Somalia will never know peace.

[Ultra Opinionated]

There are three scenarios for Somalia's future, none of them good:

1. Current status quo: Constant qabil infighting, AS attacks, North remains de facto independent, FGS remains little more than an NGO for the current president to enrich himself and his tribe with.

2. AS victory: Ethiopia immediately invades, putting us back in 2006, where the attempt to install a joke of a government. Only possible difference is that the west may not back this new government, considering they are already tired of Somalia right now. Even if Ethiopia doesn't invade, I don't think anyone with morals sees AS strolling in the capital as a win for Somalia.

3. FGS victory over AS: Not only will the FGS most likely not remove their ability to wage insurgency, despite territorial loss, this will only happen if the clans stop fighting each other, the gov pays its soldiers, foreigners don't leave, and the west remains content to pour billions into the NGO known as the FGS. But even if we assume all of this occurs, this doesn't solve the main cancer, which is Qabilism. Clans will still infight with each other, which will always mean the gov will not have control over most of the country, especially Puntland and Somaliland.

 

[Aiman12]

2 is the most unrealistic scenario, people keep saying AS is winning when all they are doing is taking some tulos in the middle of nowhere with no strategic value, we saw what a barely funded and equipped macawisley could do to them. if fgs actually gave a damn about sna AS would be finished

​

 

[Zak12]

Its gonna be status quo so as long as FGS is being kept on life support by the west. Luckily funding is drying up so inshallah that cancerous government gets replaced by the closing decade.

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

2 is the most unrealistic scenario, people keep saying AS is winning when all they are doing is taking some tulos in the middle of nowhere with no strategic value, we saw what a barely funded and equipped macawisley could do to them. if fgs actually gave a damn about sna AS would be finished

​

I had to account for all possible scenarios that don't all clans magically reconciling with each other.

Also saying macawisley defeated AS by themselves is like saying SDF defeated IS by themselves. Not only was everything paid by the west, a lot of Ugandans and other foreigners died. I agree SNA has far more potential than it is showing, but to say they could easily destroy AS is absurd.

Plus the macawisley took heavy casulties during those offensives, and now AS has managed to return to areas they haven't been in for a decade. It was a mistake to launch that offensive, they should have waited.

Its gonna be status quo so as long as FGS is being kept on life support by the west. Luckily funding is drying up so inshallah that cancerous government gets replaced by the closing decade.

Replaced by what?

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

I agree SNA has far more potential than it is showing, but to say they could easily destroy AS is absurd.

To add onto this, the FGS cannot defeat AS because the latter is, as much as I hate to say this, more homegrown than the former. The current government was something developed and backed by foreigners, while AS is a mostly home grown movement. This inherent illegitimacy of the FGS is why they cannot defeat AS.

 

[Zak12]

Replaced by what?

Anything as long as it is locally made

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Anything as long as it is locally made

So AS is fine for you?

 

[Zak12]

So AS is fine for you?

Obviously not

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Obviously not

Obviously, that is the only alternative to the FGS right now.

 

[Zak12]

Obviously, that is the only alternative to the FGS right now.

Al-Kabab is hated by most Somalis

 

[Sputnikaa]

I am more shocked you just realised this now

let each man take back what was his land before 1960

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Al-Kabab is hated by most Somalis

Same for the FGS. Popularity doesn't matter when neither supports democracy.

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

I am more shocked you just realised this now

let each man take back what was his land before 1960

I knew this. Just a reminder for those who say "Somalia just needs to fix this one thing, and everything will be great".

 

[Jambo]

Anyone who thinks the puppet US government has any chance of securing long term victory should take a look at Afghanistan. 3 years ago the current "president" claimed he would be victorious in a matter of months and now all the gains he made under american air support are reversed and xamar is encircled.

Deluded government supporters need to stop coping and accept reality

 

[Zak12]

Same for the FGS. Popularity doesn't matter when neither supports democracy.

Hence why neither groups are going to last

 

[Aiman12]

I had to account for all possible scenarios that don't all clans magically reconciling with each other.

Also saying macawisley defeated AS by themselves is like saying SDF defeated IS by themselves. Not only was everything paid by the west, a lot of Ugandans and other foreigners died. I agree SNA has far more potential than it is showing, but to say they could easily destroy AS is absurd.

Plus the macawisley took heavy casulties during those offensives, and now AS has managed to return to areas they haven't been in for a decade. It was a mistake to launch that offensive, they should have waited.

the average macawisley only had an ak, sandals and little to no training and they still managed to almost bring AS to the brink, imagine SNA with the same or more investment? it is not unrealistic to think AS would be gone in a year if FGS with western support heavily invested in SNA instead of relying on militias

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

the average macawisley only had an ak, sandals and little to no training and they still managed to almost bring AS to the brink, imagine SNA with the same or more investment? it is not unrealistic to think AS would be gone in a year if FGS with western support heavily invested in SNA instead of relying on militias

Which would require the gov to be able to subordinate the clans. AS largely suceeds because they don't have to deal with clan agendas conflicting with their goals. FGS continuously lets qabilism run amok.

 

[Espaa_]

Guys im going to save somalia put me - a woman with no ties to the land whatsoever whos 3 generations removed - IN POWER.

Trust and believe im gonna karbash the country so hard everyone will think its yawmul qiyama. Everybody gonna be submissive to me. Queen araweelo 2.0

Im gonna offer everyone in AS to defect and hand themselves into designated police stations where they will be going through extensive therapy and a lifetime conscription if they didnt kill anyone. anyone who has killed will be burnt at the stake effective immediately. If they dont do so in 24 hours every single AS member is going to be blown up into smithereens

No rest for the wicked. Everybody will be licking my boots give it 10 years KFC and Mcdonalds and Costa will beg to open shops in Jilib

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Guys im going to save somalia put me - a woman with no ties to the land whatsoever whos 3 generations removed - IN POWER.

Trust and believe im gonna karbash the country so hard everyone will think its yawmul qiyama. Everybody gonna be submissive to me. Queen araweelo 2.0

Im gonna offer everyone in AS to defect and hand themselves into designated police stations where they will be going through extensive therapy and a lifetime conscription if they didnt kill anyone. anyone who has killed will be burnt at the stake effective immediately. If they dont do so in 24 hours every single AS member is going to be blown up into smithereens

No rest for the wicked. Everybody will be licking my boots give it 10 years KFC and Mcdonalds and Costa will beg to open shops in Jilib

Assad said the same about Idlib...

 

[Espaa_]

Assad said the same about Idlib...

I aint assad he is a MAN best believe somalia WILL be matriarchal under my rule.

We are 50% of the population and do not even have 5 seats in parliament imagine. This is why the country has flopped. They control us and dont even cater to us

Anyway all clan elders will be DEMOTED and will be dashed into a special care home.

All bantu somalis will be paid heavily by me to do agriculture to the point where the ethnics will beg to farm and we slowly move away from nomadism.

all nomads will be documented and put onto a conservation so they stop destroying more prime grasslands. A bit like gypsies but way more respected.

after that the south will be carpet bombed after I relocate ALL civilians and i will drop the biggest fattest bomb you have ever seen on those t3rrorists