Why is Al-Shabaab dominating the SNA ?

Does anyone have a more detailed answer ?

From the recent videos Al-Shabaab released, a few of their fighters made thousands of SNA soldiers flee without fighting. And it also looks like the SNA hasn't done any significant progress since 2022, even worse, they're losing all their gains.

SNA forces outnumber Al-Shabaab more than 2 to 1 but only 8000 out of 24000 SNA troops are trained by the US and Turkey (Danab & Gorgor).

An important factor which is severly lowering SNA troops morale are unpaid salaries, their salaries are already low for such a small army but in addition I've seen multiple reports saying that thousands of soldiers go months without pay. In one report, the UN claimed troops weren’t paid for six months, causing protests and low morale. Another Reuters report from Middle Shabelle revealed entire units vacated their bases after four months without salary. Some even go more than a year without salaries.

The Ministry of Defence still hasn't spoken out about this recurring issue and I'm pretty sure the Ministry of Planning and Finance has pointed out the unprofessionalism of the Ministry of Defence back in 2018. Come to think of it, it's the only Ministry which hasn't made any significant progress or milestones, probably the least transparent as well.

When the US exposed corruption within the Somali army, the Ministry of Defence promised suspensions and arrests but no updates were made and sources are saying no arrests happened : https://thesomalidigest.com/ministr...theft-lacks-substance/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

I know rampant corruption and underpaid soldiers are at the core of this failure, but the more I read about it the more I notice the SNA has literally always been useless the whole time, the 2022 offensive was won greatly thanks to clan militias who are more motivated to defend their lands and don't run at the first sign of a black flag. FGS is so desperate they recently got exposed for stealing Macwisley Ws.

Somalia now has Attack helicopters and Combat drones but air superiority means nothing if you have no land army.

When you look at this map, it would seem like the SNA or any modern army could easily isolate and encircle Galmudug Shabab as to cut them off from their Southern counterparts, yet nothing has happened for years.

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I initially thought Al-Shabaab was a really powerful and coordinated force but after seeing their failed incursions into Ethiopia it's clear that any modern army could defeat them.

The recent events in Puntland reinforced this view and showed us what a real competent army and motivated troops were like, in less than a year most of ISIS was totally crushed by Puntland forces.

By now, it's evident the Somali National Army is highly dysfunctional and in urgent need of total reform. What do you think could realistically be done to fix what may be the most ineffective military force of this century and raise morale/discipline of their soldiers ? Help me understand this better.

Only serious and realistic answers please.
 
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These articles can hopefully answer your question. TLDR: the SNA is less cohesive and is too dependent on external support whereas AS is better organized and self sufficient. There is also a lack of coordinatiln between FGS and FMS as both are constantly at odds with each other.

 
These articles can hopefully answer your question. TLDR: the SNA is less cohesive and is too dependent on external support whereas AS is better organized and self sufficient. There is also a lack of coordinatiln between FGS and FMS as both are constantly at odds with each other.

1300 Gorgor deserting in one Battle yaab wAllahi

:farmajoyaab:

Nearly half of Al-Shabaab attacks were concentrated on ATMIS soldiers, it's almost certain if the C6 leaves as the FGS is now suggesting, there might be high chances of a complete Al Shabaab takeover
 
there might be high chances of a complete Al Shabaab takeover
Not likely. Somali clan militias like Macawisley are fighting AS too and with some success. Mogadisu is also too large for AS to take over since they lack the logistical and numerical forces to do so. They are only good at hit and run tactics and taking over small villages.
 
Not likely. Somali clan militias like Macawisley are fighting AS too and with some success. Mogadisu is also too large for AS to take over since they lack the logistical and numerical forces to do so. They are only good at hit and run tactics and taking over small villages.
True. When people compare Somalia to Afghanistan they forget that khalizad dissolved all local militias there so there was only ANA facing the taliban
 
Not likely. Somali clan militias like Macawisley are fighting AS too and with some success. Mogadisu is also too large for AS to take over since they lack the logistical and numerical forces to do so. They are only good at hit and run tactics and taking over small villages.
So basically it's an infinite stalemate
 

NidarNidar

♚kṯr w ḫss♚
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Who wants to die for a corrupt government that pays poorly, just look at Afganistan, for a army to succeed it needs heart and be rewarded for it, I pray for AU troops to leave Somalia, that is the only way we will get a good president that can build the army, not the current idiots pillaging the country.

Al-Shabaab | Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)
Estimated Annual Revenue ~$100 million | ~$738 million (2023)
Revenue Sources Illicit trade, extortion, taxation | Taxes, grants, international aid
Fiscal Sustainability High (self-funded) | Low (dependent on external aid)
Control Over Revenue Complete (shadow state) | Limited (compromised institutions)

Al-Shabaab: ~5,000 to 10,000 fighters

FGS + Allies: ~15,000 to 20,000 Somali National Army fighters, with additional support from AMISOM and regional militias
 
I pray for AU troops to leave Somalia, that is the only way we will get a good president that can build the army, not the current idiots pillaging the country.
We dont need foreign troops in Somalia infact they make things worse. What has AU troops contributed to the war against AS? HSM is definitely either an AS sympathiser or he benefits from this war against AS and is why he is trying to prolong it
 
Who wants to die for a corrupt government that pays poorly, just look at Afganistan, for a army to succeed it needs heart and be rewarded for it, I pray for AU troops to leave Somalia, that is the only way we will get a good president that can build the army, not the current idiots pillaging the country.

Al-Shabaab | Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)
Estimated Annual Revenue ~$100 million | ~$738 million (2023)
Revenue Sources Illicit trade, extortion, taxation | Taxes, grants, international aid
Fiscal Sustainability High (self-funded) | Low (dependent on external aid)
Control Over Revenue Complete (shadow state) | Limited (compromised institutions)

Al-Shabaab: ~5,000 to 10,000 fighters

FGS + Allies: ~15,000 to 20,000 Somali National Army fighters, with additional support from AMISOM and regional militias
You can't get anything done without corruption. I mean these were men selected throughout Somalia by a process of bribing elders, playing favors to businessmen, foreign operatives etc. Most are there to swindle at best.

Why do you think HSM is being forced by the local elite in Banaadir to move away from indirect elections? Aligning the pockets of politicians with progress is the key out of this 4.5 purgatory. Take it as you may!

Everyone is disillusioned with that arrangement. Some more than others it seems.

What I find fascinating is the fact that there seems to be a strong correlation between those who are the most vocal about corruption and the current system of 4.5 and those who demand more of it. Conscious or unconscious?? :icon lol:
 
The recent events in Puntland reinforced this view and showed us what a real competent army and motivated troops were like, in less than a year most of ISIS was totally crushed by Puntland forces.
AS and isis isnt comparable, isis is less then 900 people hiding in the mountains, AS is a large group that controls more then half the south with their own bureaucracy and tax collection which they use to fund themselves while also having deeply infiltrated the fgs and having sympathizers everywhere. everything else I agree with though
 
AS and isis isnt comparable, isis is less then 900 people hiding in the mountains, AS is a large group that controls more then half the south with their own bureaucracy and tax collection which they use to fund themselves while also having deeply infiltrated the fgs and having sympathizers everywhere. everything else I agree with though
So then how do you explain XL constantly going to war with them and repelling them? People need to stop thinking these guys are a juggernaut. It’s just a lack of political will.
 
So then how do you explain XL constantly going to war with them and repelling them? People need to stop thinking these guys are a juggernaut. It’s just a lack of political will.
tends to be easier when half your government isnt in bed with them and are not actively working against and sabotaging your own military, AS was also fighting on multiple fronts at the time
 
So then how do you explain XL constantly going to war with them and repelling them? People need to stop thinking these guys are a juggernaut. It’s just a lack of political will.
XL are the only ones fighting them and they are paying a big price. Casualties and injuries increasing by the day. They can't sustain this for a long time. Better to cut a deal and save your people and hope they get a serious gov who will back them in the future.
 
Corruption plays a role, but the SNA’s biggest weakness is poor intelligence. AS blends in as civilians, then blow themselves up in coordinated attacks. Chaos follows, defense lines break, and soldiers flee. After the 94th attacks, you would think SNA will learn their lessons…..

In direct combat, SNA clears 9/10. That’s why I say 80% of the problem is intel, 20% is weak fortifications. FOBs are wild open. Probably due to budget issues, which ties back to the corruption your talking about

AS were kicked out of all HG towns in GM in 2011–2012. Back when they were at the hight of their power. Since then, every attack they attack, they take massive Ls. They’re far from untouchable. Not even close. Sufis showed that u can permanently remove these cockroaches.
Somali region of Ethiopia is also another good example.
U need a group that strongly oppose them ideologically, or have a tight Intels gathering. If u have both, that will be a huge plus.

Tbh, we were cucked by Gulf arab with this Salafism stuff since the mid ’90s. And Salafism is a step awayfrom Wahhabism. If we want to end this for good, Salafism must be eradicated completely.
 
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Corruption plays a role, but the SNA’s biggest weakness is poor intelligence. AS blends in as civilians, then blow themselves up in coordinated attacks. Chaos follows, defense lines break, and soldiers flee. After the 94th attacks, you would think SNA will learn their lessons…..

In direct combat, SNA clears 9/10. That’s why I say 80% of the problem is intel, 20% is weak fortifications. FOBs are wild open. Probably due to budget issues, which ties back to the corruption your talking about

AS were kicked out of all HG towns in GM in 2011–2012. Back when they were at the hight of their power. Since then, every attack they attack, they take massive Ls. They’re far from untouchable. Not even close. Sufis showed that u can permanently remove these cockroaches.
Somali region of Ethiopia is also another good example.
U need a group that strongly oppose them ideologically, or have a tight Intels gathering. If u have both, that will be a huge plus.

Tbh, we were cucked by Gulf arab with this Salafism stuff since the mid ’90s. And Salafism is a step awayfrom Wahhabism. If we want to end this for good, Salafism must be eradicated completely.
God bless Salafism or Wahhabi or whatever Ahlu-Hadith are labeled these days.
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
AS were kicked out of all HG towns in GM in 2011–2012. Back when they were at the hight of their power. Since then, every attack they attack, they take massive Ls. They’re far from untouchable. Not even close. Sufis showed that u can permanently remove these cockroaches.
Somali region of Ethiopia is also another good example.
U need a group that strongly oppose them ideologically, or have a tight Intels gathering. If u have both, that will be a huge plus.

Ahlu Sade liberated HG from AS. Say thank you @AbdiBashirJR

@Dalalos_ibn_Adali reer Cali mire raga u Matalaan Reer Siyaad Xuseen 💪🔥
 

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