Opinion: what is going on in Afghanistan could be Somalia's future when Amisom leaves.

[Som]

The talibans were never completely defeated by the Americans. Before the US announced that they were leaving the country the terrorist controlled at least 20 % of Afghanistan and had a presence in 50% of the territory. Now that the Americans left the talibans are conquering major cities and will probably reach Kabul in the next few months.
Somalia could be in a similar situation when Amisom leaves. The terrorist will try to recapture the whole country and take us back to 2009-2010 when they controlled the whole South. The SNA is weaker than the Afghan army, the afghans have more training from the US, more modern weapons and yet they are being defeated despite being trained by the strongest army in the world for the las 20 years. Somalia is at high risk of going down the same path, the government has to prepare for when Amisom leaves, we need more support from our alleged Turkish friends cause the so called SNA is far from being a legit army that can protect the country from Al shaydan. The SNA has zero tanks, zero airplanes, zero drones,zero navy. Basically we have only foot soldiers armed with AKs and a few armored vehicle. That's not an army, it's a militia.

 

[Dhere]

A decade ago I would agree, but now most of the people have turned against AS. The Talibans are not as incompetent as AS. They haven't spent the last 10 years committing mass attacks on innocent muslim civilians, AS have.
AS is weakened now.

 

[Som]

A decade ago I would agree, but now most of the people have turned against AS. The Talibans are not as incompetent as AS. They haven't spent the last 10 years committing mass attacks on innocent muslim civilians, AS have.
AS is weakened now.

Not true. The talibans are just like AS. They attacked schools, government offices , hotels etc in Afghanistan just like AS did. They may be just more organized from a military point of view but they are brutal criminals like AS and they also mainly target muslims

 

[Macalin dheerow]

The talibans were never completely defeated by the Americans. Before the US announced that they were leaving the country the terrorist controlled at least 20 % of Afghanistan and had a presence in 50% of the territory. Now that the Americans left the talibans are conquering major cities and will probably reach Kabul in the next few months.
Somalia could be in a similar situation when Amisom leaves. The terrorist will try to recapture the whole country and take us back to 2009-2010 when they controlled the whole South. The SNA is weaker than the Afghan army, the afghans have more training from the US, more modern weapons and yet they are being defeated despite being trained by the strongest army in the world for the las 20 years. Somalia is at high risk of going down the same path, the government has to prepare for when Amisom leaves, we need more support from our alleged Turkish friends cause the so called SNA is far from being a legit army that can protect the country from Al shaydan. The SNA has zero tanks, zero airplanes, zero drones,zero navy. Basically we have only foot soldiers armed with AKs and a few armored vehicle. That's not an army, it's a militia.

We have to take that risk. Amisom staying in the country just fuels Al-shabaab. Shabaab has also changed. Their military strenght is overestimated and it has fallen significantly the last few years. The national army should and must be able to handle it. Both are ragtag militias and I believe one has the upperhand.





Taliban can’t be compared to shabaab. Taliban has been fighting for two decades against strong opponents. They are battle harderned and have a high morale. Constrast to Al-shabaab who nowadays behaves more like a criminal organisation. I remember this year in a Al-shabaab controlled area which was captured they were growing cannabis for sale. They are also hitmen for hire.


Al-shabaab can’t takeover much of the south anymore. Call it wishful thinking but they simply do not have the capability for it.

 

[Som]

We have to take that risk. Amisom staying in the country just fuels Al-shabaab. Shabaab has also changed. Their military strenght is overestimated and it has fallen significantly the last few years. The national army should and must be able to handle it. Both are ragtag militias and I believe one has the upperhand.





Taliban can’t be compared to shabaab. Taliban has been fighting for two decades against strong opponents. They are battle harderned and have a high morale. Constrast to Al-shabaab who nowadays behaves more like a criminal organisation. I remember this year in a Al-shabaab controlled area which was captured they were growing cannabis for sale. They are also hitmen for hire.


Al-shabaab can’t takeover much of the south anymore. Call it wishful thinking but they simply do not have the capability for it.

I partially agree.
Talibans are stronger than AS and Afghan army is stronger than SNA.
SNA should be able to handle AS on it's own but the real problem is that it's not organized enough, the somali army is still qabil based and doesn't have a patriotic feeling. Back in the old days the SNA was a creed, all soldiers felt loyal to the Army before their own qabil.We don't have this anymore, my fear is that SNA will disband and run away as soon as things start to become difficult just like the Iraqi army did a few years ago when IS started attacking then. You should also consider that because of clan divisions many SNA recruits and even commanders may refuse to fight against the AS miltiamen who are from their same qabil.

 

[Apollo]

@Som

Sadly Afghanistan reminds me of Somalia in the middle of Asia. Lots of similarities. Most similar country to Somalia in Asia in many ways.

 

[fais]

This will unfortunately be the fate of Somalia and the politicians, who are suppose to make sure this would not happen, will just leave the country since they have that opportunity.

 

[Rocktheboat]

Comparing Al shaydan to the Taliban is disrespectful to the Taliban. The Taliban has an estimated 85,000 fighters while Al shaydan has no more than 7,000. They have no real power in Somalia anymore, that's why they've resorted to blowing up innocent muslims

 

[Dhere]

Not true. The talibans are just like AS. They attacked schools, government offices , hotels etc in Afghanistan just like AS did. They may be just more organized from a military point of view but they are brutal criminals like AS and they also mainly target muslims

Talibans are competent when it comes to politics and they're fighting a clearly defined external war. AS kill civilians who share the same religion, sect, and ethnicity as them for no reason.
Not the same. The civilians that the Taliban kill are mostly Shia Hazaras who aren't very well liked.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

The talibans were never completely defeated by the Americans. Before the US announced that they were leaving the country the terrorist controlled at least 20 % of Afghanistan and had a presence in 50% of the territory. Now that the Americans left the talibans are conquering major cities and will probably reach Kabul in the next few months.
Somalia could be in a similar situation when Amisom leaves. The terrorist will try to recapture the whole country and take us back to 2009-2010 when they controlled the whole South. The SNA is weaker than the Afghan army, the afghans have more training from the US, more modern weapons and yet they are being defeated despite being trained by the strongest army in the world for the las 20 years. Somalia is at high risk of going down the same path, the government has to prepare for when Amisom leaves, we need more support from our alleged Turkish friends cause the so called SNA is far from being a legit army that can protect the country from Al shaydan. The SNA has zero tanks, zero airplanes, zero drones,zero navy. Basically we have only foot soldiers armed with AKs and a few armored vehicle. That's not an army, it's a militia.

Comparing Al shaydan to the Taliban is disrespectful to the Taliban. The Taliban has an estimated 85,000 fighters while Al shaydan has no more than 7,000. They have no real power in Somalia anymore, that's why they've resorted to blowing up innocent muslims

Comparing the Afghan army to the Somali army is much more disrespectful. Afghan army is 100k and has modern weaponry for a 3rd world country.

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Sadly this thread is 100% true. All the moriyaan will defect instead of dying for qabiil. We seen this story a lot. Hopefully the 5,000 soldiers from Eritrea come clutch.

 

[fais]

Even the americans are surprised over how it went down after they left, their assessment is, before new year, Taliban will control Kabul.

If Al-shabab has 10% the strength of Taliban, the undisciplined SNA will be nothing for them.

 

[Gantaal97]

Taliban is a home grown movement that has a support base while AS is internationalist jihadist linked to AL Qaeda so there's no way international community would accept AMISOM to withdraw from Somalia and allow AS to grow

 

[Shaafici Mujaahid]

Taliban is a home grown movement that has a support base while AS is internationalist jihadist linked to AL Qaeda so there's no way international community would accept AMISOM to withdraw from Somalia and allow AS to grow

That still doesn't prove we can defeat them militarily. With Amisom and the Somali army Al Shabab control much larger territory and have an uncontested region in lower Juba unlike the somali government. It's obvious we can't defeat them with ground an air support.

 

[Jiron]

Not a chance

 

[Abdalla]

The taliban has the support of the Pashtun. The western interference was to uplift the laangaab Tajiks and Uzbekis at the expense of the laandheer Pashtun.

AS was getting their ass whooped by the Sufis. AS formula only works in areas with multiple opposing clans. They’ll pit one clan over the other. However, they have zero chance in homogeneous areas

 

[Jaale]

The Taliban is nothing like kebab. The situation, the geography and people is not the same. Making superficial comparisons and drawing grand conclusions is dangerous.

Shabab has no chance of taking Somalia like the Taliban in Afghanistan. Take Somalia for what it is.

 

[reer]

This will unfortunately be the fate of Somalia and the politicians, who are suppose to make sure this would not happen, will just leave the country since they have that opportunity.

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[Som]

@Som

Sadly Afghanistan reminds me of Somalia in the middle of Asia. Lots of similarities. Most similar country to Somalia in Asia in many ways.

Yes, the main difference is that we are relatively homogeneous while they are almost an artificial country with several different ethnicities.

 

[reer]

Yes, the main difference is that we are relatively homogeneous while they are almost an artificial country with several different ethnicities.

afghanistan is not an artificial country like lebanon or kenya. it was formed out of what was left from the durrani empire.