Assessment of the SNA

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Westpoint the most prestigous military academy on earth published an assesment of the SNA to see if they stand a chance after ATMIS exits. This was published last week on april

Somalias future is bleak. Heres the TLDR at the end;

 

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They also made another article a few months ago explaining in detail our failure in offensive operations.

These fundamental flaws are what ive been talking about for years. The SNA is designed to fail, the baffling part is the SNA was largely trained and built up after the war on terror. This is a problem youd expect with legacy armys vs new insurgents!

This second report also explains that HSMs admin putoff Operation Black Lion a coalition of 20k troops dedicated to clearing the Jubbas and KG so that he can clear Hawiye states first. That operation then took too long causing our neighbors to get busy with internal problems and then it failed upon reaching Galgaduud (a flat desert keep in mind we have drones) breaking any morale to revive it. Its like HSM would rather the country be under AS then be free but with more autonomy

 

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Insurgency is based on 7 principles outlined by Mao. The SNA isnt capable of countering on one front.

• Arousing and organizing the people.
• Achieving internal unification politically.
• Establishing bases.
• Equipping forces.
• Recovering national strength.
• Destroying the enemy's national strength.
• Regaining lost territories.

I doubt “pro-government” Somalia will last the next 10 years. Our eritrean trained troops that took a lifetime to train are possibly deserting at a rate of 25%!!!!!

 

[Zak12]

All this because HSM refuses to pay the troops their salary

 

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If KDF/Kenyan ATMIS troops leave Kismaayo today, do you think Al Shabaab have a chance of taking over Kismaayo? The city neighbours the only region that is fully under their control.

Kismayo would be easier to defend then Xamar or Galkacyo. The clan composition, size, and geography all work in its favor. KDFs contribution relative to other states is massively overrated by fkders.

That being said I am convinced that without massive reforms/restructuring of the army/government nothing in Somalia could last cutoff from international support long term including SL/PL.

 

[Magan Joseph]

Kismayo would be easier to defend then Xamar or Galkacyo. The clan composition, size, and geography all work in its favor. KDFs contribution relative to other states is massively overrated by fkders.

I hate it when they downplay the sacrifices our sons have made and continue to make, a Somali guy has to leave his home near the Oromo border in Fiiq, travel for twenty four hours to Kismaayo just to help protect her from Alshabab scums getting anywhere near her meanwhile you have the sons of hooyooyin that scream “kismaayo unuka leh” today literally just chilling 30, 50 or 60 kilometres away from Kismaayo the whole time I still can’t believe this is the reality.

That being said I am convinced that without massive reforms/restructuring of the army/government nothing in Somalia could last cutoff from international support long term including SL/PL.

That’s like trying to find atom sized needle in the middle of the desert during a total solar eclipse massive reforms and reconstruction of the government and the army you say…

 

[Keep it a boqol]

this government is so corrupt. Serving for your nation state that is muslim should be an honourable duty that deserves good pay and benefits for soldiers. The government needs to give salaries and opportunities since a lot of youth lack a way to make halal income

 

[El Nino]

They also made another article a few months ago explaining in detail our failure in offensive operations.

These fundamental flaws are what ive been talking about for years. The SNA is designed to fail, the baffling part is the SNA was largely trained and built up after the war on terror. This is a problem youd expect with legacy armys vs new insurgents!

This second report also explains that HSMs admin putoff Operation Black Lion a coalition of 20k troops dedicated to clearing the Jubbas and KG so that he can clear Hawiye states first. That operation then took too long causing our neighbors to get busy with internal problems and then it failed upon reaching Galgaduud (a flat desert keep in mind we have drones) breaking any morale to revive it. Its like HSM would rather the country be under AS then be free but with more autonomy

That operation was a fantasy, troops from Kenya and Ethiopia liberating somali territory? Would have radicalised 10x more people. Alhamdulillah it did not happen.

 

[datesfrompuntland]

this government is so corrupt. Serving for your nation state that is muslim should be an honourable duty that deserves good pay and benefits for soldiers. The government needs to give salaries and opportunities since a lot of youth lack a way to make halal income

12 mil on 'transport' was what made mute Somalia on twt.

 

[El Nino]

The offensive in Galmudug has failed due to qabyaalad. Clans and subsubclans whose areas have been liberated has happened due to g

Hsm and FGS have failed due to not effecticvely doing reconciliation between clans. Only a daacad government can win over the people from AS.

From that to happen aid needs to be cut off. Its keeping these parasites afloat, them being able to pocket gaalos money and leave crumbs to the general population. With the aid money these parasites, our ”decision makers” are able to insilute themselves from the problems of our country. Alhamdulillah for donor fatigue and the war on Ukraine.

AMISOMS future funding is still uncertain. EU is not footing the bill, they are adamant on exiting. Their role as the last deterrent ( a vert weak one at that) is coming to the end and the gov at Xamar has to finally defend itself.

 

[Gaandheri]

@Hilmaam already reported on this foreign forces also aren’t leaving anytime soon.

 

[TekNiKo]

When will you guys realize Al Shabab is simply the Anglo American arm of destabilization in the region funded by the CIA to create a forever war in Somalia?

They dont WANT SNA to ever succeed, a weak divided and conflict ridden nation makes it alot easier to steal precious resources unabated. Our nation is simply a pawn in a corporate chessboard being devoured.

 

[World]

When will you guys realize Al Shabab is simply the Anglo American arm of destabilization in the region funded by the CIA to create a forever war in Somalia?

They dont WANT SNA to ever succeed, a weak divided and conflict ridden nation makes it alot easier to steal precious resources unabated. Our nation is simply a pawn in a corporate chessboard being devoured.

Unfortunately, we are a resource poor nation with nothing worth exploiting and stealing in the first place.

 

[Killamenace78]

When will you guys realize Al Shabab is simply the Anglo American arm of destabilization in the region funded by the CIA to create a forever war in Somalia?

They dont WANT SNA to ever succeed, a weak divided and conflict ridden nation makes it alot easier to steal precious resources unabated. Our nation is simply a pawn in a corporate chessboard being devoured.

Don’t blame the west for alshabab blame your people and especially those gulf nations

 

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That operation was a fantasy, troops from Kenya and Ethiopia liberating somali territory? Would have radicalised 10x more people. Alhamdulillah it did not happen.

They are beyond just being radicalized at this point. Foreign troops also freed pretty much every notable city south of Galkacyo. The KDF were just weaker and smaller then Uganda/Ethiopia and Middle Jubba was more challenging.

There isnt a way in hell the SNA that had its back broken in Central Galgaduud can gain the capacity to effectively fight AS. We are already 2-3 times the size of AS, hastily training more troops was never the solution!!!

Let me remind you of the stat sheet prior to that battle/collapse…

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[El Nino]

They are beyond just being radicalized at this point. Foreign troops also freed pretty much every notable city south of Galkacyo. The KDF were just weaker and smaller then Uganda/Ethiopia and Middle Jubba was more challenging.

There isnt a way in hell the SNA that had its back broken in Central Galgaduud can gain the capacity to effectively fight AS. We are already 2-3 times the size of AS, hastily training more troops was never the solution!!!

Let me remind you of the stat sheet prior to that battle/collapse…

Spoiler

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Galmudug front collapsed due to qabyaalad. I forgot to add to my previous posts that the areas liberated in GM have been the areas of clans who are receptive to FGS.

Areas held by AS are by clans and subsubclans loyal to them. That simple.

Reconciliation and clear cut power sharing is needed. Competent FGS could bribe most of AS footsoldiers and higher commanders. True believers would be killed and families/communities paid hush money. Reconciliating and showing good results would sway away most of the shacab.

 

[Samatar03]

Unfortunately, we are a resource poor nation with nothing worth exploiting and stealing in the first place.

Other than qubuuro, but I doubt anyone else wants that.

 

[Noble]

They also made another article a few months ago explaining in detail our failure in offensive operations.

These fundamental flaws are what ive been talking about for years. The SNA is designed to fail, the baffling part is the SNA was largely trained and built up after the war on terror. This is a problem youd expect with legacy armys vs new insurgents!

This second report also explains that HSMs admin putoff Operation Black Lion a coalition of 20k troops dedicated to clearing the Jubbas and KG so that he can clear Hawiye states first. That operation then took too long causing our neighbors to get busy with internal problems and then it failed upon reaching Galgaduud (a flat desert keep in mind we have drones) breaking any morale to revive it. Its like HSM would rather the country be under AS then be free but with more autonomy

The 2nd report does not mention operation black lion (2nd Phase) which was never going to happen regardless even if the Central Somalia succeeded as it has neither the capacity nor the willingness of regional states especially with bottom rock relations with Ethiopia.

 

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The 2nd report does not mention operation black lion (2nd Phase) which was never going to happen regardless even if the Central Somalia succeeded as it has neither the capacity nor the willingness of regional states especially with bottom rock relations with Ethiopia.
View attachment 327946

1. It was mentioned 15 times in that report(use word search)
2. Although there were challenges we can see in hindsight, it was ultimately put off by the FGS to focus on GM/HS.
3. Relations with Ethiopia soured much later and they are still active in Somalia anyways

Outside of clan loyalty there is no advantage in removing AS from GM rather then focusing on their capital(Jilib). One of the main tenents of counterinsurgency is to deny your enemy any safehaven.

@DR OSMAN has his case made for him, Xamar is time and time again choosing to hold states back in the name of keeping leverage and preventing autonomy.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Somalia isn't viable as a state made up of clan interests that's the problem.

You need those interests to align and stay aligned for a long period of time until the state can establish itself. You can't do that without some kind of external threat. Right now seems like a lot of clans are resisting the government due to historical grievances or trying to avoid being politically and militarily dominated by groups in the centre.

When they were restarting the Somali state they began in the captital but the interests in the capital are not the same as those in the periphery. In fact it looks like you have a weird situation where the centre is trying to protect itself from the periphery to maintain certain interests and power. This is a weird one. Somalia is a unique case that kind of breaks the system. Nothing will work if clan interests are the basis of state formation.

Somaliland on the other hand is viable as a clan interest state because the centre isn't different from the periphery because it's the same group of people. There's a strong external threat that keeps groups unified.