What's stopping Somalia from industrialising at 1900s level of industrialization?

[Throughbred]

Your best bet is to jump straight ahead to the frontier by inviting firms from advanced economies to manufacture in your country. This is what China did and it is what Vietnam is trying to do now.

Indeed, and the reasons those two nations you mentioned had foreign investment were that they have political stability and cheap electricity which is good for business even though both of these nations in the coming years will have issues with aging population .

 

[Macawisley]

I think we are better off as an Italian Overseas territory.

 

[GemState]

Let us say you import old factories, down to the last screw, from a place that is upgrading like India or Indonesia. You begin producing steel, clothing, appliances etc.. of 1960s quality. You then need to sell those 1960s products to remain viable.

Problem #1: Why would Somali consumers buy 1960s products when they can import 2020s products that are probably cheaper?

Solution: you ban the importation of products that compete with those that are locally produced. You are doing import substitution.

Problem #2: Now that you have locked out foreign competitors, the already deeply backward firms no longer have a need to become more efficient/viable. They just sell their shitty products and pocket the money.

Solution: You tell banks to stop lending to the least efficient firms and levy heavy taxes on them. You pick winners and losers. Which firms get loans and favorable taxation, and which ones don’t.

Problem #3: Now that you are in the business of picking winners and losers, how do you prevent state capture(corruption) now that firms know their fate is in the hands of government bureaucrats?

It goes on and on like this. It is a thorny issue that is very hard to get right. Import Substitution Industrialization, or ISI, implemented in the 60s destroyed many African economies in the 70s

Your best bet is to jump straight ahead to the frontier by inviting firms from advanced economies to manufacture in your country. This is what China did and it is what Vietnam is trying to do now.

Is there any developmental plan you can envisage for Somalia to atleast be upper middle income in a few decades, with the exception of just praying for hydrocarbons?

 

[cow]

The low IQ and not controlling the borders. If there was a government that controlled the borders for example they could have put heavy tarrifs on foreign steel, which would then encourage producution of domestic steel. But because there is no government in Somalia. How would any domestic manufacturers compete eith cheap foreign goods?

 

[The Ace]

I don't think we are unable to build factories and locomotive trains, Steel productions of early 1900s.
You've to start somewhere, since we can't jump straight into Industry 4.0 and start producing 2 nanometer chips, vaccines, robotics, let's start building factories that are capable of producing steel, food, clothing, appliances etc.

Start from the basics.
Education standards not just basic literacy; Work ethic. No comment; Reliable and affordable power
; Stability to inspire investor confidence. Assuming a democratic system that means regular elections; An independent justice system

 

[FBIsomalia]

We can do this and more, the issue with Alkabab.

 

[techsamatar]

We should consider following Oman's example, as their architecture aligns with ours. Despite their wealth and oil resources, they opted for a different approach than the UAE, preserving their cultural identity and heritage.

 

[johnsepei5]

Somalis,people in general want to leave their investments where its safe .
Each regions admin should build a factory like state owned factories like India,it will give them a good return and also provide jobs