Somali oil curse myth

[Midas]

I was reflecting on the fact that in the next 5-10 years somalia will likely start getting oil money it will be small at first but will likely grow rapidly.

I used to think that somalia woukd just suffer from an oil curse and the end result would juat be massive corruption like these other countries. But then I realized that somalia's starting point is actually much higher. When nigeria or Angola or even saudi arabia. Started making money from oil they had like 20% literacy and less than 15% urbanization rate. There was no real education system to speak of in these countries. Somalias starting point is much much higher . We have 50% urbanization rate. Multiple large urban centers. A semi functioning education system. Are literacy rate is like 60%. A small but growing pool of skilled professionals both in the diaspora and back home.

These countries had nothing even remotely close to this. We also don't have the large pouplation of nigeria or the desert geography of saudi arabia. Even if all we do is avoid the worst case scenario the situation will be several times better than what happened to nigeria or angola.

 

[peterpeter]

Thats not the problem though most Somalis are extremely disenfranchised and have no say in politics, whats stopping politicians who don't respect the rule of law to cash the money and put it in an offshore bank. Even though we need to sell the oil I'm not a defeatist this is the problem with African politicians.

 

[Midas]

Thats not the problem though most Somalis are extremely disenfranchised and have no say in politics, whats stopping politicians who don't respect the rule of law to cash the money and put it in an offshore bank. Even though we need to sell the oil I'm not a defeatist this is the problem with African politicians.

Corruption is expected i won't even be surprised if we had a couple big examples like your mentioning. But we have systems and institutions in place that these other countries didn't have at all. They were starting from a 0 and were starting from a 4 .

A lot of the big causes of this corruption
1) One large capital city
2) extremely low literacy rate
3) no infrastructure.

We don't suffer from any of this. These guys basically had little to no college educated professionals when the money started rolling in. Plus when you see oil money corruption it's often one guy or one poltical party ruling for decades . Who's taking the money.

I'm not expecting us to get anything near Norway level growth. Just a couple basically investments in education, heath, and infrastructure whhich already doing combined with some partnerships with foerign companies would be transformative. it only takes an 11% growth rate to go from $1000 gdp per capita to $3000 gdp per capita in 10 years. We were already doing like 4-5% now.

 

[Dalac Bilaash]

Corruption is expected i won't even be surprised if we had a couple big examples like your mentioning. But we have systems and institutions in place that these other countries didn't have at all. They were starting from a 0 and were starting from a 4 .

A lot of the big causes of this corruption
1) One large capital city
2) extremely low literacy rate
3) no infrastructure.

We don't suffer from any of this. These guys basically had little to no college educated professionals when the money started rolling in. Plus when you see oil money corruption it's often one guy or one poltical party ruling for decades . Who's taking the money.

I'm not expecting us to get anything near Norway level growth. Just a couple basically investments in education, heath, and infrastructure whhich already doing combined with some partnerships with foerign companies would be transformative. it only takes an 11% growth rate to go from $1000 gdp per capita to $3000 gdp per capita in 10 years. We were already doing like 4-5% now.

Corruption will vanish if you adopt full scale digitalization of all transactions no one can steal anything because it can easily be tracked if we avoid cash we are good

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

Corruption will vanish if you adopt full scale digitalization of all transactions no one can steal anything because it can easily be tracked if we avoid cash we are good

How would it even help, it would only make things easier. Somalia already relies on digital transactions which is fine, but for things like this? Its in the hands of these monopolies, not decentralized and public like bitcoin theyd be taking a cut and no one would know. Trust me

 

[Galguduudguy]

Most important things we can do with the money is free Jubaland and southwest from Al-Kebab and become self reliant for food. Everything else is secondary.

 

[Midas]

It's honestly incredible to see how history repeats itself. Starting from the 70s with the help of the Soviet union it took somalia about a decade to militarize. Now here we are several decades later again remilitatizing. I suspect it's also gonna take us about a decade this time as well.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Now the federal government can know who enters all the country’s ports, inspect ships and also prevented from entering any port without Mogadishu&#39;s permission. and monitor and control all of the Somali maritime. but that&#39;s not enough we need Naval vessels along the Somali coast <a href="https://t.co/9V8RnXDqmg">pic.twitter.com/9V8RnXDqmg</a></p>&mdash; 𐒋𐒁𐒊𐒘𐒇𐒄𐒑𐒛𐒒| (@trafalgar_10) <a href="">December 5, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Garaad.XIV]

I don’t understand why people think Somalia will start producing oil soon, but it’s definitely not going to happen in the next 30 years. This myth has been around for 20 years, and nothing has come of it because Somalia has no proven oil reserves. First, we need to hope that oil is actually discovered, and even then, it won’t be extracted anytime soon.

 

[Zak12]

I don’t understand why people think Somalia will start producing oil soon, but it’s definitely not going to happen in the next 30 years. This myth has been around for 20 years, and nothing has come of it because Somalia has no proven oil reserves. First, we need to hope that oil is actually discovered, and even then, it won’t be extracted anytime soon.

It was discovered in the 80s and Turkey is already in the process of doing 3D seismic testing to see how much there is

 

[Midas]

I don’t understand why people think Somalia will start producing oil soon, but it’s definitely not going to happen in the next 30 years. This myth has been around for 20 years, and nothing has come of it because Somalia has no proven oil reserves. First, we need to hope that oil is actually discovered, and even then, it won’t be extracted anytime soon.

I get being cautious since some somalis have a tendency to exaggerate. But it's equally Insane to say that what's going on is a nothing burger. Since the last time anybody did a survey like that turkid vessel is doing is over 40 years ago. And that was on land. Nobody has ever explored somalis coast . Over the last decade, thousands of somalis have undergone military training. Even hassan sheikh who dismantled thr military reversed course and brought odowa back. These are substantial changes.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Thats not the problem though most Somalis are extremely disenfranchised and have no say in politics, whats stopping politicians who don't respect the rule of law to cash the money and put it in an offshore bank. Even though we need to sell the oil I'm not a defeatist this is the problem with African politicians.

A generational change is definitely needed across the whole continent with diaspora and locals working together using modern politics not these black old men with white colonial fascism brains in power. They behave no different to the worst period of European history and they run their countries following an out dated system even Europe went to war over and destroyed itself to purge itself from fascism. This african dude just carried on following in his footstep.