Somalia UNFPA Estimates Is Rubbish Fight Back Somalis

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
Somalia UNFPA apparently carried a 'survey' with no 'methodology' provided. We want to know 'each' village area 'sq' not 'household sample' and then you working out what-ever estimations u want without any 'baseline' to estimate against.

somalia-population-area-sq.png


They said this fallacious statement that Somalia is 8 million 'urban/rural' and 3 million Nomadic and 1 million IDP. Total is 12 million. U wud need to assume a GDP per capita of 12 million/7 billion of $583 per person. Which sounds fine on national average scale, but look how they fucked up with the nomadic scale. They said it's only 3 million of that 12 million population yet they account for 40% of GDP. How does 25% of the population account for 40% of the national product? showing a huge purchasing power where 1 nomad is equal 2 urban/rural people combined who wud need to combine their measly $500 per person x 2 for a Nomad.

This wud mean that the nomad has $2.8 billion/3 million ppl which is $900 per capita, yet the urban/rural has $500 per capita. Are Nomads 'twice' as rich urban/rural people, if that was the case u wud see their purchasing power being different to the urban/rural people and they should be able to buy two properties for 1 property of urban/rural at that rate or purchase twice the products/goods of an 'urban/rural'. Do you see nomads owning twice the materials of other Somalis? of course not, because this estimation is something out of someone ass not based on GDP at all.

Cuz u wud need to assume a nomadic family has $900 per person x 6 household has $5400 per year while urban/rural family of 6 has a $3k per 6 household.

This is highly unlikely and they under-estimated the nomadic population by a long shot and it was intentional in my opinion since the 'south/isaaq land' lack nomads.

The true nomadic ratio to population should be in line with the GDP and that's 40% of GDP being tied to 40% of the population which should mean 4.8 million is nomadic in the nation giving them 40% of the total 12 million. While urban/rural is 60%.

Now lets look at hargeisa/mogadishu fictious 1.2 million and 1.6 million. That would mean there is a 2.8 million market that apparently exists there which has to equate to $500 per person national average giving them 1.4 billion 'market.

While the rest of the nation is apparently 4.4 million population market and they happen to share $1.4 billion in products/goods? giving per capita of $300 for them yet miraclously, there is $500 per person in mogadishu/hargeisa? This would need to be 'proved' that a household in mogadishu/hargeisa has more products/goods daily/monthly/yearly in comparison to other urban/rural areas which I strongly doubt. I doubt a hargeisa/mogadishu person has more food/water/electricity/clothes/electronics then any other market place in Somalia, they may have 'larger' population but not a larger purchasing power then other places.

Now let's do the maths probably for $2.8 billion dollars 'divide' that by urban/rural pool of 8 million. That is a GDP per capita of $350 per person a year nation wide in that 8 million rural/urban pool. For a household of 6 u the yearly expense their yearly budget wud be around $2100.

Electricity is $50 a month x 12 = 600. Food is probably = $1200 yearly at $100 a month, water = $600 a year assuming $50 a month. That's $2400-$2500 just for utilities and that's assuming they own their home and not renting either. So they over-estimated the population of hargeisa/hamar by a fair bit as u need at least $400 per person a year to survive in that city with just basic costs and it's far 'less' in the rural areas who achieve the same standard of living with less money showing a 'stronger' purchasing power cuz it's not 'inflated' to the extent of mogadishu-hargeisa. I heard even a 'cup of coffee' is like 5 bucks in some places of Mogadishu, you could get the same coffee 5 times over outside mogadishu meaning more 'possessions n products' for rural areas over urban areas and hence 'richer' population

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The mismatch if u don't see it clearly yet is there is only $2.8 billion consumption in that 60% population of urban/rural, and mogadishu/hargeisa claimed $2.8 million population which is a 35% share of the urban/rural GDP. It's not possible since if the rural/urban gdp is split 8 million population qof walbo waxaa ku 'aadan' $350 and I don't see purchasing power difference in hamar/hargeisa wat I do see however is inflation meaning they get 'less' for their money where-as that $350 in the other cities gets more products/goods and the only reason is 'inflation' is out of control in mogadishu and it's overpriced due to population demand not 'wealth' demand.

The average hargeisan/mogadishu person waxba ma dhaamo wiilka magaaloyinka kale joggo in terms of his yearly expenses so I don't see justification to increase their purchasing power ratio whatsoever. If we looked at pure purchasing power ratio of $350 per person in hargeisa/mogadishu u wud assume $980 million market this wud be good to believe but we know the average cost of living per person cannot be lower then $450 in those cities a year and your pockets are not richer then other urban/rural areas to justify an 'extra' $100 be slipped into your pocket when it's simply not there at all.

So u need to deduct 450/350, there is $100 short-fall in every single person in their population estimate and we know for one person u need $450 to live there where-as $350 is probably enuff for 2 people expenses in the other cities showing either stronger purchasing power or higher population and I swing to higher population as purchasing power isn't different in 80% of the nations ppl only population is different.

So for every 4.5 people in hargeisa/mogadishu assume a 'ghost' has been added kkkkkk since there is $100 dollars missing in those 4.5 people which means 'ghost' total exists. Cuz each person needs $450 yet we know they only have $350 per person, that's percentage of 23% missing in each person pocket to constitute a 'person' in those cities and I doubt there is any justification to see mogadishu/hargeisan has 25% missing in their 'pocket' in comparison to other urban/rural areas who can live just fine on their $350 yet you can't cuz your towns need $450 bare minimum per person. So it's either the Puntite argument that Hargeisa-mogadishu are poorer and in poverty or mogadishu/hargeisa must accept that no-one is poorer per person and that the population estimate was not in line with GDP realities.

This means for 4.5 people there is 1 ghost in their population since each person is 25% short of their living costs of $450 with the national gdp average being $350. Either they accept their poorer by 25% to the rest of the nation or re-adjust population estimates. $100 short-fall since you only have $350 per person yet your living cost is $450 per person that is 25% missing in each person pocket over 4 people = 1 person.

That means u need to deduct 25% from your estimated population of 2.8 million which is 750,000 people and bring it back down to 2.1 million living in hargeisa/mogadishu in-line with GDP per capita of $350 which means your avg person only has 77% of the bare minimum living costs of hargeisa/hamar, hence that has to be reduced by 23% of the 40% urban/rural GDP products as they simply can't even afford it due to lower purchasing power or the more realistic route is to lessen the population by 23% and bring it down to 2.1 million people while products/goods are increased by 23% to ensure the same standard of living for all somalis urban/rural.

Either way that missing 25% in each person pocket needs to come out of either the GDP total or the population estimates as both are unworkable.

Average cost of living in mogadishu/hargeisa is $450 per head per year. GDP per capita is $350 per head nation wide. There is 23% short-fall in mogadishu/hargeisa income and cost of living this should indicate 23% lesser GDP as no business man is going to send 23% more products for market that is $100 short across 2.8 million population rate which is 220 million dollars products/goods are apprently flying around in mogadishu as the income per person ratio is $350 x 2.8 million = 980 million dollars maximum a year products/goods can enter that market. Where is at the real GDP is $1.2 billion for Mog/Hargeisa at population ratio of 2.8 million and per capita of $450 per person yet the national GDP capita is $350, so there is 23% poverty in each person missing $100 dollars a year across 2.8 million people or 23% population estimate out of whack
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
This UNFPA is clearly from wikipedia when it says Gedo is 60,000 SQ KM on it's own 'report' kkkkkk. Surely it doesn't take a genius to go 'map' tool and see it's 30,000 SQ KM in Gedo not 60,000 SQ KM. UNFPA has to be thrown out, it's made fallacious eras such as

3 million produce $2.8 billion dollars a year while 8 million Somalis produce only $4.2 billion dollars. How is it 25% of the population owns 40% of the GDP, maybe their some real 'jews' in those nomads, that's like saying nomads are jews and urbanites/farmers are peasants kkkk.

It also made miscalculated error on hargeisa-mogadishu population arguing it's 2.8 million people which would mean they need 2.8 million x $450 per person and GDP indicator of $1.2 billion dollars, which wud mean the rest of the nation 5.2 million share $1.6 billion giving a $300 average per person outside Mogadishu/Hargeisa when we don't see $150 dollar less in purchasing power nation wide to justify that, I doubt mogadishu/hargeisa person has $150 dollar extra a year then other urban areas, if anything with their inflation rate, u wud assume their poorer and cannot enjoy the same living standards as the rest of the nation.

2.8 million population is over-justified when national gdp per capita is $350, that $350 is $100 less then living costs of single person in mogadishu a year. So we need to deduct 23% from either their GDP and align it to $350 per person x 2.8 million giving a GDP of $980 million and reallocate that to the other urban-rural areas of 5.2 million which wud mean a GDP of 1.8 billion plus 23% of 415 million giving a total 2.2 billion and gdp per capita of $423 which wouldn't make senses that their richer then urban areas.

The only sensible way is to deduct 23% from mogadishu/hargeisa over-all population from 2.8 down to 2.2 million. They added 650,000 most likely silly af-gashins in hargeisa estimations as they fudged the figures not looking at GDP and not seeing the problem their numbers leads where your population claims cannot live in your city below a certain living cost which is $450 while your national GDP capita rate is $350.

U will need to deduct all that 'gdp excess' of $100 difference across your population of 2.8 million which is $280 million of un-needed products which is 23% deduction from 2.8 million to 2.2 million for hargeisa/mogadishu with now an adjusted GDP of $980 million between the two. With Mogadishu 1.5 million and Hargeisa taking 700k. Now that looks better and more realistic. Congratulate your GDP doctor against population ratio vs per capita expenditure calculations.

U shouldn't see more then 2.2 million in hargeisa/mogadishu total with $980 million at a rate consistent with gdp per capita of $450 per person in thoses cities.

Mogadishu is the largest with 1.5 million of that population pool and GDP of $666 million giving $450 per year person which is now realistic cost of living for those cities. Hargeisa is $313 million dollars GDP per year and per capita of $447 per person in Hargeisa. The rest of the GDP is $1.8 billion for 5.8 million with gdp per capita of $350 but their cost of living is 'less' so their not poorer as their still living the same lifestyle just not 'inflated' like hargeisa/mogadishu.
 
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