President HSM to visit Galcad, joining the frontline to announce the beginning of phase 2.

[bidenkulaha]

Maalmo xasaasi aa soo socdo.

 

[bidenkulaha]

HSM will be visiting the big base built by America there. Will be able to use it to conduct airstrikes easily in Galgaduud from now and also defend where the other regions Hiiraan and Shabellaha Dhexe connect with Galgaduud from there. He’s reported to also go visit Xarardheere and Ceeldheer. The two other major cities liberated and currently where the frontline’s are.

Also US congressman visited Xamar today, the American relationship has never been stronger. Looks like America is finally stepping up security partnership beyond just Danab. Bipartisan engagement with two of the congressman being Republicans and the other a Democrat

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Neither Kenya nor Ethiopia are willing to take the casualties necessary for a major push against Alshabab, especially in KG and JL. Anyone who thinks otherwise is lying to themselves.

Kenya and Ethiopia are willing to provide aircover and recon but they have demonstrated over the past decade that they have no stomach for major clearance operations. SNA will be expected to take almost all casualties, and SNA is not prepared for that. The ratio of SNA to Alshabab remains far too low to win a COIN war. SNA needs to be at least 50,000 strong to simultaneously clear, hold and govern the territory today held by Alshaab. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

 

[Gaandheri]

Neither Kenya nor Ethiopia are willing to take the casualties necessary for a major push against Alshabab, especially in KG and JL. Anyone who thinks otherwise is lying to themselves.

Kenya and Ethiopia are willing to provide aircover and recon but they have demonstrated over the past decade that they have no stomach for major clearance operations. SNA will be expected to take almost all casualties, and SNA is not prepared for that. The ratio of SNA to Alshabab remains far too low to win a COIN war. SNA needs to be at least 50,000 strong to simultaneously clear, hold and govern the territory today held by Alshaab. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

And these two states have swamps, lakes, ponds, with one being more forested than the other, along with middle juba being a jungle forested region these two states terrain is not like gobolada dhexe where it’s open field. Fighting shabaab in JL and KGS without constant shelling and air strikes is a suicide mission.

 

[GemState]

I took this very crudely, but if you take 17–40 as fighting age;

Somalia has 2.4m male population Fit-for-Service.

Southern Somalia has a bit more than 1/2 the overall population so 1.4m population Fit-for-Service would be in the South who would make up pretty much the whole SNA at this point.

50k would be basically be 3-4% of all fighting age in the South. Difficult to see that many mobilized and stay cohesive. Somalia is too big, young, poor & relatively lacking in fighting numbers to be able to do any counterinsurgency. It''s starting to make sense how 8k fanatics can basically hijack the South and go unchallenged in The Jubba Valley for 15 years.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Neither Kenya nor Ethiopia are willing to take the casualties necessary for a major push against Alshabab, especially in KG and JL. Anyone who thinks otherwise is lying to themselves.

Kenya and Ethiopia are willing to provide aircover and recon but they have demonstrated over the past decade that they have no stomach for major clearance operations. SNA will be expected to take almost all casualties, and SNA is not prepared for that. The ratio of SNA to Alshabab remains far too low to win a COIN war. SNA needs to be at least 50,000 strong to simultaneously clear, hold and govern the territory today held by Alshaab. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

SNA is focused on Central Somalia. They can clear Shabaab from Hirshabelle and Galmudug. Can use the macawiisley experience there with Gaaljecel in East Hiiraan and Murusade/Duduble in Ceelbuur.

KG and JL can fight in the South with Ethiopian backing. Abiy is willing to take the causalities, he’s never cared for that sort of stuff. Ethiopia needs to be paid for the operation tho.