Public Polling : Somaliland's 2022 Elections

[ZodiaK]

https://apd-ipp.com/apd-somaliland/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Public-Perception-Survey.pdf

Somaliland has made commendable achievements in upholding democratic processes, especially elections. Since the unilateral dissolution of the 1960 union between Somaliland and Somalia, in 1991, Somaliland has held three presidential elections, two parliamentary elections, two local council elections, and two political party elections (APD, 2016; 2021). However, these elections experienced challenges such as an extension of terms and unprocedural delays (APD, 2014). The upcoming presidential elections and the registration of political parties are already facing similar challenges.


This study used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Quantitative data was gathered through a multiple-choice questionnaire with 43 questions designed to capture the 3,300 respondents’ personal information, voting experiences, political alignments, and general opinion on the president, parliaments, political parties, and associations. This method enabled the researchers to understand the citizens’ level of political information and attitudes on political issues. A total of 3,300 people were interviewed for this survey. 1,980 (60%) of them were male and 1,320 (40%) were female. 72.6% of the respondents were over the age of 25 years and therefore are eligible to vote. The respondents were almost equally distributed among the main regions. 19% of respondents were from Hargeisa, 17% from Berbera, 17% from Las-anod, 16% from Erigavo, 15% from Burao, and 16% from Borama.

Sampling

on-probability sampling and non-random (convenience) sampling were chosen for this study. The first
step in the sampling process was to establish a cooperative agreement with Telesom, the largest
telecommunication network in Somaliland. This was meant to obtain telephone numbers from each of
the six regional capitals: Hargeisa, Borama, Berbera, Burao, Erigavo, and Las-anod. Each region was
assigned a unique set of initial numbers (regional identification initial numbers). These numbers were
utilized to achieve a sampling that is sufficiently representative. As shown in Table 1 below, the sample
was distributed proportionally to each region and sample size was calculated using UNFPA’s Somaliland
population estimate. The systematic sampling error was +/-3.5% based on 95% confidence level.

 

[ZodiaK]

 

[Bernie Madoff]

Damn MBC going for re election ? Seems like it’s going to be tight race with cirro with slight ahead. But lots of time so many things can change from now till than.

 

[InaShaqalle]

Damn MBC going for re election ? Seems like it’s going to be tight race with cirro with slight ahead. But lots of time so many things can change from now till than.

49.9% of poll participants are satisfied or highly satisfied with Bihi government, 32% say they'll vote for Bihi and yet 16.9% say they'll vote for clan reasons. Something doesn't add up

 

[Dharbaaxo Jin]

49.9% of poll participants are satisfied or highly satisfied with Bihi government, 32% say they'll vote for Bihi and yet 16.9% say they'll vote for clan reasons. Something doesn't add up

Welcome to the caqli and logical reasoning of the typical Somali, it very rarely adds up.

Most promising sign is that only 16.9% say they'll vote for clan reasons. Granted, this is what people said to a pollster and we don't know what their actual motivations will be. However, it is very clear that more and more people are looking at it as a case of what have you done for me or are you going to do for me and mine in deciding who they are backing.