What happened to the offensive against al shabab

[Camaar]

Anyone have news on the offensive against Al Shabab?
It looks like HSM has given up and is now putting more focus on his reelection instead

 

[Aiman12]

it will likely pick up again when we have received more heavy weapons

 

[JamalFarah]

Like you said, he's focusing on getting the constitution finished to be his magnus opus. If he could do that, he has a strong case to be reelected once more.

Militarily, It seems the government wants to gain foreign support to defend against a scenario of Ethiopian invasion, more so than continuing the operation.

 

[Zak12]

Like you said, he's focusing on getting the constitution finished to be his magnus opus. If he could do that, he has a strong case to be reelected once more.

Militarily, It seems the government wants to gain foreign support to defend against a scenario of Ethiopian invasion, more so than continuing the operation.

I never understood this idea of Ethiopia invading. Why would they and how could they? If they do then that'll earn them heavy sanctioning.

 

[Camaar]

Like you said, he's focusing on getting the constitution finished to be his magnus opus. If he could do that, he has a strong case to be reelected once more.

Militarily, It seems the government wants to gain foreign support to defend against a scenario of Ethiopian invasion, more so than continuing the operation.

But how will Ethiopia invade when they basically control more land in somali than the sfg?

I am afraid al shabab will never be defeated if every govt prioritize reelection over defeating them.

 

[FBIsomalia]

Qoslaya lose many lands than xarmajoo did, what loser .

 

[LiveFrom]

But how will Ethiopia invade when they basically control more land in somali than the sfg?

I am afraid al shabab will never be defeated if every govt prioritize reelection over defeating them.

I never understood this idea of Ethiopia invading. Why would they and how could they? If they do then that'll earn them heavy sanctioning.

Yeah theres already thousands of Ethiopiaian troops in the south legally. If war were declared, the troops would immediately already be within the borders of somalia. Thats the "how"

The "why" , in my opinion, is because:

- his state is on the verge of collapse along ethnic lines, and the best thing to unite your population is pointing at a common enemy (somalia, or eritrea) to unite them through nationalism

-hes on the record that ethiopia has 100mill people that need port access, by diplomacy or by force

-between invading eritrea (war economy country, mandatory conscription, expats pay taxes to the govt to maintain citizenship, have to go through the TPLF) VS invading somalia, the preference from Abiys pov is clear

-ethiopia is already defaulting on its debts to western institutions, and by joining brics is making it clear its not interested in being a part of the western order. Doing something to make the west mad , or recieving sanctions, are threatening but theyre making their bed with china and russia

-somalia had its arms embargo lifted, and cleared its imf debts. A month later, this mou is signed. Theres a case to be made that abiy recognizes that while ethiopia is declining and somalia is slated to rise in regional influence, destabilizing it by war (yes the war will cost ethiopians, but it js always more costly to the invaded) would make perfect sense as a containment strategy. Abiy would be a bad statesman to not consider this imk

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

between invading eritrea (war economy country, mandatory conscription, expats pay taxes to the govt to maintain citizenship, have to go through the TPLF) VS invading somalia, the preference from Abiys pov is clear

I don't think Ethiopia sees a war with Somalia. Somalia at the moment is not in a position to fight a war. It has troops but it needs those to secure it's internal security and it just doesn't have the money (unless some countries are willing open supply lines I can't say). I'm not saying it couldn't happen but it would be a short war leading to the collapse of the FGS because Somalia lacks the command and control and logistics for a war of that nature and it will create a vacuum in which the insurgents will spread.

somalia had its arms embargo lifted, and cleared its imf debts. A month later, this mou is signed. Theres a case to be made that abiy recognizes that while ethiopia is declining and somalia is slated to rise in regional influence, destabilizing it by war (yes the war will cost ethiopians, but it js always more costly to the invaded) would make perfect sense as a containment strategy. Abiy would be a bad statesman to not consider this imk

Somalia has no regional influence and won't for the foreseeable future. Clearing the debts and lifting the arms embargo allows Somalia to replace the existing capacity of ATMIS that it is losing this year. It doesn't gain in the short term, only the medium and long term if things go well. So really, Somalia is at it's weakest point right now and that's probably why this is a good time for the MoU.

 

[Zak12]

Yeah theres already thousands of Ethiopiaian troops in the south legally. If war were declared, the troops would immediately already be within the borders of somalia. Thats the "how"

The "why" , in my opinion, is because:

- his state is on the verge of collapse along ethnic lines, and the best thing to unite your population is pointing at a common enemy (somalia, or eritrea) to unite them through nationalism

-hes on the record that ethiopia has 100mill people that need port access, by diplomacy or by force

-between invading eritrea (war economy country, mandatory conscription, expats pay taxes to the govt to maintain citizenship, have to go through the TPLF) VS invading somalia, the preference from Abiys pov is clear

-ethiopia is already defaulting on its debts to western institutions, and by joining brics is making it clear its not interested in being a part of the western order. Doing something to make the west mad , or recieving sanctions, are threatening but theyre making their bed with china and russia

-somalia had its arms embargo lifted, and cleared its imf debts. A month later, this mou is signed. Theres a case to be made that abiy recognizes that while ethiopia is declining and somalia is slated to rise in regional influence, destabilizing it by war (yes the war will cost ethiopians, but it js always more costly to the invaded) would make perfect sense as a containment strategy. Abiy would be a bad statesman to not consider this imk

Dude stop lmao. Abiy has zero justification to be waging war on Somalia. You claim he can rally his citizens together to find a common enemy but that will not work when the Somalis in Galbeed will be staunchly against such a move and ethnicities like Tigray and Amhara don't view Somalia as a threat. In fact, a war should be the last thing Abiy should search for since he is still reeling from the impact of the Tigray war.

 

[IKHALIIL]

Dude stop lmao. Abiy has zero justification to be waging war on Somalia. You claim he can rally his citizens together to find a common enemy but that will not work when the Somalis in Galbeed will be staunchly against such a move and ethnicities like Tigray and Amhara don't view Somalia as a threat. In fact, a war should be the last thing Abiy should search for since he is still reeling from the impact of the Tigray war.

It's all a distraction from all the problems facing his country on abiy's part. If his army came into somalia, forget galbeed, don't be surprised to see amxaro waltzing into addis and giving us an addis ma nabad baa speech. He is more tied up than somalia is currently.

 

[LiveFrom]

Dude stop lmao. Abiy has zero justification to be waging war on Somalia. You claim he can rally his citizens together to find a common enemy but that will not work when the Somalis in Galbeed will be staunchly against such a move and ethnicities like Tigray and Amhara don't view Somalia as a threat. In fact, a war should be the last thing Abiy should search for since he is still reeling from the impact of the Tigray war.

Im not saying hes justified, or that its a good decision, or that he should do it. My aim was to shed light on why we shouldnt hand wave away the possibility of war, and the rationale for Abiys behaviour.

You dont find it alarming that he hasnt rescinded the mou, and that there are thousands of ethiopian troops ALREADY in somalia? Im not saying itll be a succesful invasion, but if war is waged itll be on Somali soil.

I agree with you that the ethnic divisions make it a very bad choice to look outside, but leaders make bad choices thinking they have the perfect plan. Ofc no one from galbeed will support but galbeed doesnt really hold federal weight from the little I know. As for the other groups, im sure they dont have a problem with somalis today but they will have a problem with whoever is preventing them from getting a port, which will be abiys propaganda cry.

Ill ask something else, did Abiy think that the FGS would let the MoU slide? Surely they thought ahead about the day after and what they are prepared for.