Regional Mistrust
On a regional and international level, Farmajo's stated intent to reshape his country's foreign policy could prove a daunting challenge, not least because his victory stemmed in part from his campaign image as a staunch nationalist opposed to foreign meddling – especially by Ethiopia and Kenya. As head of state, he will need to move with extra caution to navigate regional politics and ease the anxieties of these powerful neighbours who are suspicious of his brand of politics.
Unless he takes some early steps toward fulfilling his pledges of rebuilding security forces and state institutions, tackling corruption and unifying the country, dissatisfaction could trigger a serious public backlash.
Growing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia (over Nile waters, the Grand Renaissance Dam and South Sudan) could potentially spill over into Somalia and complicate matters for Farmajo. The speed with which Cairo has moved to embrace the new Somali president is bound to increase Ethiopia's anxieties at the growing Arab influence in the country.
The resurgent Somali nationalism that Farmajo is said to embody is causing particular concern in Ethiopia, which could become an equal, if not greater, challenge to the new president. Ethiopia and Somalia are historical rivals and Addis Ababa has intervened repeatedly in its eastern neighbour since the central government collapsed in the early 1990s. In 2006, Ethiopia moved swiftly to dislodge the popular Union of Islamic Court (UIC) Islamist government that had managed to restore peace in Somalia during its brief six-month reign. Addis saw the UIC's anti-Ethiopian posturing and Somali nationalist rhetoric in support of a 'greater Somalia' that incorporates Somali inhabited areas in neighbouring countries as a threat and acted accordingly.
If Farmajo adopts a similarly antagonistic posture – as his popular 'nationalist' constituency demands – then Addis will quickly act to undermine the new regime in Mogadishu, regardless of the progress made in Somalia's domestic struggles. He will need to move slowly in relation to Ethiopia and Kenya – which shares many of Ethiopia's concerns about Somali nationalism, given the large Somali population there – and reaching out to emphasise the shared interest between the new president and these countries in stabilising Somalia.
The new president seems to be sensitive to these concerns and has sent emissaries to Nairobi and Addis Ababa with messages of goodwill and reassurances. This is hugely positive and ought to be sustained and supported by the international community.
Still, there are signs that regional tensions may worsen. Pro-Farmajo social media activists posted a picture of an Ethiopian senior official at the election venue captioned 'Ethiopia shattered by the poll outcome'. Such taunts were disseminated widely across the Somali-speaking Horn and diaspora. Farmajo's broad domestic popularity is unlikely to protect him from Somalia's fragile relationships with its neighbours, and an Ethiopia that senses its interests and influence to be in jeopardy will almost certainly be a spoiler for Farmajo's agenda of reform.
https://menafn.com/1097254345/The-Regional-Risks-to-Somalias-Moment-of-Hope
On a regional and international level, Farmajo's stated intent to reshape his country's foreign policy could prove a daunting challenge, not least because his victory stemmed in part from his campaign image as a staunch nationalist opposed to foreign meddling – especially by Ethiopia and Kenya. As head of state, he will need to move with extra caution to navigate regional politics and ease the anxieties of these powerful neighbours who are suspicious of his brand of politics.
Unless he takes some early steps toward fulfilling his pledges of rebuilding security forces and state institutions, tackling corruption and unifying the country, dissatisfaction could trigger a serious public backlash.
Growing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia (over Nile waters, the Grand Renaissance Dam and South Sudan) could potentially spill over into Somalia and complicate matters for Farmajo. The speed with which Cairo has moved to embrace the new Somali president is bound to increase Ethiopia's anxieties at the growing Arab influence in the country.
The resurgent Somali nationalism that Farmajo is said to embody is causing particular concern in Ethiopia, which could become an equal, if not greater, challenge to the new president. Ethiopia and Somalia are historical rivals and Addis Ababa has intervened repeatedly in its eastern neighbour since the central government collapsed in the early 1990s. In 2006, Ethiopia moved swiftly to dislodge the popular Union of Islamic Court (UIC) Islamist government that had managed to restore peace in Somalia during its brief six-month reign. Addis saw the UIC's anti-Ethiopian posturing and Somali nationalist rhetoric in support of a 'greater Somalia' that incorporates Somali inhabited areas in neighbouring countries as a threat and acted accordingly.
If Farmajo adopts a similarly antagonistic posture – as his popular 'nationalist' constituency demands – then Addis will quickly act to undermine the new regime in Mogadishu, regardless of the progress made in Somalia's domestic struggles. He will need to move slowly in relation to Ethiopia and Kenya – which shares many of Ethiopia's concerns about Somali nationalism, given the large Somali population there – and reaching out to emphasise the shared interest between the new president and these countries in stabilising Somalia.
The new president seems to be sensitive to these concerns and has sent emissaries to Nairobi and Addis Ababa with messages of goodwill and reassurances. This is hugely positive and ought to be sustained and supported by the international community.
Still, there are signs that regional tensions may worsen. Pro-Farmajo social media activists posted a picture of an Ethiopian senior official at the election venue captioned 'Ethiopia shattered by the poll outcome'. Such taunts were disseminated widely across the Somali-speaking Horn and diaspora. Farmajo's broad domestic popularity is unlikely to protect him from Somalia's fragile relationships with its neighbours, and an Ethiopia that senses its interests and influence to be in jeopardy will almost certainly be a spoiler for Farmajo's agenda of reform.
https://menafn.com/1097254345/The-Regional-Risks-to-Somalias-Moment-of-Hope
