The Oil deal isn't that bad

[Barkhadle1520]

This has been on my mind for a while.

At first glance 90% recovery cost seems very bad but when you realize that it means they will earn back their investment in less than 5 years it starts to sound better



Assuming the cost per block would be around 2B$

And that the exploration (which is at 75% as of now) would end by the end of this year, the planning would take until 2027 and the development and drilling would take until the first few years of the next decade (approx. 2031)

This means that we would owe TPAO 2B$ x 3 blocks = 6B$

If each block generates at least 550M$/a year, 3 generate 1.5b$ a year and TPAO takes 90% (1.35B$) that would mean it would only take us a record time of 5 years or less for TPAO to earn back their $6 billion at that rate.

But that's not all, if I recall correctly we still get 10% during these few years, which is approx. 150M$ a year for max. 5 years.

150M$ is a huge number for Somalia. Correct me if I'm wrong but the FGS in all its history has never put that much money on the table for any projects. To put it into perspective, 100M$ could build around 5 modern and fully equipped hospitals throughout the country. With a 100M$ they could also build about 475 primary schools fully equipped with textbooks for all students. These are the two sectors holding our HDI back and that seriously need attention.

I'm not very sure about this, but I also think there are laws to share oil revenues between the several federal states. So if the Federal Gov keeps 50M, that still leaves 15M$ for each state (Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland)


Also I don't know if it's a coincidence, but the dates when they start building the new Mogadishu airport and economic zone could match the first barrel drilled ?

Considering everything Turkey has built for Somalia, this isn't a bad deal. I'll admit the part where they say that Somalis can't oversee the operation is a bit sketchy but the Somalis mad at the contract because any disagreement would be disputed at a UN court in Turkey is just dumb, Turkey also had to go to the US when they had a disagreement about the F35s. The fact that they wont hire any Somalis also makes sense, good luck finding a significant Somali workforce trained for this. We also have to consider the fact that we are currently seen as a poor and highly unstable state nobody wants to risk investing in.

With all this into account, the contract would obviously not be fully in our favor.

If this deal goes well it will attract even bigger foreign investments to tap into oil, gas and other natural resources. Pretty sure Shell and two other american companies are watching from the sidelines and waiting for their turn. I saw somewhere that the Americans reserved 7 offshore blocks.

I know some of you will call me biased but I'm looking at this from a neutral perspective, I'm not even very fond of the FGS nor Turkey. To summarize, I see more pros than cons in the recent Turkish oil deal.

Am I the only one to see it like this ? What do you guys think ?

 

[Taintedlove]

 

[iamcremo]

Somalia will only see the full rewards after 2031.

 

[Nur_]

Somalia will only see the full rewards after 2031.

If this optimistic take by the original poster were true, what's 5 more years of ceeb and poverty if you've already been there for 40.

 

[Nur_]

Someone please verify this for me. I read that Somalia cannot give a better deal of oil to another country. If it gives another country a good deal, Turkey's deal must rise to meet it. Is this true or just reddit qashin?

 

[iamcremo]

If this optimistic take by the original poster were true, what's 5 more years of ceeb and poverty if you've already been there for 40.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Someone please verify this for me. I read that Somalia cannot give a better deal of oil to another country. If it gives another country a good deal, Turkey's deal must rise to meet it. Is this true or just reddit qashin?

What you’re referring to sounds like a “most favored nation” (MFN) clause, I don't think Somalia and Turkey have had an agreement like that.

 

[Nur_]

What you’re referring to sounds like a “most favored nation” (MFN) clause, I don't think Somalia and Turkey have had an agreement like that.

Yes I think that is what I read. It might have been misinformation. Thank you.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I think this oil thing is nothing more then a racket by Somalis working with Ghost companies in the West and securing land rights and later flipping it to real oil companies. Noone producing oil when you have no client nations to consume it.

The world won't allow excess oil in the market as it could have negative impact on current oil producing nation prices(one of the reasons Khaleej is exporting sheikhaeconomic fuelled extremism) which came back to bite now thru ikhwaani inspired terrorist globally.

 

[Medeea]

A single deepwater block on average produces 40k barrels per day. thats about $950 million per block per year at current oil prices. They can recoup their initial investment and start turning a profit in about 3 years (more like 2ish), even if oil prices remain low.

FGS is expected to earn around $300 million per year initially(assuming 3 blocks) and jump to $1.7–2 billion annually after 3 years. All without investing a single dollar, taking on debt, or any risk.

If no oil is found, it’s the Turkish company and the Turkish government that will lose billions. Not Somalia.


Sadly, we still have a lot of uneducated people among us. Even many of the Western-educated ones still carry a pastoralist short-term thinking .

 

[DR OSMAN]

A single deepwater block on average produces 40k barrels per day. thats about $950 million per block per year at current oil prices. They can recoup their initial investment and start turning a profit in about 3 years (more like 2ish), even if oil prices remain low.

FGS is expected to earn around $300 million per year initially(assuming 3 blocks) and jump to $1.7–2 billion annually after 3 years. All without investing a single dollar, taking on debt, or any risk.

If no oil is found, it’s the Turkish company and the Turkish government that will lose billions. Not Somalia.


Sadly, we still have a lot of uneducated people among us. Even many of the Western-educated ones still carry a pastoralist short-term thinking .

That's great potential figures your throwing around about oil but who the hell is going to produce this amount and for what objective(client nations served). Theirs huge water tables under Somalia land, it's silly to give numbers linked to its potential revenue as noone is or will extract it all without u first clarifying who will consume it?

Oil is a racket by Somali leaders who want to secure land rights under shady ghost companies and then sell the land later as private person for some other purpose. It's dhul boob bililiqo.

PL knows.moryanimo we refuse this new oil.racket scheme their up too.

 

[Medeea]

That's great potential figures your throwing around about oil but who the hell is going to produce this amount and for what objective(client nations served). Theirs huge water tables under Somalia land, it's silly to give numbers linked to its potential revenue as noone is or will extract it all without u first clarifying who will consume it?

Oil is a racket by Somali leaders who want to secure land rights under shady ghost companies and then sell the land later as private person for some other purpose. It's dhul boob bililiqo.

PL knows.moryanimo we refuse this new oil.racket scheme their up too.

120K barrels per day is nothing. Guyana jumped from 70K in 2020 to 670K today. With modern tech, production can scale fast.
And my estimate assumes output it will stay at 120K per day and prices hold at $65. Both are very realistic.

I agree that Gulf and other oil producers don’t want new supply in the market and may try to sabotage us. But that’s where Turkey comes in. They import 90% of their energy, so for them oil isn’t just profit. It’s national security. A stable, affordable supply will let them act more freely geopolitically speaking.

And this has nothing to do with PL. Not sure why u keep bringing up PL.

 

[TheLand]

Reading comprehension severely lacking or just another troll

 

[Midas]

The deal on the face of it doesn't seem to bad. But it would require turkey to not bend the rules in its direction (which will obviously happen) . Although we only leased them 3 blocks. And its turning out that we actually have much larger oil reserves than anticipated.

You can also sort of tell by how everything's suddenly gone quiet.

 

[DR OSMAN]

120K barrels per day is nothing. Guyana jumped from 70K in 2020 to 670K today. With modern tech, production can scale fast.
And my estimate assumes output it will stay at 120K per day and prices hold at $65. Both are very realistic.

I agree that Gulf and other oil producers don’t want new supply in the market and may try to sabotage us. But that’s where Turkey comes in. They import 90% of their energy, so for them oil isn’t just profit. It’s national security. A stable, affordable supply will let them act more freely geopolitically speaking.

And this has nothing to do with PL. Not sure why u keep bringing up PL.

Somalia needs to build its land and human capital not just simply relying on trade exports to other highly productive human capital countries and then siphoning these potential funds into offshore accounts like Nigeria which won't see anything change in the nation but more so the black market will continue to develop the most.

U do know most the wealth is in black markets not in formalised countries economy? Africans tend to be the richest behind the scene but he ain't your friend or anyone tho except where their moryanimo interest lies, informal sector and black market is where they really focus on.

My DNA auto somal did show a significant portion of Nigerian, Mansa Musa stomping grounds as Timbuktu was their knowledge center that funneled The Caliphate knowledge to Spain which Europeans used to think was some mythical land the arabs were making up but it was concealed.

The Nigerian or that Malian theater of number of countries in the Sahel(get rich at all costs and stay low and stealth as not to disturb it flows thru my genes). Africans always tend to fist bump me as they can prolly sense the moryanimo genes so I find it unusual Somalis have issues with them hence we must not all share the same genetics profile and hence their is no unity.

Moryanimo isn't this gangbanging shit and dime bags that's what's known as kids ninyahow or youth exposing themselves(moryanimo means your undetected at all times and living large) but not living large only but ur obsessed with more and more hunguri. Moryanimo in African sense is when it gets sophiscated they even become your confidante and best friend.

 

[FBIsomalia]

This has been on my mind for a while.

At first glance 90% recovery cost seems very bad but when you realize that it means they will earn back their investment in less than 5 years it starts to sound better



Assuming the cost per block would be around 2B$
View attachment 363356

And that the exploration (which is at 75% as of now) would end by the end of this year, the planning would take until 2027 and the development and drilling would take until the first few years of the next decade (approx. 2031)

This means that we would owe TPAO 2B$ x 3 blocks = 6B$

If each block generates at least 550M$/a year, 3 generate 1.5b$ a year and TPAO takes 90% (1.35B$) that would mean it would only take us a record time of 5 years or less for TPAO to earn back their $6 billion at that rate.

View attachment 363359

But that's not all, if I recall correctly we still get 10% during these few years, which is approx. 150M$ a year for max. 5 years.

150M$ is a huge number for Somalia. Correct me if I'm wrong but the FGS in all its history has never put that much money on the table for any projects. To put it into perspective, 100M$ could build around 5 modern and fully equipped hospitals throughout the country. With a 100M$ they could also build about 475 primary schools fully equipped with textbooks for all students. These are the two sectors holding our HDI back and that seriously need attention.

I'm not very sure about this, but I also think there are laws to share oil revenues between the several federal states. So if the Federal Gov keeps 50M, that still leaves 15M$ for each state (Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland)


Also I don't know if it's a coincidence, but the dates when they start building the new Mogadishu airport and economic zone could match the first barrel drilled ?

Considering everything Turkey has built for Somalia, this isn't a bad deal. I'll admit the part where they say that Somalis can't oversee the operation is a bit sketchy but the Somalis mad at the contract because any disagreement would be disputed at a UN court in Turkey is just dumb, Turkey also had to go to the US when they had a disagreement about the F35s. The fact that they wont hire any Somalis also makes sense, good luck finding a significant Somali workforce trained for this. We also have to consider the fact that we are currently seen as a poor and highly unstable state nobody wants to risk investing in.

With all this into account, the contract would obviously not be fully in our favor.

If this deal goes well it will attract even bigger foreign investments to tap into oil, gas and other natural resources. Pretty sure Shell and two other american companies are watching from the sidelines and waiting for their turn. I saw somewhere that the Americans reserved 7 offshore blocks.

I know some of you will call me biased but I'm looking at this from a neutral perspective, I'm not even very fond of the FGS nor Turkey. To summarize, I see more pros than cons in the recent Turkish oil deal.

Am I the only one to see it like this ? What do you guys think ?

If deal is good why Qoslaya keep it secret?