UGUS (Al-Shabaab) active in Kenya

[Man with a garuun]

 

[Man with a garuun]

 

[GaradShabeel]

How did AS manage to establish a foothold in Kenya, but not in Ethiopia? You would think that with all of the political mayhem of Ethiopia, that they would take advantage of the constant instability there. But Kenya for some reason have appealed them more.

 

[convincation]

How did AS manage to establish a foothold in Kenya, but not in Ethiopia? You would think that with all of the political mayhem of Ethiopia, that they would take advantage of the constant instability there. But Kenya for some reason have appealed them more.

I’ve always wondered this. They scream “gaalka hala dilo” in 99.99% Muslim Somalia but have never even spoke out about the 2 giant Christian nations next door who also occupy Somali territory.

 

[GaradShabeel]

I’ve always wondered this. They scream “gaalka hala dilo” in 99.99% Muslim Somalia but have never even spoke out about the 2 giant Christian nations next door who also occupy Somali territory.

Someone needs to do a study on them. If we take a look at other islamist militant groups like Taliban; it makes sense for them to only engage in Afghanistan, since their aim was creating an Islamic emirate within their internationally recognized borders of Afghanistan.

But AS subscribe to AQ, who are more or less a pan-Islamist organization, that aims at taking over the entire world. Then begs the question you're also wondering, why Somalia instead of Kenya/Ethiopia, two non-muslim countries, who also controls Somali inhabited lands.

Thank God, Somalis have seen through their deception. Which is why they've resorted to terrorizing our people.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

How did AS manage to establish a foothold in Kenya, but not in Ethiopia? You would think that with all of the political mayhem of Ethiopia, that they would take advantage of the constant instability there. But Kenya for some reason have appealed them more.

I’ve always wondered this. They scream “gaalka hala dilo” in 99.99% Muslim Somalia but have never even spoke out about the 2 giant Christian nations next door who also occupy Somali territory.

The people there just don't support them, same reason why AS presence is nonexistant in Somaliland despite their top officials hailing from there.

 

[Man with a garuun]

I’ve always wondered this. They scream “gaalka hala dilo” in 99.99% Muslim Somalia but have never even spoke out about the 2 giant Christian nations next door who also occupy Somali territory.

Ethiopia and Kenya have stable countries and capable security forces. So for groups like Al-Shabaab to operate, they need a vaccuum where the security forces are not strong and where the national government is weak. So this is what they're active in Somalia but fail to operate in Kenya and Ethiopia.

Besides, these type of groups are death squad and would use any slogan in order to fool the masses.

 

[GaradShabeel]

The people there just don't support them, same reason why AS presence is nonexistant in Somaliland despite their top officials hailing from there.

Yeah, their strongholds are places where they have local support. But most of their lands were captured by exploiting (clan or political) turmoils. Once they've establish themselves somewhere (including places with few sympathizers), it's one hell of a task to get rid of them. Their tactic is to put fear into people, so they never revolt against them. Which is why they've been able to reign for so long.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Ethiopia and Kenya have stable countries and capable security forces. So for groups like Al-Shabaab to operate, they need a vaccuum where the security forces are not strong and where the national government is weak. So this is what they're active in Somalia but fail to operate in Kenya and Ethiopia.

Besides, these type of groups are death squad and would use any slogan in order to fool the masses.

Your analogy of Ethiopia isn't fully correct. It has been unstable for quite some time, ever since the death of Meles. Considering AS's decreasing land and influence in Somalia, one would assume that they would take advantage of Ethiopia's internal mess. Especially considering how Ethiopia couldn't even fully win over ONLF or OLA during Meles' rule. Yeah, they were able to have the upper hand, but not get rid of them altogether. Imagine militants like AS will no regards to human lives and a more brutal approach? They would've far better than other active armed struggles.

When contrasting Kenya and Ethiopia alone, Kenya seem to have a failed strategy in combatting any spillover from Somalia's civil war. Ethiopia decided to 'intervene' as early as the 90s by creating a presence inside Somalia and growing their influence over time. Hence, why there are a buffer-zone outside of their country today, to deal with any security threats. AS tried last year inside DDS, but was smashed with the quickness.

Kenya have compromised on their border security by (rightfully) not interfering in Somalia until much later on. By then, AS controlled all of the borders between Kenya and Somalia, making it easier to move into Kenyan territory, which AS still maintains until today.