U.S. is now negotiating with the Taliban. Would negotiations work with al-Shabab? - Washington Post

Farm

VIP
In his State of the Union address, President Trump announced that the United States is conducting talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan to end the United States’ longest war, because “the hour has come to at least try for peace.” These talks reflect what scholarship has found: Most anti-insurgency wars end in conference rooms, not on battlefields.

However, the administration has not publicly applied that logic to another major counterinsurgency effort: Somalia. A January assault in Nairobi, leaving more than 20 dead, reminded the world that the Somalia-based Islamist militant group al-Shabab can still inflict terror inside and outside Somalia, despite more than a decade of internationally supported military campaigns to crush it.

Has the military approach reached its limits?

Guided by counterterror intervention strategies, the United States, Britain and the European Union have supported the multinational African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) with funds and training and sought to build up the Somali national army as a counterinsurgent force. The United States has launched scores of drone strikes and armed raids against al-Shabab leaders and fighters. It has also deployed more than 500 troops to Somalia under the pretext of supporting regional stability.

Initially, AMISOM and the Somali army drove al-Shabab out of Somalia’s major cities and ports and into inland strongholds. But the war has been in a stalemate since then. The Somali army and its international partners have not been able to push al-Shabab farther back or stop the group’s assassinations and bombings, such as an October 2017 attack that left more than 500 civilians dead in Mogadishu.


To prevent al-Shabab from regaining territory, AMISOM needs more funding and troops. But international donors are tiring of the indefinite commitment and are planning troop reductions. Meanwhile, the Somali army is plagued with corruption and mismanagement, making it unlikely to be able to lead the fight against al-Shabab alone. Given these challenges and widespread fatigue among Somalis, the militarized approach appears unlikely to bring a decisive victory or a conclusive peace.

Our research shows that counterterror may be counterproductive

For the past two years, we have worked with the international peace-building organization Saferworld to research constructive alternatives to the counterterror approach in Somalia. This entailed more than 300 interviews with community members, politicians and elders from government- and al-Shabab-held areas. We also conducted an extensive literature review involving countries around the world that have, since the 1990s, concluded civil wars against insurgent movements.

Policymakers and local communities we talked to throughout Somalia increasingly feel that military counterterror operations are not moving Somalia toward a durable peace. AMISOM and the Somali army measure success by metrics such as how many al-Shabab leaders and fighters they kill and how much territory the group occupies. But death and acreage are poor measures of peace and stability. Nor does the military effort provide an effective response to the poverty, corrupt and dysfunctional government, collapsed justice institutions, and displacement that enable al-Shabab to retain support and act as a shadow government in the areas it controls.

Many of the people we interviewed said that military attacks on al-Shabab have actually made life worse, especially in areas under the group’s control. When it perceives a military threat of elimination, al-Shabab ramps up its efforts to control territory and populations, protect against infiltrators and spies, and generate revenue for its war effort. That leads to heightened paranoia, distrust, oppression, punishment and harsh taxation in al-Shabab territory.

While AMISOM, the Somali army and U.S. airstrikes have killed many top al-Shabab leaders, they are regularly replaced by successors who are even more determined to launch high-profile attacks against the government and civilians. Civilian deaths during botched military operations by the Somali army and international allies exacerbate popular grievances over inadequate judicial and security services and sexual abuse and looting by military forces. Those grievances, according to the U.N. Development Program and other researchers, drive recruits to extremist groups such as al-Shabab.


Is it time to consider negotiated alternatives?

If counterterror action fails, how can conflicts against insurgencies end? According to research by political scientist Seth Jones and Rand researcher Martin Libicki, dialogue and political agreements are more likely to end these conflicts than military victory by either side. This was true in the peace processes that ended Northern Ireland’s 30-year “Troubles” in 1998, the 40-year conflict between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the government of the Philippines in 2012 and the 52-year conflict between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and the Colombian government in 2016. Talking, not fighting, ended these wars.

Has the time come to discuss whether exploring dialogue with al-Shabab could succeed where the drones and bombs have not? The group’s attacks on civilians and its allegiance to al-Qaeda have made it a notorious pariah and an unpalatable negotiating partner. But we found that Somali policymakers and ordinary people have stopped believing that military victory is possible and have a strong appetite for negotiation.In one limited sample of 70 Somalis we interviewed in government- and al-Shabab-controlled areas, 70 percent indicated that they would support dialogue to end the conflict. Meanwhile, political scientists Mahdi Abdile and Anneli Botha have found that although al-Shabab’s leadership has not clearly signaled interest in negotiating, some commanders are open to the idea.

The historical cases we studied indicate that years of patient negotiation and multiple rounds of failed agreements can be expected. Some Somalis and international actors with whom we spoke feared that peace could mean that al-Shabab members will not be held responsible for crimes against civilians. But other countries torn apart by conflict have used transitional justice and reconciliation methods to move toward peace, including in Rwanda and South Africa. Politicians may hesitate, fearing failure, but comparative research suggests that even failed peace processes can reduce overall violence.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...h-the-taliban-would-that-work-with-al-shabab/
 

Shaolin23

Seeker of knowledge and truth
@Farm

Taliban is a Sunni Deobandi Islamist movement although they are hardcore in violence as well they are diametrically different in ideology and principles to what Al Shabab is who are a trans-national takfiri jihadist group loyal to the global Al Qaeda network there is absolutely no negotiating with them they wouldn’t even accept it imo Taliban has a political wing you can actually sit down and talk with to see what their aims and goals are,Al Shabab doesn’t have this if i had to compare what the Taliban was in Somalia I would say is the now defunct Islamic Courts Union
 

Farm

VIP
@Farm

Taliban is a Sunni Deobandi Islamist movement although they are hardcore in violence as well they are diametrically different in ideology and principles to what Al Shabab is who are a trans-national takfiri jihadist group loyal to the global Al Qaeda network there is absolutely no negotiating with them they wouldn’t even accept it imo Taliban has a political wing you can actually sit down and talk with to see what their aims and goals are,Al Shabab doesn’t have this if i had to compare what the Taliban was in Somalia I would say is the now defunct Islamic Courts Union

How do you defeat them then ? Isn’t it practically impossible?
 

Shaolin23

Seeker of knowledge and truth
How do you defeat them then ? Isn’t it practically impossible?
Very difficult but not impossible step number one would be to secure all of the country militarily with disciplined Somali army step number two is left to a capable internal security forces and intelligence agencies to flush terrorists and their supporters and to disrupt their networks catching their leaders and putting them before court and sending the foot soldiers to rehabilitation camps
Thirdly you need to un-brain wash the population from their Takfiri dogma with real Islam constantly spreading propaganda against Takfirism and at the same time promoting Sunnism im afraid this will be costly in lives and money also it will take another generation at least because Takfirism has entrenched itself in our country since 1991 to win with might is easy to destroy an ideology to completely defeat the enemy once and for all is one of the most difficult things to do
 

Karim

I could agree with you but then we’d both be wrong
HALYEEY
VIP
Very difficult but not impossible step number one would be to secure all of the country militarily with disciplined Somali army step number two is left to a capable internal security forces and intelligence agencies to flush terrorists and their supporters and to disrupt their networks catching their leaders and putting them before court and sending the foot soldiers to rehabilitation camps
Thirdly you need to un-brain wash the population from their Takfiri dogma with real Islam constantly spreading propaganda against Takfirism and at the same time promoting Sunnism im afraid this will be costly in lives and money also it will take another generation at least because Takfirism has entrenched itself in our country since 1991 to win with might is easy to destroy an ideology to completely defeat the enemy once and for all is one of the most difficult things to do
You can't precisely defeat insurgency even if your military and police forces are powerful. We need to negotiate with them. The Somali people are tired of this endless war.
 

Crow

Make Hobyo Great Again
VIP
I don't want the FGS to make a power sharing agreement with Al Shabaab to govern the entire country just because some southern clans are predisposed to degeneracy. It's not fair to us normal Somali clans.

Let's wait and see how these Taliban negotiations go first. Maybe we can find another way.
 

Shaolin23

Seeker of knowledge and truth
You can't precisely defeat insurgency even if your military and police forces are powerful. We need to negotiate with them. The Somali people are tired of this endless war.
You think you can negotiate with people that think if you don’t follow their beliefs you’re a kuffar and your blood is halal your very naive about their ideology
 

SomaliWadaniSoldier

When will Xaarmaajo stop fearing Abiy?
Interahamwe
VIP
Never negotiate with Alshabab terrorists.
Clans who are allied to Alshabab must be exterminated. To start with Murusade, some of rahanwein, jaeeerweyne. Their towns must be fully destroyed. As punishment for supporting terrorism.

If it was Islamic Courts Union(Islamic nationalistic fighters similar to Taliban), i would favour negotiation.

But Alshabab is different story. They kill merciless civilians.

It is time to call Putin. He will turn Shabeellaha Hoose,Jubada dhexe and much of Gedo,Bay & Bakool and Galgaduud into a hell.
 
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Karim

I could agree with you but then we’d both be wrong
HALYEEY
VIP
Never negotiate with Alshabab terrorists.
Clans who are allied to Alshabab must be exterminated.


It is time to call Putin. He will turn Shabeellaha Hoose,Jubada dhexe and much of Gedo,Bay & Bakool and Galgaduud into a hell.
"Clans who are allied to Alshabab must be exterminated".
Are you advocating for the extermination of Hawiye and Rahanwayn?
 

SomaliWadaniSoldier

When will Xaarmaajo stop fearing Abiy?
Interahamwe
VIP
"Clans who are allied to Alshabab must be exterminated".
Are you advocating for the extermination of Hawiye and Rahanwayn?
Many Hawiye(Murusade, duduble, southern cayr), most of Darood(MX and MJ) and Half of Rahanwein supports terrorism.

Yes i advocate for their destruction to save Somalia
 
kkkk Bush proudly boasted 'we don't negotiate with terrorists' after the Taliban offered to hand over Osama if the US provided any credible evidence incriminating him for the 9/11 bombings, now they're sitting down on the negotiating table with them on equal footing. These Pashtun terrorists are nothing like the Wahabbi dogs who are a hired gun with no vision or end goal, the Taliban has real political ambitions and happen to outright control 65% of Afghanistan. The west has abstained from labeling them a terrorist group to foster dialogue, now the US is rushing to be the peace brokers since Putin has entered the fray. All the US wants is to be left in peace to continue the 1.5 trillion a year heroine trade, looting minerals such as iron, copper, cobalt, gold and lithium is a bonus the money is in the opium fields:manny:
 
Never negotiate with Alshabab terrorists.
Clans who are allied to Alshabab must be exterminated. To start with Murusade, some of rahanwein, jaeeerweyne. Their towns must be fully destroyed. As punishment for supporting terrorism.

If it was Islamic Courts Union(Islamic nationalistic fighters similar to Taliban), i would favour negotiation.

But Alshabab is different story. They kill merciless civilians.

It is time to call Putin. He will turn Shabeellaha Hoose,Jubada dhexe and much of Gedo,Bay & Bakool and Galgaduud into a hell.
Mudane what do we have that we can offer to Putin? We must offer him first rights to the uranium in Dhusomareb now that he needs more nukes. In return bombing campaigns must be nonstop for 3 months minimum sida edeb iyo usluub loo barro kuwaan

:mjhaps:
 

Shaolin23

Seeker of knowledge and truth
Many Hawiye(Murusade, duduble, southern cayr), most of Darood(MX and MJ) and Half of Rahanwein supports terrorism.

Yes i advocate for their destruction to save Somalia
Your crazy nearly all MJ and MX a fiercely anti-terrorist there’s only 2 sub clans of MX and 1 MJ sub clan that actively support the Khawarij
 

SomaliWadaniSoldier

When will Xaarmaajo stop fearing Abiy?
Interahamwe
VIP
Your crazy nearly all MJ and MX a fiercely anti-terrorist there’s only 2 sub clans of MX and 1 MJ sub clan that actively support the Khawarij


Muumin's clan must be annihilated sxb. Dont fool urself.

For Somalia to survive some clans must be destroyed.
U know deep down that is the only solution.
 

Maxamed bin Harti

KAAH 2021
VIP
You cant negotiate with these dogs who see anyone else as murtads, we gotta cut thier funding and make sure they dont control a inch of land. Lets try that first.
 
We need a president like Asad we can live peaceful while we have terrorist among our admist. We need to bomb heck out of mogadishu and all southern towns
 

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