US armed forces hearing committee on Al Shabaab
- Thread starter Gaandheri
- Start date
"Where the SNA most needs help is in reinforcing battlefield gains and
providing resilient security for development of sustainable local governance that can root out
lingering al-Shabaab influences."
Essentially what a lot of folks have been saying. The greatest gain was when local clans were willing to fight and hold their won land. Unfortunately locals in the deep south are more inclined to support AS due to them ruling for decades. There has to be incentive to locals to begin mobilization and combat against AS on their own land. Otherwise we're stuck fighting the same battle constantly.
providing resilient security for development of sustainable local governance that can root out
lingering al-Shabaab influences."
Essentially what a lot of folks have been saying. The greatest gain was when local clans were willing to fight and hold their won land. Unfortunately locals in the deep south are more inclined to support AS due to them ruling for decades. There has to be incentive to locals to begin mobilization and combat against AS on their own land. Otherwise we're stuck fighting the same battle constantly.
They're saying it's not a matter of resources but a matter of political will. There's no united somali front in the fight against AS. People don't understand defeating them is a matter of survival for our nations future no matter if you're from Zeila or Ras Kamboni.
Props to you for linking the source @Gaandheri.
Props to you for linking the source @Gaandheri.
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Read the source further, it says international funding for ATMIS beyond this year is unresolved. Because of that trend, USAFRICOM will continue to reinforce security cooperation programs that renergises partnerships with African militaries.
ATMIS/AMISOM was mostly funded by EU and UN. Gaalada are slowly closing the money taps for african countries, finally.
ATMIS leaving means that the last deterrence for FGS against AS is gone. Those in power cannot just ignore AS anymore, same goes to AS leaders. There will be a showdown or a negotiation, likely the latter. I just want this stalemate that we see today end.
ATMIS/AMISOM was mostly funded by EU and UN. Gaalada are slowly closing the money taps for african countries, finally.
ATMIS leaving means that the last deterrence for FGS against AS is gone. Those in power cannot just ignore AS anymore, same goes to AS leaders. There will be a showdown or a negotiation, likely the latter. I just want this stalemate that we see today end.
What would the negotiations look like and what would the terms be? January 2025 do you predict there will be 0 ATMIS troops left or HSM might ask for extension?Read the source further, it says international funding for ATMIS beyond this year is unresolved. Because of that trend, USAFRICOM will continue to reinforce security cooperation programs that renergises partnerships with African militaries.
ATMIS/AMISOM was mostly funded by EU and UN. Gaalada are slowly closing the money taps for african countries, finally.
ATMIS leaving means that the last deterrence for FGS against AS is gone. Those in power cannot just ignore AS anymore, same goes to AS leaders. There will be a showdown or a negotiation, likely the latter. I just want this stalemate that we see today end.
This stalemate should most definitely end. Its why we are in this constant state of limbo
Terms would be amnesty for AS leaderships and the commanders in exchange to stopping hostilities and takfiiring the FGS. The FGS should be in position of strenght though. I would honestly take house arrest (confine them to Jilib and monitor them) for Arsenal leadership and over the years neutralise their influence so they become like todays 90s warlords who have retired.
The position of strenght is achieved by clearing AS from anywhere close to Muqdisho, that means clearing them from MS, LS, Hiraan and the highway to Baidoa.
MS is free, same with half of Hiraan. LS must be cleared out but that will be tricky. Genuine caln reconciliation must happen which I don’t think will happen. Clearing AS from the highway to Baidoa and the cities outskirts will harm AS badly. They are extorting a city with more then a million people, that must be stopped.
The offensive against AS is Galmudug will remain in a stalemate until the clans and the subclans resolve their issue.
Hsm would look very weak if he asks ATMIS to remain. In this era of social media, he would be crucified and lose support from everywhere. But anything can happen, somali politicians cannot be trusted.
Why would al shabab consent to this? they were not ready to negotiate or surrender when amisom was at its peak and you foolishly think they will do it when amisom are not here?
Somalia have two options; amisom extends their mandate indefinitely or shabab takeover through negotiation or war
Al sheydaan are not as strong as they used to be. They have lost most of GM and HS. Their extortion of Banaadir has also been reduced. Only thing they have been left is KGS, JL and western Hiraan.
Al sheydaans sources of income home and abroad have been targeted. They are less under equipped then FGS. Their days of glory is over.
FGS can reconcile with the clans under AS. Putting Roobow on charge of KGS would significantly reduce the support of AS in koonfur galbeed. Same case in GM. Some clans just need support for their Macawiisleys and they will drive away.
You think AS can work with just ideological support? You are gravely mistaken. Money talks and Al sheydaan have been after it the most. They are a mafia for hire. They can be taken down.
Al Shabab was way stronger than AMISOM. Their "peak" was nothing since they barely made any gains after liberating Mogadishu
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