalia. Make that as great as it can be.

 

[DoctorSambaac]

It’s over brother …the train as already left the station. Just focus on Italian Somalia. Make that as great as it can be.

Why you stil boarding the train then.. isnt there a camel corp forum for your likes... jokes on you saxiib.

 

[Warzio7]

Why you stil boarding the train then.. isnt there a camel corp forum for your likes... jokes on you saxiib.

You already agree with me Saxib there’s nothing Somalia can do. Actually all the government officials complaining and protesting with not much power to do anything is making Somalia look even weaker.

 

[johnsepei5]

@Thegoodshepherd what do you think

 

[DoctorSambaac]

You already agree with me Saxib there’s nothing Somalia can do. Actually all the government officials complaining and protesting with not much power to do anything is making Somalia look even weaker.

I think a president with a iq above 90 would done alot already, my own opinion? 1/3 of SL has already broke away, the other half left, with support from the gov would leave aswell. Then eventually GX would leave and whats left for the habr awal n jeclo 3-4 towns? they can self govern them no issues for me, they'll be responsible for their own stuff with no support from the somali gov like the gypsies in east europe.

 

[Three Moons]

Somalia has no financial leverage like saxiib your talking ab stopping khat trade from where? whose gonna enforce it? The Somali region bordering SL? sure.. regarding your it could it could is what im touching on why is HSM so daft the Ethiopian diplomat is stil in Mogadishu breathing and your making up wish theories.

An export trade volume at that level is conducted through international transactions and the banking system, which in 2021 was unified by the Somali government under a central payment system involving ALL of the major banks and hawalas, and they also fall under the Central Bank Laws. Any company not playing ball could have their licenses revoked and prevented from doing any business in Somalia, have their transactions declared as funding instability, and lose their ability to continue doing business in other countries, hence they would go bankrupt within a week of running through their savings. If HSM wanted to he could use the full weight of Somalia’s sovereign financial arms, recognised by intentional financial institutions, in a terrible fashion.

The locals who are directing their anger towards Muse Biixi are helpless they are not the ones with the power so if HSM cared about them he'd help them no? bc i aint seen no demonstration in Hargeisa..

The locals own the land. If you don’t have their support you can’t even built a sandcastle on their beach, let alone a base. And there were plenty of demonstrations in Hargeisa.

 

[Bazed]

A regional war will come of this because generation of people never sat down to figure shit out.

 

[DoctorSambaac]

An export trade volume at that level is conducted through international transactions and the banking system, which in 2021 was unified by the Somali government under a central payment system involving ALL of the major banks and hawalas, and they also fall under the Central Bank Laws. Any company not playing ball could have their licenses revoked and prevented from doing any business in Somalia, have their transactions declared as funding instability, and lose their ability to continue doing business in other countries, hence they would go bankrupt within a week of running through their savings. If HSM wanted to he could use the full weight of Somalia’s sovereign financial arms, recognised by intentional financial institutions, in a terrible fashion.

Do not think it's that simple. Genuinely doubt the western countries gone ban big companies such as dahabshiil / world remit because ''HSM'' orders them too. For example world remit has big investment from Zepz company which are worth billions of dollars and prolly got more connection too Europes regional leader than HSM. GL.

The locals own the land. If you don’t have their support you can’t even built a sandcastle on their beach, let alone a base. And there were plenty of demonstrations in Hargeisa.

I agree locals own the land however with force there's not much they can do as they've all been stripped of their guns many years ago. It wouldn't be hard to remove the 5k people living there if they wish too.

 

[DoctorSambaac]

A regional war will come of this because generation of people never sat down to figure shit out.

That's fine winner take it all. There's no siting down in 2024 if it aint worked for 34 years.

 

[Bazed]

That's fine winner take it all. There's no siting down in 2024 if it aint worked for 34 years.

Seems like it. Perhaps 70-80 years from now our descendants will curse us for it. It'll probably set us back a decade, but if this what the elite are willing to die on. So be it.

 

[Three Moons]

Do not think it's that simple. Genuinely doubt the western countries gone ban big companies such as dahabshiil / world remit because ''HSM'' orders them too. For example world remit has big investment from Zepz company which are worth billions of dollars and prolly got more connection too Europes regional leader than HSM. GL.

You ignore the principle. World governments out of principle will not ignore companies that are conduits for international instability. This is why all of the commercial banks and hawalas jumped on the opportunity to join Somalia’s National Payment System because it also gives them access to Somalia’s IBAN code. Remember that the Central Bank of Somalia won the prestigious 2023 Payment and Market Infrastructure Development Award so its a credible and reputed financial institution.

Somalia also has the ability of suing companies or states in their home countries or international courts with the full weight of the domestic laws of that specific country or international laws, as we saw with the Kenya-Somalia dispute that Somalia won comfortably.

I agree locals own the land however with force there's not much they can do as they've all been stripped of their guns many years ago. It wouldn't be hard to remove the 5k people living there if they wish too.

That’s wishful thinking, especially in a Somali context, where blood and land are one and the same.

 

[Nin123]

Why have a SNA base not been created in Goojacade and a Batallion created there? Which could be training Garxajiis,Dhulbahante and Diir/Gadabursii soldiers? Why has HSM not even tried creating and supporting a federal state for Awdal and Khatumo? completly quiet out there and tbh it's not only him every Somali Gov has been extremly submissive towards SL but very harsh on other federalstates which dont really make sense.

If the Somali Gov was able to gain controll of North Somalia from Awdal towards Galmudug it would not be a paper state like it is today. So why are there no thinkers in the GOV? It's blatant that the path to nation building should start from North where it would be easiest to govern.

Hassan the president is soft on them cause he wants Dir to vote for him in the next election. That’s why he didn’t intervene in laaascanood battle.

 

[Warzio7]

I think a president with a iq above 90 would done alot already, my own opinion? 1/3 of SL has already broke away, the other half left, with support from the gov would leave aswell. Then eventually GX would leave and whats left for the habr awal n jeclo 3-4 towns? they can self govern them no issues for me, they'll be responsible for their own stuff with no support from the somali gov like the gypsies in east europe.

I know you don’t want to believe that the majority want to see a recognised independent Somaliland, but that just the way it is man. Eastern Somaliland is not that populated so they're not the position to stop us. Isaaq are a united when comes to Somaliland independence that’s 70% of the ppl so the rest just need to get on board if they aint. Lol

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

Hassan the president is soft on them cause he wants Dir to vote for him in the next election. That’s why he didn’t intervene in laaascanood battle.

Same with Farmaajo, he even refused to publically discuss SSC.