UN Road Map to End War in Yemen

[GaradShabeel]

 

[GaradShabeel]

Yemen's warring parties have committed to a new ceasefire and agreed to engage in a UN-led peace process to end the war, the UN envoy for Yemen said Saturday.

Following a series of meetings in Saudi Arabia and Oman, a statement by the office of UN special envoy Hans Grundberg said he "welcomes the parties' commitment to a set of measures to implement a nation-wide ceasefire, improve living conditions in Yemen, and (to) engage in preparations for the resumption of an inclusive political process".

The envoy "will now engage with the parties to establish a road map under UN auspices that includes these commitments and supports their implementation," the statement added.

The plan, along with a ceasefire, will also include the two sides’ commitment to resume oil exports, pay all public sector salaries, open roads in Taiz and other parts of Yemen, and “further ease restrictions on Sanaa Airport and the Hodeidah port”, it added.

https://www.barrons.com/news/yemen-warring-parties-agree-to-implement-new-ceasefire-un-0c59150d
https://osesgy.unmissions.org/update-efforts-secure-un-roadmap-end-war-yemen

 

[Lahaine]

Never thought that Yemen was more hopeful than somalia.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Never thought that Yemen was more hopeful than somalia.
View attachment 308604

It will take lots of efforts for this peace initiative to give long lasting peace and political stability in Yemen. Nothing is for certain yet.

With that said, the difference between Somalia and Yemen is that Houthis are open to negotiating with their gov't while AS have closed the door for that option since day one. Which only leaves you with the choice of fighting AS until they are totally gone.

 

[Aiman12]

arent they about to get xooged by the us and 20 other countries?

 

[GaradShabeel]

arent they about to get xooged by the us and 20 other countries?

I think it will be more defensive rather than offensive operations to deter the Houthis from their actions of targeting ships in the region. If they continue, then you may possibly see airstrike targeting their positions inside Yemen.

 

[hayran]

houthis consoliated power in the area where the vast majority of yemens pop lives + saudis gave up on the war.

i don't think this civil war is over yet in the long term

 

[GaradShabeel]

This UN-led initiative means that KSA will have to step aside (now that the warring sides are onboard) and leave the job to the UN to find a political system that satisfy both sides. But KSA will definitely still have some type of influence through the Yemen government.

 

[GaradShabeel]

houthis consoliated power in the area where the vast majority of yemens pop lives + saudis gave up on the war.

i don't think this civil war is over yet in the long term

It will surely take a good time before the war ends, but the recent development in the region as of late points towards a possible end of the conflict soon. Iran and KSA agreed to re-establish ties this year. Houthis visited KSA in September for the first time since the war began etc.

Population isn't the main factor deciding the fate of Yemen. I'd say that land is more important. The Yemeni gov't & Co. still controls vast land in the south and east.

This is a map from last year, but it's roughly the same today.

 

[hinters]

Never thought that Yemen was more hopeful than somalia.
View attachment 308604

It's more stable, the average person is way more wealthy

 

[Lahaine]

It's more stable, the average person is way rmore wealthy

I seriously thought we were at least better than Yemen even though our situation is bad but it seems I was wrong

 

[hinters]

I seriously thought we were at least better than Yemen even though our situation is bad but it seems I was wrong
View attachment 308608

Yeah same, I searched up the stats, it's crazy how poor Somalia is

 

[JustSomeGuy]

I think it will be more defensive rather than offensive operations to deter the Houthis from their actions of targeting ships in the region. If they continue, then you may possibly see airstrike targeting their positions inside Yemen.

Makes no sense that it took this long, America once again making themselves look weak and they will be surprised when more terrorist groups show up attacking international trade... They should've retaliated the first time and reduced them to dust. But 2024 election is coming very soon and Biden does not want to be seen as a war monger is my guess as to why the USA hasn't obliterated the Houthis yet.

 

[New World]

Yeah same, I searched up the stats, it's crazy how poor Somalia is

Why are we so poor? For Yemen, it might be due to trade with Saudis

 

[Emir of Zayla]

Why are we so poor? For Yemen, it might be due to trade with Saudis

I don’t think the economic stats we have for Somalia is accurate, we’d have to wait until we stabilize and redo all the surveys and etc to actually have accurate info

 

[JustSomeGuy]

Why are we so poor? For Yemen, it might be due to trade with Saudis

I mean, some sectors are booming with little to no regulation. It might seem good now but what happens when the government is finally in full control of the country? How are small businesses supposed to enter the market when some Somali businesses have a complete monopoly? Monopoly is a bad thing anyway, what happens when the company fails or is temporarily out of service? The whole country would shutdown, especially if its a network provider.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

I don’t think the economic stats we have for Somalia is accurate, we’d have to wait until we stabilize and redo all the surveys and etc to actually have accurate info

Agreed.

 

[New World]

I mean, some sectors are booming with little to no regulation. It might seem good now but what happens when the government is finally in full control of the country? How are small businesses supposed to enter the market when some Somali businesses have a complete monopoly? Monopoly is a bad thing anyway, what happens when the company fails or is temporarily out of service? The whole country would shutdown, especially if its a network provider.

Or We could follow the South Korean approach of allowing a small number of companies to become very large, such as Samsung.

 

[Emir of Zayla]

Agreed.

You should read on of the posts that Alchemist made, he talks a bit more in detail about how the informal economy is quite huge and larger than the formal economy in Somalia and could also apply to Somaliweyn as well.

The informal economy has scaling problems if it doesn't directly interact to expand the formal economy in a structural sense. The health of the "economy" is terrible if the informal economic complex dominates.

This does not mean the informality of economic interaction is a negative drive. It is a shadow coping mechanism for broader formal systemic operational failures. The goal is to enrich the informal while setting up institutions to verify its interactive significance, thus establishing and creating better connective networks across economic principalities.

One can say that the informal economy is also a scaling down of new flexible economic principles for people to maintain market integrity amidst systemic insecurities, as well, so it helps bring economic influence to the average person, lowering the barriers for participatory entry for the average household. The scaling capacity might be infrastructure-wise hampered, but people can enter expediently on informal synergistic grounds.

The future hinges on providing a healthy bridge between a formal set-up for the informal participants to cross back and forth, inducing productivity and value and providing flexible informal leeway without destroying the financial maneuverability of the informal economic actors. Further providing legislative standard health measures to safeguard good economic participation by people in the informal economy as it usually is held to a lower standard.

However, true growth needs formalizing frameworks. As mentioned, the hidden/"unofficial" economy is for interconnected small-scale micro and minor enterprises oriented. A country-wide scaling capacity for millions of people, with tremendous economic growth can only take place under partly disciplined strategic circumstances.

I have a personal theory. We can observe the economic reality, the true skeletal interconnected economic profile of the broader Somali peninsula going into adjacent economic shadows of neighboring countries, even are tremendously complex from a free-flow market nature perspective. My theory says, that the more complicated a low-scaling informal system is, as it is closer to the ground-based lifeline, the greater the immediate rate of growth it can receive if partly formalized, but also the capacity for the scale of growth is high-reaching.

This was a half-assed text from a political infrastructure perspective going into economic speculatory theory from over a year ago as a response to a guy who talked about Somalia (I had written a better rough draft of this theory, but it is lost, so bear with the context):



There is some new scholarship that has been produced in the Somali Peninsula, published months ago. It is another subject that proadly goes into the broadeer topic at hand:

 

[JustSomeGuy]

Or We could follow the South Korean approach of allowing a small number of companies to become very large, such as Samsung.

Korean society is dystopian, they work some of the longest hours, more than Japan. And Japan is already so bad that its common to see people sleeping on the train or on the street because they spend their whole weekend at work. And the birth rate is abysmal. They have such extreme culture norms as well, with average weight being looked down on as ''fat''. Insane amount of peer pressure, with the highest suicide rate in the world.

We should not copy everything, just take what works and leave the rest.