This is my honest analysis on colonial n modern estimations done by colonial and UNFPA
The problems is what I will first point out on these estimations and the solutions that all Somalis can agree on. Do I have an emotional investment(of course), I am declaring my bias publically but that doesn't dismiss the fact the methods I suggest will even make me a believer irrespective of the outcome.
I won't deny the outcome due to my emotional bias. I am not that type of person, as I love 'truth' even if it's against me and my emotions, as long as the methods make sense and their is no 'holes' that can be found.
First I will partially dismiss Wikipedia, even tho I like it, I never accept it as the total 'story or fact but glean over it for the 'theme or one side of the story' especially if the topic contains an emotional 'aspect' which these topics usually do such as 'history, population, philosophy, politics, cultures, religion' as we know these topics have an emotional 'factor' involved and the goalposts(conclusions) are subjective depending on the narrator, so take these considerations on-board
So now we got past that. The reason I dismiss Wikipedia on Somali clan population is outright stupidity such as the HAGS for example claiming their the largest somali tribe and their source is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawiye Alasow, Omar (2010). Violations of the Rules Applicable in Non-International Armed Conflicts and Their Possible Causes. p. 32.
I am dismissing it not because the author is a Somali or 'HAG' or has a HAG name, the truth can be with anyone. I am dismissing it because the wikipedia claim wrote a 'claim' that hawiye is the largest clan in all somali tribes and then sourced it to a page of a 'book' written by a HAG author not demonstrating the 'claim' has any conclusive method or conclusive data, that all people can accept. U can't just source a claim in a book that is a 'claim' and use that as a 'source' for your claim in wikipedia. This is outright deceptive or ignorance being promoted
He also claimed that HAG stretch from 'central, south, into Ethiopia, and Kenya' which is very in-correct, Hawiye do lives in 'pockets' of each area doesn't mean Hawiye 'stretches' and controls all those lands, that's a correct statement which any1 can verify on the ground. That alone dismisses him also, an unsubstianted claim that is 'defying' the actual 'territories' as we know it and what everyone can verify on the ground. This is a dangerous trend 'online moryanism in academics'.
This sort of online moryanism can be taken by non hag academics such as myself as conclusive evidence that 'HAG' demonstrated a false narrative on population nor did anyone in their clan 'stop' them from humiliating the clan in the world stage. So it's safe to say 'honest educated people do not exist in HAG and that can be used as further evidence by non-hawiye clans that this clan cannot be trusted in it's civil war narrative, politics or anything in local/foreign matters cause they demonstrated they 'lied' on somali tribe population nor did anyone in their clan retract or stop them. Some Somalis like me assume HAG narrative on anything is similar to their narrative on population always incorrect, false, deceptive. So why do we vote these people into power? that's something for Somalis n international community to ponder the evidence I pointed out.
Now that is over, now we have people referring to colonial book estimations, the problem with this is.
1. Colonial making claims in a book about population without any method provided is simply a claim. Just becuz some neutral foreigner said something doesn't make it true unless a method or data reference is provided. Now we have HAGS and Isaaqs using this on the spot, it's no different to the HAG book claiming their the largest tribe but the only difference is the person saying it is not Somali doesn't make it a fact. Their is world wide established process to reach facts and conclusions and online moryanism only hurts your clans if you resort to it(it can be used against u to say your also moryan in politics)
I must concede when I read the Isaaq wikipedia they don't make these claims and they do indeed have academics who have 'controlled' their clan so people like me a 'darod' cannot use that to discredit them to Somalis and the world and thus question their politics isn't based on the same premise as we can with Hawiye.
2.The other problem is using the colonials estimation claim, lots of people moved south during that time, the clan demographic was vastly different.
Modern estimations used now is UNFPA, again they provided no estimation reference for pastoral families such as (the volume size and number of water infrastructure, all the locations so it can be verified) nor did they provide a repeatable and consistent 'method' used to reach these estimation conclusions. So just because the UN endorsed this doesn't make it true, infact it can be used to discredit the UN integrity for using estimation models not following agreed academic methods(repeatable n consistent) across it's claim.
The final nail in the coffin Im not sure I should refer to it but Isaaqs used to use a 'CIA estimation' when we know CIA use 'local intel' sources which can be not always factual unless 'demonstrated method' is provided to them, why I dismiss the CIA, it's the same agency who got non factual intel regarding Iraq WMD. If they were incorrect on that, what makes you think their estimation model isn't? Im not saying it's 100% provable it's not factual, they didn't provide any 'method' to refer too.
Now what's the solution, is it more claims made by people, no. We need to sit down as Somalis and agree to repeatable and consistent model that is applied to all our lands. The below method is far more accurate in my opinion and I would accept their outcome and Im sure Somalis would also. Make sure all Somalis sign they endorse the model before it's started is the key, so if they refuse it, that can be used to discredit them for dishonesty and put to question if their clan are spoilers.
The Model I suggest is repeatable and consistent and can be applied to all clans equally to reach a confident outcome within a margin of error.
Rural population technique
1. Water infrastructure(dams, wells). Measuring volume and livestock population it can support. Agree on a livestock to population ratio average
2. Measurement of pasture(daaqsin, goof). The size of the land is critical to measure how much livestock it can support(laangaab, landheer) is real.
Urban population Model
1. Area SQ measurement of towns, villages, cities. Zoning out villages, towns, neighborhoods to clans. Assume average house and land dimension(20 x 20) and measure every 'area sq km' against number of homes.
2. Electricity infrastructure generation capacity against the population it can support. Each house will be measured and average will be agreed on house usage against the capacity.
3. Water infrastructure and the population it can support
Before urban population model is tested, we need to test our model for a margin of error that is with an acceptable range. Nairobi would be good place to measure their electricity/water infrastructure using our model and compare it against their census and see what the margin of error is and repeat the process untill it's within an aacceptable range.
All Puntites and Somalis, this will finally settle our population or be the most reliable model that all can work with and pass to international community without discrediting them for accepting faulty claims.
I will conclude somaliyay 'caqliga aan isku adeegsano, not xabada'. Lets use our brains to settle issues not bullets. PPL will find that far more irrefutable then 'emotion' ama 'cadifaada'. Yes it's an emotional topic, I agree. We all want to be landheere I agree, but we can't dismiss 'reason n intellect for it'. I heard a wise saying 'In your mind u can feel like the richest person' but the fact n evidence is your 'bank balance'. That's the difference between emotion n reason. I am not saying we dismiss our emotions, it's there and will forever be there and we need to declare it immediately to ourselves and others so we at least look credible, but lets not let our emotions be over-run by not accepting reason/intellect, that will only discredit your clans and can be used against you as spoilers.
So let judgement day come for Somalis when their 'numbers' are told to them, do not resort to emotion or bullets or somalis will write down that incident as apart of your clan history to show Somalis and the world the clear patterns emerging for your clan like is seen with 'HG' and their conflict n green line with every clan in the nation, that's a 'trend or pattern' somalis n the world will see and has hurt their chances of coming to power in the nation, so now they back 'abgaals' who r pro hg which will hurt abgaals also in the long-run. I must say not all abgaals but 'wacaysle' has taken this route not 'harti abgaal' leaders who don't want to be buried with HG in political credibility.
The problems is what I will first point out on these estimations and the solutions that all Somalis can agree on. Do I have an emotional investment(of course), I am declaring my bias publically but that doesn't dismiss the fact the methods I suggest will even make me a believer irrespective of the outcome.
I won't deny the outcome due to my emotional bias. I am not that type of person, as I love 'truth' even if it's against me and my emotions, as long as the methods make sense and their is no 'holes' that can be found.
First I will partially dismiss Wikipedia, even tho I like it, I never accept it as the total 'story or fact but glean over it for the 'theme or one side of the story' especially if the topic contains an emotional 'aspect' which these topics usually do such as 'history, population, philosophy, politics, cultures, religion' as we know these topics have an emotional 'factor' involved and the goalposts(conclusions) are subjective depending on the narrator, so take these considerations on-board
So now we got past that. The reason I dismiss Wikipedia on Somali clan population is outright stupidity such as the HAGS for example claiming their the largest somali tribe and their source is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawiye Alasow, Omar (2010). Violations of the Rules Applicable in Non-International Armed Conflicts and Their Possible Causes. p. 32.
I am dismissing it not because the author is a Somali or 'HAG' or has a HAG name, the truth can be with anyone. I am dismissing it because the wikipedia claim wrote a 'claim' that hawiye is the largest clan in all somali tribes and then sourced it to a page of a 'book' written by a HAG author not demonstrating the 'claim' has any conclusive method or conclusive data, that all people can accept. U can't just source a claim in a book that is a 'claim' and use that as a 'source' for your claim in wikipedia. This is outright deceptive or ignorance being promoted
He also claimed that HAG stretch from 'central, south, into Ethiopia, and Kenya' which is very in-correct, Hawiye do lives in 'pockets' of each area doesn't mean Hawiye 'stretches' and controls all those lands, that's a correct statement which any1 can verify on the ground. That alone dismisses him also, an unsubstianted claim that is 'defying' the actual 'territories' as we know it and what everyone can verify on the ground. This is a dangerous trend 'online moryanism in academics'.
This sort of online moryanism can be taken by non hag academics such as myself as conclusive evidence that 'HAG' demonstrated a false narrative on population nor did anyone in their clan 'stop' them from humiliating the clan in the world stage. So it's safe to say 'honest educated people do not exist in HAG and that can be used as further evidence by non-hawiye clans that this clan cannot be trusted in it's civil war narrative, politics or anything in local/foreign matters cause they demonstrated they 'lied' on somali tribe population nor did anyone in their clan retract or stop them. Some Somalis like me assume HAG narrative on anything is similar to their narrative on population always incorrect, false, deceptive. So why do we vote these people into power? that's something for Somalis n international community to ponder the evidence I pointed out.
Now that is over, now we have people referring to colonial book estimations, the problem with this is.
1. Colonial making claims in a book about population without any method provided is simply a claim. Just becuz some neutral foreigner said something doesn't make it true unless a method or data reference is provided. Now we have HAGS and Isaaqs using this on the spot, it's no different to the HAG book claiming their the largest tribe but the only difference is the person saying it is not Somali doesn't make it a fact. Their is world wide established process to reach facts and conclusions and online moryanism only hurts your clans if you resort to it(it can be used against u to say your also moryan in politics)
I must concede when I read the Isaaq wikipedia they don't make these claims and they do indeed have academics who have 'controlled' their clan so people like me a 'darod' cannot use that to discredit them to Somalis and the world and thus question their politics isn't based on the same premise as we can with Hawiye.
2.The other problem is using the colonials estimation claim, lots of people moved south during that time, the clan demographic was vastly different.
Modern estimations used now is UNFPA, again they provided no estimation reference for pastoral families such as (the volume size and number of water infrastructure, all the locations so it can be verified) nor did they provide a repeatable and consistent 'method' used to reach these estimation conclusions. So just because the UN endorsed this doesn't make it true, infact it can be used to discredit the UN integrity for using estimation models not following agreed academic methods(repeatable n consistent) across it's claim.
The final nail in the coffin Im not sure I should refer to it but Isaaqs used to use a 'CIA estimation' when we know CIA use 'local intel' sources which can be not always factual unless 'demonstrated method' is provided to them, why I dismiss the CIA, it's the same agency who got non factual intel regarding Iraq WMD. If they were incorrect on that, what makes you think their estimation model isn't? Im not saying it's 100% provable it's not factual, they didn't provide any 'method' to refer too.
Now what's the solution, is it more claims made by people, no. We need to sit down as Somalis and agree to repeatable and consistent model that is applied to all our lands. The below method is far more accurate in my opinion and I would accept their outcome and Im sure Somalis would also. Make sure all Somalis sign they endorse the model before it's started is the key, so if they refuse it, that can be used to discredit them for dishonesty and put to question if their clan are spoilers.
The Model I suggest is repeatable and consistent and can be applied to all clans equally to reach a confident outcome within a margin of error.
Rural population technique
1. Water infrastructure(dams, wells). Measuring volume and livestock population it can support. Agree on a livestock to population ratio average
2. Measurement of pasture(daaqsin, goof). The size of the land is critical to measure how much livestock it can support(laangaab, landheer) is real.
Urban population Model
1. Area SQ measurement of towns, villages, cities. Zoning out villages, towns, neighborhoods to clans. Assume average house and land dimension(20 x 20) and measure every 'area sq km' against number of homes.
2. Electricity infrastructure generation capacity against the population it can support. Each house will be measured and average will be agreed on house usage against the capacity.
3. Water infrastructure and the population it can support
Before urban population model is tested, we need to test our model for a margin of error that is with an acceptable range. Nairobi would be good place to measure their electricity/water infrastructure using our model and compare it against their census and see what the margin of error is and repeat the process untill it's within an aacceptable range.
All Puntites and Somalis, this will finally settle our population or be the most reliable model that all can work with and pass to international community without discrediting them for accepting faulty claims.
I will conclude somaliyay 'caqliga aan isku adeegsano, not xabada'. Lets use our brains to settle issues not bullets. PPL will find that far more irrefutable then 'emotion' ama 'cadifaada'. Yes it's an emotional topic, I agree. We all want to be landheere I agree, but we can't dismiss 'reason n intellect for it'. I heard a wise saying 'In your mind u can feel like the richest person' but the fact n evidence is your 'bank balance'. That's the difference between emotion n reason. I am not saying we dismiss our emotions, it's there and will forever be there and we need to declare it immediately to ourselves and others so we at least look credible, but lets not let our emotions be over-run by not accepting reason/intellect, that will only discredit your clans and can be used against you as spoilers.
So let judgement day come for Somalis when their 'numbers' are told to them, do not resort to emotion or bullets or somalis will write down that incident as apart of your clan history to show Somalis and the world the clear patterns emerging for your clan like is seen with 'HG' and their conflict n green line with every clan in the nation, that's a 'trend or pattern' somalis n the world will see and has hurt their chances of coming to power in the nation, so now they back 'abgaals' who r pro hg which will hurt abgaals also in the long-run. I must say not all abgaals but 'wacaysle' has taken this route not 'harti abgaal' leaders who don't want to be buried with HG in political credibility.
