The effects of climate change on Somalia

[Crow]

Yesterday, over 90 scientists from around the world released a damning report on climate change and governments around the world's inaction. They concluded that there is basically no hope and the Paris agreement commitments aren't even close to enough to make a difference.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also warns that coral reefs around the world will disappear, devastating marine ecosystems.

The following maps are from a 2013 report by the IPCC showing how different parts of the world will be affected.

Here is an example map:

Notice how there are 3 sets of maps in the image below. Each column is a different potential future. The first column is the best case scenario and the last column is the worst case. The middle column is the most likely outcome.

From Annex I: Atlas of Global and
Regional Climate Projections (2013)
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&sour...FjAMegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw25oVfn5yfE83ZVTl0Of5Uv

 

[Crow]

Here is a closer look at Somalia.

From Annex I: Atlas of Global and
Regional Climate Projections (2013)
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&sour...FjAMegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw25oVfn5yfE83ZVTl0Of5Uv



The next section is from chapter 22 of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014).
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf

Here are the changes that have been observed over the last few decades.

Precipitation in eastern Africa shows a high degree of temporal and spatial variability dominated by a variety of physical processes (Rosell and Holmer, 2007; Hession and Moore, 2011).Williams and Funk (2011) and Funk et al. (2008) indicate that over the last 3 decades rainfall has decreased over eastern Africa between March and May/June. The suggested physical link to the decrease in rainfall israpid warming of the Indian Ocean, which causes an increase in convection and precipitation
over the tropical Indian Ocean and thus contributes to increased subsidence over eastern Africa and a decrease in rainfall during March to May/June (Funk et al., 2008;Williams and Funk, 2011). Similarly, Lyon and DeWitt (2012) show a decline in the March-May seasonal rainfall over eastern Africa. Summer (June-September) monsoonal precipitation has declined throughout much of the Great Horn of Africa over the last 60 years (during the 1948–2009 period;Williams et al., 2012) as a result
of the changing sea level pressure (SLP) gradient between Sudan and the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea and the southern tropical Indian Ocean region (Williams et al., 2012).

Here are the projected changes to the end of the century.

An assessment of 12 CMIP3 GCMs over eastern Africa suggests that by the end of the 21st century there will be a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts during October-November- December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM) (WGIAR5 Section 14.8.7; Moise and Hudson, 2008; Shongwe et al., 2011). These results indicate a reversal of historical trend in these months (Funk et al., 2008;Williams and Funk, 2011). Lyon and DeWitt (2012) ascribe this reversal to recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific that offsets the equatorial Pacific SST warming projected by CMIP3 GCMs in future scenarios. However, GCM projections over Ethiopia indicate a wide range of rainfall spatial pattern changes (Conway and Schipper, 2011) and in some regions GCMs do not agree on the direction of precipitation change, for example, in the upper Blue Nile basin in the late 21st century (Elshamy et al., 2009). Regional climate model studies suggest drying over most parts of Uganda, Kenya, and South Sudan in August and September by the end of the 21st century as a result of a weakening Somali jet and Indian monsoon (Patricola and Cook, 2011). Cook and Vizy (2013) indicate truncated boreal spring rains in the mid-21st century over eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and southern Kenya while the boreal fall season is lengthened in the southern Kenya and Tanzania (Nakaegawa et al., 2012). These regionalstudies highlight the importance of resolving both regional scale atmospheric processes and local effects such as land surface on rainfall simulation across the region (WGI AR5 Section 14.8.7).

The following talks about observed and projected changes to extreme rainfall and temperatures. Note that this is in contrast to the last two sections which talk about non-extreme, normal weather.

Extreme precipitation changes over eastern Africa such as droughts and heavy rainfall have been experienced more frequently during the last 30 to 60 years (Funk et al., 2008; Williams and Funk, 2011; Shongwe et al., 2011; Lyon and DeWitt, 2012). A continued warming in the Indian-Pacific warm pool has been shown to contribute to more frequent East African droughts over the past 30 years during the spring and summer seasons (Williams and Funk, 2011). It is unclear whether these changes are due to anthropogenic influences or multi-decadal natural variability (Lyon and DeWitt, 2012; Lyon et al., 2013). Projected increases in heavy precipitation over the region have been reported with high certainty in the SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012), and Vizy and Cook (2012) indicate an increase in the number of extreme wet days by the mid-21st century.

 

[Basra]

Crow, we r muslims. We have imaan. God will take care of his climate. It doesnt belong to us

 

[Hmmmm]

@Basra sometimes human beings need to take action, every dilemma is not going to be sorted by Allah (swt)

 

[Basra]

@Basra sometimes human beings need to take action, every dilemma is not going to be sorted by Allah (swt)

There is alot of things we should do. For example the worlds trash, the plastics, the cans, the bottles, the paper bags, etc etc we r dumbing them in one location ground or worst the sea. I agree we should get smarter and take care of the earth as it is a loan from God, but sometimes humans are too busy looking for the next buck.

 

[Ape]

Crow, we r muslims. We have imaan. God will take care of his climate. It doesnt belong to us

Climate change is happening because of humans. Allah is the greatest dont get me wrong, but we are destroying this planet slowly.

 

[D2HUM8L31NE]

We on some gang shit right here the prophet (saw) said arabia will turn to green looks like Sudan and Niger are coming with us too hope you guys are ready for the hordes of Indians Ethiopians Australians and other African nations even Europe might come in be prepared boys

Also is northerners need to close our border we can't let those savage uneducated southerners in our beautiful land

#make northerners great again

 

[Basra]

Climate change is happening because of humans. Allah is the greatest dont get me wrong, but we are destroying this planet slowly.

I hear you Ape. And i am saying dont sweat, the creator of the climate will fix it.

 

[Ape]

If somalia stabilises then forests should be grown and fauna and flora originally somali should be re introduced. During the war, most of our native animals left to kenya. Also, animals should be protected and not hunted to then be sold to indo yaars.

 

[Basra]

We on some gang shit right here the prophet (saw) said arabia will turn to green looks like Sudan and Niger are coming with us too hope you guys are ready for the hordes of Indians Ethiopians Australians and other African nations even Europe might come in be prepared boys

Also is northerners need to close our border we can't let those savage uneducated southerners in our beautiful land

#make northerners great again

Your comment didnt make any sense at all. Maybe i am not a northerner.

 

[D2HUM8L31NE]

The fact that I need to say this is embarrassing and proving the 68iq meme chill the hell out guys it was clearly a joke bismillah can't you guys understand sarcasm when you see it

 

[Prince Abubu]

Here is a closer look at Somalia.
View attachment 56343 View attachment 56344 View attachment 56345 View attachment 56346
From Annex I: Atlas of Global and
Regional Climate Projections (2013)
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&sour...FjAMegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw25oVfn5yfE83ZVTl0Of5Uv



The next section is from chapter 22 of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014).
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf

Here are the changes that have been observed over the last few decades.


Here are the projected changes to the end of the century.


The following talks about observed and projected changes to extreme rainfall and temperatures. Note that this is in contrast to the last two sections which talk about non-extreme, normal weather.

So global sea levels rising and average temperature increase will actually make Somali rainfall more intense and predictable?

 

[D2HUM8L31NE]

I hear you Ape. And i am saying dont sweat, the creator of the climate will fix it.

“Verily, Allaah will not change the (good) condition of a people as long as they do not change their state (of goodness) themselves (by committing sins and by being ungrateful and disobedient to Allaah)” [al-Ra’d 13:11]?

'Abdullah ibn 'Umar said, "The Prophet, peace be upon him, came to us and said, 'O Muhajirun, (emigrants from Makkah to al-Madinah) you may be afflicted by five things; God forbid that you should live to see them

If people should begin to cheat in weighing out goods, you should realise that this has never happened without drought and famine befalling the people, and their rulers oppressing them.

If people should withhold zakat, you should realise that this has never happened without the rain being stopped from falling; and were it not for the animals' sake, it would never rain again.

If people should break their covenant with Allah and His Messenger, you should realise that his has never happened without Allah sending an enemy against them to take some of their possessions by force.

If the leaders do not govern according to the Book of Allah, you should realise that this has never happened without Allah making them into groups and making them fight one another.' " [Ibn Majah]

this is the reason but I promise not a single user will admit everyone will go past this comment trying to lie to themselves and not accept the blame

 

[Basra]

“Verily, Allaah will not change the (good) condition of a people as long as they do not change their state (of goodness) themselves (by committing sins and by being ungrateful and disobedient to Allaah)” [al-Ra’d 13:11]?

'Abdullah ibn 'Umar said, "The Prophet, peace be upon him, came to us and said, 'O Muhajirun, (emigrants from Makkah to al-Madinah) you may be afflicted by five things; God forbid that you should live to see them

If people should begin to cheat in weighing out goods, you should realise that this has never happened without drought and famine befalling the people, and their rulers oppressing them.

If people should withhold zakat, you should realise that this has never happened without the rain being stopped from falling; and were it not for the animals' sake, it would never rain again.

If people should break their covenant with Allah and His Messenger, you should realise that his has never happened without Allah sending an enemy against them to take some of their possessions by force.

If the leaders do not govern according to the Book of Allah, you should realise that this has never happened without Allah making them into groups and making them fight one another.' " [Ibn Majah]

this is the reason but I promise not a single user will admit everyone will go past this comment trying to lie to themselves and not accept the blame

I admit it. Thank you dear Northerner. I agree 100%.


But the unfortunate thing is, As humans we are very imperfect. Even if our leaders followed religion to a T---Satan will find a way to contaminate it. But at least, from the stat bet, we will be OK, given we r following religion and the practice/Sunnah of our prophet pbuh steps.

 

[D2HUM8L31NE]

I admit it. Thank you dear Northerner. I agree 100%.


But the unfortunate thing is, As humans we are very imperfect. Even if our leaders followed religion to a T---Satan will find a way to contaminate it. But at least, from the stat bet, we will be OK, given we r following religion and the practice/Sunnah of our prophet pbuh steps.

It's tough holding to every law in isla m in this day and age it's hard i just pray that allah keeps the ummah of Muhammed (peace and blessings be upon him) upon the right path and forgives them of their shortcomings

Ps. To op the major changes are predicted for 2080 imm a be dead by then it's so sad just when Somali a is doing well

 

[Crow]

Effect on ocean.

Ocean acidification (OA) is the term used to describe the process whereby increased CO2 in the atmosphere, upon absorption, causes lowering of the pH of seawater (Box CC-OA). Projections indicate that severe impairment of reef accretion by organisms such as corals (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007) and coralline algae (Kuffner et al., 2008) are substantial potential impacts of ocean acidification, and the combined effects of global warming and ocean acidification have been further demonstrated to lower both coral reef productivity (Anthony et al., 2008) and resilience (Anthony et al., 2011). These effects will have consequences for reef biodiversity, ecology, and ecosystem services (Sections 6.3.1-2, 6.3.5, 6.4.1, 30.3.2; Box CC-CR).

Coral vulnerability to heat anomalies is high in the Western Indian Ocean (Section 30.5.6.1.2). Corals in the southwestern Indian Ocean (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Réunion, and Rodrigues) appeared to be more resilient than those in eastern locations (Section 30.5.6.1.2). Social adaptive capacity to cope with such change varies, and societal responses (such as closures to fishing) can have a positive impact on reef recovery, as observed in Tanzania (McClanahan et al., 2009). In Africa, fisheries mainly depend on either coral reefs (on the eastern coast) or coastal upwelling (on the western coast). These two ecosystems will be affected by climate change through ocean acidification, a rise in sea surface temperatures, and changes in upwelling (see Boxes CC-OA, CC-CR, CC-UP).

Effect on water resources.

In eastern Africa, potential climate change impacts on the Nile Basin are of particular concern given the basin’s geopolitical and socioeconomic importance. Reduced flows in the Blue Nile are estimated by late century due to a combination of climate change (higher temperatures and declining precipitation) and upstream water development for irrigation and hydropower (Elshamy et al., 2009; McCartney and Menker Girma, 2012). Beyene et al. (2010) estimated that streamflow in the Nile River will increase in the medium term (2010–2039) but will decline in the latter half of this century (A2 and B1 scenarios) as a result of both declining rainfall and increased evaporative demand, with subsequent diminution of water allocation for irrigated agriculture downstream from the High Aswan Dam. Kingston and Taylor (2010) reached a similar conclusion about an initial increased followed by a decline in surface water discharge in the Upper Nile Basin in Uganda. Seasonal runoff volumes in the Lake Tana Basin are estimated to decrease by the 2080s under the A2 and B2 scenarios (Abdo et al., 2009), while Taye et al. (2011) reported inconclusive findings as to changes in runoff in this basin. The Mara, Nyando, and Tana Rivers in eastern Africa are projected to have increased flow in the second half of this century (Taye et al., 2011; Dessu and Melesse, 2012; Nakaegawa et al., 2012).

Effect on crops.

Climate change is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields of major cereal crops across Africa, with strong regional variability in the degree of yield reduction (see also Section 7.3.2.1) (Liu et al., 2008; Lobell et al., 2008, 2011; Walker and Schulze, 2008; Thornton et al., 2009a; Roudier et al., 2011; Berg et al., 2013) (high confidence). One exception is in eastern Africa where maize production could benefit from warming at high elevation locations (A1FI scenario) (Thornton et al., 2009a), although the majority of current maize production occurs at lower elevations, thereby implying a potential change in the distribution of maize cropping.
[...]
Banana and plantain production could decline in West Africa and lowland areas of East Africa, whereas in highland areas of East Africa it could increase with temperature rise (Ramirez et al., 2011). Much more research is needed to better establish climate change impacts on these two crops.

Effect on livestock.

Livestock production will be indirectly affected by water scarcity through its impact on crop production and subsequently the availability of crop residues for livestock feeding. Thornton et al. (2010) estimated that maize stover availability per head of cattle will decrease in several East African countries by 2050.

Effect on pests and diseases.

Warming in highland regions of eastern Africa could lead to range expansion of crop pests into cold-limited areas (low confidence). For example, in highland Arabica coffee producing areas of eastern Africa, warming trends may result in the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) becoming a serious threat in coffee-growing regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi (Jaramillo et al., 2011). Temperature increases in highland banana-producing areas of eastern Africa enhance the risk of altitudinal range expansion of the highly destructive burrowing nematode, Radopholus similis (Nicholls et al., 2008); however, no detailed studies have assessed this risk.

From chapter 22 of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014).
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf

 

[Crow]

If all of the polar ice melts, the sea level will rise by 80 m and Africa will look like this.

This is a worst case scenario that will not happen for many centuries and climate change will probably be reversed before then.

The UN projects a 1 m sea level rise by 2100. Because of our elevation, it will have little effect on us.

 

[Yaquub]

Yesterday, over 90 scientists from around the world released a damning report on climate change and governments around the world's inaction. They concluded that there is basically no hope and the Paris agreement commitments aren't even close to enough to make a difference.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also warns that coral reefs around the world will disappear, devastating marine ecosystems.

The following maps are from a 2013 report by the IPCC showing how different parts of the world will be affected.

Here is an example map:
View attachment 56335
Notice how there are 3 sets of maps in the image below. Each column is a different potential future. The first column is the best case scenario and the last column is the worst case. The middle column is the most likely outcome.
View attachment 56336 View attachment 56337 View attachment 56338 View attachment 56339 View attachment 56340
From Annex I: Atlas of Global and
Regional Climate Projections (2013)
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&sour...FjAMegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw25oVfn5yfE83ZVTl0Of5Uv

I swear to god! i love genuinely smart ppl on this website that produce high iq threads relevant to the current world issues we face. Mods @Bohol can you implement a HIGH IQ tag or badge for my smart brothers here. Make it like the mark of the beast of sspot except it will be used to identify fellow intellects.

 

[GBTarmy]

amazing thread @Crow this just confirmed that climate change will actually benefit us and a green northern Somalia will come to life.

 

[Shaolin23]

amazing thread @Crow this just confirmed that climate change will actually benefit us and a green northern Somalia will come to life.

View attachment 56360

End of the 21st century though ? Most of us won’t be around