The unraveling of FGS counterinsurgency

[Neptune]

Al-Shabaab’s 2025 Offensive and the Unraveling of Somalia’s Federal Counterinsurgency - The Soufan Center

On July 20, al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, recaptured the towns of Sabiid and Anole, located roughly 40 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. The takeover followed the abrupt withdrawal of African Union forces, primarily Ugandan troops, and Somali...

thesoufancenter.org

 

[Neptune]

I don't like how the author frames the international focus on PL compared to the south as an imbalance. The latter has received billions and over a decade of military support. Of course America will center its efforts on the more effective side that's showing results. I don't even think HSM is interested in another offensive. He is focused on fighting the FMS.

 

[Medeea]

A lobbies

The National Consultative Conference (NCC) in May which was not attended by two of the most populous and military significant regions of Somalia, Puntland and Jubaland, highlighted political fragmentation and firm disagreement with President Mohamud’s perceived push to centralize executive power and weaken the federal model. While renewed cooperation on national security was expounded upon at the NCC, SCC-Kaatumo –– located in northern Somalia –– was recognized as a federal member state. The formal recognition without participation from the Darood-level regions of Jubaland and Puntland does not bode well for counterterrorism cooperation.”


The guy’s clearly not that knowledgeable. Just a very bias lobbyist getting paid by either garowe town or the UAE.

 

[Neptune]

A lobbies

The National Consultative Conference (NCC) in May which was not attended by two of the most populous and military significant regions of Somalia, Puntland and Jubaland, highlighted political fragmentation and firm disagreement with President Mohamud’s perceived push to centralize executive power and weaken the federal model. While renewed cooperation on national security was expounded upon at the NCC, SCC-Kaatumo –– located in northern Somalia –– was recognized as a federal member state. The formal recognition without participation from the Darood-level regions of Jubaland and Puntland does not bode well for counterterrorism cooperation.”


The guy’s clearly not that knowledgeable. Just a very bias lobbyist getting paid by either garowe town or the UAE.

This has already been discussed by other large publications before. HSM is clearly centralizing power. The world is noticing how he is spending more time on politics than security. There's no bias, it's just the reality of the current situation.

 

[SomaliSteel]

This has already been discussed by other large publications before. HSM is clearly centralizing power. The world is noticing how he is spending more time on politics than security. There's no bias, it's just the reality of the current situation.

You cant secure anything without centralization. Somalia cannot be secured with federalism. A strong leader like Kagame with an loyal united military is needed to secure the country from every extremist, bandit, and warlord. If you don't think HSM is that man i hear that but someone competent is needed to do this.

African countries cannot be Federalized for real, they must be unitary states with a strong presidency or have fake federalism like Ethiopia. We should adopt a system like Kenya, a unitary state for a ethnically diverse country. Our issue is similar but clan diverse. There is a reason there are few federal states in africa

 

[Neptune]

You cant secure anything without centralization. Somalia cannot be secured with federalism. A strong leader like Kagame with an loyal united military is needed to secure the country from every extremist, bandit, and warlord. If you don't think HSM is that man i hear that but someone competent is needed to do this.

African countries cannot be Federalized for real, they must be unitary states with a strong presidency or have fake federalism like Ethiopia. We should adopt a system like Kenya, a unitary state for a ethnically diverse country. Our issue is similar but clan diverse. There is a reason there are few federal states in africa

Centralization in this regard would do nothing. The failure of the SNA to secure the country stems from many different problems including corruption and political meddling, but not federalism.

 

[Medeea]

You cant secure anything without centralization. Somalia cannot be secured with federalism. A strong leader like Kagame with an loyal united military is needed to secure the country from every extremist, bandit, and warlord. If you don't think HSM is that man i hear that but someone competent is needed to do this.

African countries cannot be Federalized for real, they must be unitary states with a strong presidency or have fake federalism like Ethiopia. We should adopt a system like Kenya, a unitary state for an ethnically diverse country. Our issue is similar but clan diverse. There is a reason there are few federal states in africa

Kagame or Barre style rule isn’t true centralization. It’s just a brutal one-man show.
And with one-man shows,
You’re literally rolling the dice. And knowing our region, we’re more likely to get another Barre, Abiy, Caydiid, Dani than a Lee Kuan Yew or even a Meles
It’s a gamble and not a good one. That’s why a one-man show or extreme centralization ain’t it.

Yea, we need definitely need a unitary system for our survival. but Kenya’s setup feels too Nairobi centered. I prefer a more decentralized model like the UK, but not with the current super states. just modified gobols.

In the UK, Scots can live their whole lives without ever setting foot in England. They even fly from Glasgow to NYC directly, no stop in London. That’s the kind of setup we need. With some tweaks ofc.

 

[Jambo]

Lol it's the same cycle with every change in leadership, they hype up people with false hopes of victory, make limited gains under foreign air support and then end up getting karbaashed by AS. People need to face the fact that unpopular puppet governments won't last, we've already seen this in Afghanistan.

 

[Espaa_]

You cant secure anything without centralization. Somalia cannot be secured with federalism. A strong leader like Kagame with an loyal united military is needed to secure the country from every extremist, bandit, and warlord. If you don't think HSM is that man i hear that but someone competent is needed to do this.

African countries cannot be Federalized for real, they must be unitary states with a strong presidency or have fake federalism like Ethiopia. We should adopt a system like Kenya, a unitary state for a ethnically diverse country. Our issue is similar but clan diverse. There is a reason there are few federal states in africa

I dont know much about politics tbh but I would say why not go for the full run? We might as well get rid of foreign interference and let it be a free for all. Let the natural order of things happen and whatever law falls into place is the most natural one for us.

not saying civil war but it would help all of us hash it out between each other without other countries using different FMS as pawns.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

You cant secure anything without centralization. Somalia cannot be secured with federalism. A strong leader like Kagame with an loyal united military is needed to secure the country from every extremist, bandit, and warlord. If you don't think HSM is that man i hear that but someone competent is needed to do this.

African countries cannot be Federalized for real, they must be unitary states with a strong presidency or have fake federalism like Ethiopia. We should adopt a system like Kenya, a unitary state for an ethnically diverse country. Our issue is similar but clan diverse. There is a reason there are few federal states in africa

they always try to compare somalia to nations who don’t even share a modicum of similarity with Somalia (apart from being in Africa), it’s like I’m in a political sped class