New Federal Region(s) in Ethiopia

[Gaandheri]

Abiy Ahmed is a smart man he’s sidelined Amhara and Tigrayans, gotten rid of regional forces and now he’s playing his cards right to destroy ethnic federalism. Damn nigga wasn’t lying when he said his mom told him he would become the 7th king of Ethiopia.

Also he’s buddies with Afwerki who both of them are working on a corridor from assab, massawa to Addis Ababa. Ethiopia about to join BRICS. Get ready for Ethiopia to look like this after Abiy’s plans come to fruition.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Abiy Ahmed is a smart man he’s sidelined Amhara and Tigrayans, gotten rid of regional forces and now he’s playing his cards right to destroy ethnic federalism. Damn nigga wasn’t lying when he said his mom told him he would become the 7th king of Ethiopia.

Also he’s buddies with Afwerki who both of them are working on a corridor from assab, massawa to Addis Ababa. Ethiopia about to join BRICS
View attachment 281990

Calling his outmaneuvering for 'sidelined Amhara and Tigrayans' is an understatement. He knew that ENDF would not suffice, nor with the help of EDF either against TPLF/TDF in the war. He subsequently dragged the Amharas/FANO in, who foolishly deceived themselves and Abiy playing along with false promises of western Tigray being annexed to the Amhara region. Once the war ended by subjugating Tigrayans, he then turned Amharas who did his dirty laundries. Now they'll have to bow to him once their fake antics of a 'resistance' ends.

Abiy has always compared himself to former Ethiopian Imperial rulers. There's a massive billboard in Addis with his face plastered with Menelik and other Ethiopian monarchs. After all, he view himself as a messiah.

Abiy and Isias being buddies is a tad exaggeration given their current relations. The govt normalized ties with TPLF, which disappointed Isaias, combined with how he was ordered to leave Tigray (yet to be achieved). Things are tense between them.

Also, Ethiopia won’t go back to the pre-90s regions anytime soon. Too complicated with a guaranteed backfire.

 

[Gaandheri]

Calling his outmaneuvering for 'sidelined Amhara and Tigrayans' is an understatement. He knew that ENDF would not suffice, nor with the help of EDF either against TPLF/TDF in the war. He subsequently dragged the Amharas/FANO in, who foolishly deceived themselves and Abiy playing along with false promises of western Tigray being annexed to the Amhara region. Once the war ended by subjugating Tigrayans, he then turned Amharas who did his dirty laundries. Now they'll have to bow to him once their fake antics of a 'resistance' ends.

Abiy has always compared himself to former Ethiopian Imperial rulers. There's a massive billboard in Addis with his face plastered with Menelik and other Ethiopian monarchs. After all, he view himself as a messiah.

Abiy and Isias being buddies is a tad exaggeration given their current relations. The govt normalized ties with TPLF, which disappointed Isaias, combined with how he was ordered to leave Tigray (yet to be achieved). Things are tense between them.

Also, Ethiopia won’t go back to the pre-90s regions anytime soon. Too complicated with a guaranteed backfire.

Also Abiy is now starting to intervene in internal politics of Somalia and he’s also having issues with Egypt about the dam and them about to maybe have a base in somalia. So what will the new map of Ethiopia look like?

 

[GaradShabeel]

Also Abiy is now starting to intervene in internal politics of Somalia and he’s also having issues with Egypt about the dam and them about to maybe have a base in somalia. So what will the new map of Ethiopia look like?

Yeah, Ethiopia’s influence inference in Somalia has no end in sight. Even with the removal of AS.

The dam issue is a bit exaggerated. It’s alread in use today. A formal agreement is only aspect remaining. Reaching maximum energy output is partly prevented from the ongoing constructions, finishes by 2024/5. By then they hope that they’ll put their differences to and end and reach full capacity. Sudan seem to be neutral/indifferent, and leaning towards accepting as it is.

Given what’s transpired the last 30 years, with ethnic conflicts; reversing to the old mixed regions is a big no if he wants to keep the country stable. Imagine putting Amharas-Tigrayans in one shared region, or Amharas-Oromos. It only spells disaster.

Also, most of the major
ethnic groups are against splitting the regions like Tigrayans, Amharas, Oromos etc. Since they aren’t as divided as we are, it will be hard to achieve a peaceful and smoth split, without heavy resistance.

The compromise will be that regions will be broken into smaller (still ethnic) regions, which has a higher probability of acceptance. Everyone will still remain in a region with their own people. The only difference is the size of the states. Many of these people are regionalist in some form, so they’ll accept it when proposed in a favorable/convincing way for the locals.

Through this move, Abiy will eliminate any challenge to his rule in Addis. The ethnic aspect will become be a secondary issue. In the future, once the country stabilizes and order is established and gradual centralization of power, then it may be dismantled. They’ll probably create new regions from scratch than reinstate the old one. However, as of now, Abiy’s immediate threats are solely getting rid of big/powerful states.

 

[Gaandheri]

Yeah, Ethiopia’s influence inference in Somalia has no end in sight. Even with the removal of AS.

The dam issue is a bit exaggerated. It’s alread in use today. A formal agreement is only aspect remaining. Reaching maximum energy output from the dam has part to do with the fact the construction is not fully finished until 2024/5. By then they hope that they’ll put their differences to and end with Egypt and reach full capacity. Sudan seem to be neutral, and leaning towards accepting as it is.

Given what’s transpired the last 30 years, with ethnic conflicts and what not. Reversing to the old mixed regions is a big no if he want to keep the country stable. Imagine putting Amharas-Tigrayans in one shared region, or Amharas-Oromos, Somali-Afars etc. It only spells disaster.

Also, most of the major regions/ethnic groups are against split like Tigray, Amhara, Oromia etc. Since they aren’t as divided as we are, it will be hard to achieve a peaceful and smoth split, without heavy resistance.

The compromise will be that regions will be broken into smaller (still ethnic) regions, which has a higher probability of acceptance. Everyone will still remain in a region with their own people. Amharas with only Amharas. Oromos with only Oromos etc. The only difference is the size of the states. Many of these people are regionalist, so they’ll accept it when proposed in a favorable/convincing way.

Through this move, he may eliminate any challenge to Addis in the times to come. The ethnic aspect will then be a secondary issue. In the future, once things stabilize and order are established in the country, then it may be dismantled. Probably create new regions from scratch rather than the pre-90s ones. In any case, by then, he’ll have total power which will gradually increase over time and able to execute that agenda. As of now, Abiy’s immediate threats are solely getting rid of big and powerful states.

Does Abiy want to rule Ethiopia for a long time like Zenawi and tplf or he’s got a replacement Lined up to take over? What’s his approach or plans for Somalis?

Will Ethiopia take part in phase 2 operations of cleansing shabaab? What’s Ethiopia’s plan if Egypt gets a base in marca, Barawe, Cadale, kismayo, or barawe?

 

[GaradShabeel]

Does Abiy want to rule Ethiopia for a long time like Zenawi and tplf or he’s got a replacement Lined up to take over? What’s his approach or plans for Somalis?

Yup, he seem to be walking into the same footsteps (mistake) as Meles. Promoting himself as a strongman to rule the country for as long as he can by himself, and without a backup plan (that we know of). If he were to die or removed from power, the country would descend into chaos all over again, just like the clockwork. Funnily, the VP of Prosperity Party is a Somali, Adan Farrah. But he’s essentially powerless and will most likely not ascend into power after Abiy. Very few even knows about him.

As far as Abiy’s approach, he believes in one Ethiopia and want everyone to subscribe to itoobiyanimo. He’s appointed a few Somalis to high positions in Addis, to make Somalis feel part of the country. In terms of ‘freedom’ in DDS things have improve a bit from Meles/Iley, though restrictions still exists. Other than that, much needed political changes have not been made since TPLF’s time. The kursi in Jigjiga is appointed and dismissed directly from Addis, like before. Democratizing would improve a lot in terms of confidence of Somalis towards the gov’t, but I doubt it will happen.

Will Ethiopia take part in phase 2 operations of cleansing shabaab? What’s Ethiopia’s plan if Egypt gets a base in marca, Barawe, Cadale, kismayo, or barawe?

Tbh, I haven’t followed much in plans against AS. But based off what I’ve seen and heard, they will partake with troops on the ground once the operations starts in JL/KGS.

I’m of the personal opinion that Egypt will not establish any bases in Somalia, as long as Ethiopia not only have physical presence but general influence in the politics of Somalia now/post-AS.

You think that (in their eyes) after everything Ethiopians have ‘done’ and will ‘do’ in Somalia, that they’ll allow Egypt to establish themselves right in front of them?!? kkk In fact, they’ll gain more leverage depending on how much their military support will yield results in terms of pushback of AS. Even once AS is removed, if the likelihood of their re-emergence is high and/or threats to Ethiopia exist, they may even extend their stay.

There’s a reason why Kenya are more targeted by AS than Ethiopia today. Ethiopia made sure to have presence inside Somalia early on (including before AS) to create a buffer zone. Kenya failed and now share border with AS. But again, it depends on the outcome first.

 

[Gaandheri]

Yup, he seem to be walking into the same footsteps (mistake) as Meles. Promoting himself as a strongman to rule the country for as long as he can by himself, and without a backup plan (that we know of). If he were to die or removed from power, the country would descend into chaos all over again, just like the clockwork. Funnily, the VP of Prosperity Party is a Somali, Adan Farrah. But he’s essentially powerless and will most likely not ascend into power after Abiy. Very few even knows about him.

As far as Abiy’s approach, he believes in one Ethiopia and want everyone to subscribe to itoobiyanimo. He’s appointed a few Somalis to high positions in Addis, to make Somalis feel part of the country. In terms of ‘freedom’ in DDS things have improve a bit from Meles/Iley, though restrictions still exists. Other than that, much needed political changes have not been made since TPLF’s time. The kursi in Jigjiga is appointed and dismissed directly from Addis, like before. Democratizing would improve a lot in terms of confidence of Somalis towards the gov’t, but I doubt it will happen.




Tbh, I haven’t followed much in plans against AS. But based off what I’ve seen and heard, they will partake with troops on the ground once the operations starts in JL/KGS.

I’m of the personal opinion that Egypt will not establish any bases in Somalia, as long as Ethiopia not only have physical presence but general influence in the politics of Somalia now/post-AS.

You think that (in their eyes) after everything Ethiopians have ‘done’ and will ‘do’ in Somalia, that they’ll allow Egypt to establish themselves right in front of them?!? kkk In fact, they’ll gain more leverage depending on how much their military support will yield results in terms of pushback of AS. Even once AS is removed, if the likelihood of their re-emergence is high and/or threats to Ethiopia exist, they may even extend their stay.

There’s a reason why Kenya are more targeted by AS than Ethiopia today. Ethiopia made sure to have presence inside Somalia early on (including before AS) to create a buffer zone. Kenya failed and now share border with AS. But again, it depends on the outcome first.

Yeah I heard that too that the cisse guy is powerless and is basically a secretary, some Ethiopians have said ahmed shide might take over after Abiy. What are some positions Somalis hold in Ethiopia and the clans they belong to apart from finance minister who is dir gurre.

Egypt will maybe have a base because they’ll bribe HSM Somalia’s army is under the UAE today do to a security pact signed the UAE are also training 20k troops and the UAE, Egypt are buddies.

The reason for Kenya bordering AS is due to them not willing to fight and the guy they brought to kismayo madobe he’s clan is not Majority of jubaland and he doesn’t want to go past 3 cities. He also fears and knows that the native clans will overthrow him, it’s why he refused Eritrea trained troops to be deployed there and stopped macawisley from being formed there, in Somalia the weapons the clans have is more than the FMS/FGS have. It’s why the VP of jubaland was calacaling on VOA about its soon for the withdraw of ATMIS troops they both know they can’t stay in kismayo after KDF leave.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Yeah I heard that too that the cisse guy is powerless and is basically a secretary, some Ethiopians have said ahmed shide might take over after Abiy. What are some positions Somalis hold in Ethiopia and the clans they belong to apart from finance minister who is dir gurre.

Egypt will maybe have a base because they’ll bribe HSM Somalia’s army is under the UAE today do to a security pact signed the UAE are also training 20k troops and the UAE, Egypt are buddies.

The reason for Kenya bordering AS is due to them not willing to fight and the guy they brought to kismayo madobe he’s clan is not Majority of jubaland and he doesn’t want to go past 3 cities. He also fears and knows that the native clans will overthrow him, it’s why he refused Eritrea trained troops to be deployed there and stopped macawisley from being formed there, in Somalia the weapons the clans have is more than the FMS/FGS have. It’s why the VP of jubaland was calacaling on VOA about its soon for the withdraw of ATMIS troops they both know they can’t stay in kismayo after KDF leave.

I don't past anything behind Egypt. They've recently managed to forge closer ties with Sudan, including military co-operations. But the country have now descended into chaos, and won't be able to be used as a leverage by Egypt against Ethiopia.

I'm aware of the existing relations between Somalia and Egypt, but I think attempting to let Egypt set up bases in Somalia in the near future is out of the window. At least, if HSM think rationally about the stability of the country. Imagine having both Egyptian and Ethiopian bases in (south-central) Somalia at the same time, when they have souring relations? If/once it happens, then Egypt and Ethiopia would've to solve their squabble and/or decrease Ethiopia's influence beforehand.

Regarding JL, clan-wise, as long as Madoobe have Absame and MX on his side, it would suffice in fighting with AS west of the river (Daraawish, SNA and/or allies, Kenya, Ethiopia, US, Turkey etc). However, east of the river, the entire Middle Jubba in particular, it looks practically impossible now. If Madoobe is smart, he'll arm the locals, but keep them under his wing with Daraawish so he can control them after they've made land gains. Otherwise, without the participations of locals, I've a hard time seeing JL succeeding.

There've been nominations of Somalis to higher positions in Ethiopia recently, Aside from Adan Farrah, Cisse, VP of PP and Ahmed Shide, Gurre, finance minister; there're Saharla Abdullahi, Gadabuursi - Minister of state for health, Abdirahman Eid, Habar Awal - CEO of Ethiopian Investment holding, Zahar Omer Ali, Jidwaaq - VP of federal supreme court. Yusuf Ganay, Geri K.?, VP of national youth council. Filsan Abdi, Ogaden, was minister of women/youth/children, but resigned due to the Tigray war.

 

[Gaandheri]

I don't past anything behind Egypt. They've recently managed to forge closer ties with Sudan, including military co-operations. But the country have now descended into chaos, and won't be able to be used as a leverage by Egypt against Ethiopia.

I'm aware of the existing relations between Somalia and Egypt, but I think attempting to let Egypt set up bases in Somalia in the near future is out of the window. At least, if HSM think rationally about the stability of the country. Imagine having both Egyptian and Ethiopian bases in (south-central) Somalia at the same time, when they have souring relations? If/once it happens, then Egypt and Ethiopia would've to solve their squabble and/or decrease Ethiopia's influence beforehand.

Regarding JL, clan-wise, as long as Madoobe have Absame and MX on his side, it would suffice in fighting with AS west of the river (Daraawish, SNA and/or allies, Kenya, Ethiopia, US, Turkey etc). However, east of the river, the entire Middle Jubba in particular, it looks practically impossible now. If Madoobe is smart, he'll arm the locals, but keep them under his wing with Daraawish so he can control them after they've made land gains. Otherwise, without the participations of locals, I've a hard time seeing JL succeeding.

There've been nominations of Somalis to higher positions in Ethiopia recently, Aside from Adan Farrah, Cisse, VP of PP and Ahmed Shide, Gurre, finance minister; there're Saharla Abdullahi, Gadabuursi - Minister of state for health, Abdirahman Eid, Habar Awal - CEO of Ethiopian Investment holding, Zahar Omer Ali, Jidwaaq - VP of federal supreme court. Yusuf Ganay, Geri K.?, VP of national youth council. Filsan Abdi, Ogaden, was minister of women/youth/children, but resigned due to the Tigray war.

Not bad for Somalis in Ethiopia but only 2 ministers is crazy.

Liberating west or east of the river isn’t hard you just need to attack from the 4 regions that middle juba borders along with Aerial and artillery bombardment. Madobe doesn’t want to librate anything it doesn’t take a genius to know this 13 years and only 2 districts. It’s why his whole city state administration was on voa calacaling about atmis leaving too soon. According to people who worked with him madobe said if he frees middle juba the native clans will take him out. Also tplf used madobe to get sanctions on Eritrea after they captured him in 2009 through a un guy called Matt Bryden. MX won’t work with madobe they want to lead JL.

 

[Step a side]

Not bad for Somalis in Ethiopia but only 2 ministers is crazy.

Liberating west or east of the river isn’t hard you just need to attack from the 4 regions that middle juba borders along with Aerial and artillery bombardment. Madobe doesn’t want to librate anything it doesn’t take a genius to know this 13 years and only 2 districts. It’s why his whole city state administration was on voa calacaling about atmis leaving too soon. According to people who worked with him madobe said if he frees middle juba the native clans will take him out. Also tplf used madobe to get sanctions on Eritrea after they captured him in 2009 through a un guy called Matt Bryden. MX won’t work with madobe they want to lead JL.

Which clan is the most numerous you believe in lower Jubba?

 

[Gaandheri]

Which clan is the most numerous you believe in lower Jubba?

GJ

 

[Step a side]

GJ

Yea I thought this too. Just wanted confirmation.

 

[Removed]

I will ask now the elders from the Karanle group chat.

And yes you are right you should let your people know before it comes to them as a surprise. This division is going to happen 200%!

My people are scattered all over so I don’t think this division will matter. I mean it’s not like the ones from imey will join the ones from the awash . Or the ones from Bale joining the ones from Babili . Don’t forget beesha is also in Sidame

Karanle majority districts are already apart of Oromia theres no part of Somali region for them to split from

K5 split into 3 Insha'Allah

I’d say Awbare and Harawo can leave with Sitti but you staying under us feels better. I’ll be the abusive husband for as long as it suits me

 

[GaradShabeel]

Not bad for Somalis in Ethiopia but only 2 ministers is crazy.

Yeah, I agree. It's not just ministers, but other executive positions, political and non-political alike that Somalis don't get their fair share. The ethnic make-up of top positions at Ethio telecom was recently revealed and it was not surprising to say the least. It caused controversy in Ethiopian social media.

Liberating west or east of the river isn’t hard you just need to attack from the 4 regions that middle juba borders along with Aerial and artillery bombardment. Madobe doesn’t want to librate anything it doesn’t take a genius to know this 13 years and only 2 districts. It’s why his whole city state administration was on voa calacaling about atmis leaving too soon. According to people who worked with him madobe said if he frees middle juba the native clans will take him out. Also tplf used madobe to get sanctions on Eritrea after they captured him in 2009 through a un guy called Matt Bryden. MX won’t work with madobe they want to lead JL.

What's GJ's position in all of this? And what clans are you allied with? You mostly hear about either OG or MX with regards to JL. Would be interesting to know.

 

[Gaandheri]

Yeah, I agree. It's not just ministers, but other executive positions, political and non-political alike that Somalis don't get their fair share. The ethnic make-up of top positions at Ethio telecom was recently revealed and it was not surprising to say the least. It caused controversy in Ethiopian social media.




What's GJ's position in all of this? And what clans are you allied with? You mostly hear about either OG or MX with regards to JL. Would be interesting to know.

Where allied with sheekhaal and any other samaale or any clan that can get rid of madobe well support whatever clan will give us the best deal madobe hates hawiye though a former minister of JL said madobe believes hawiye aren’t natives.

 

[Step a side]

Karanle majority districts are already apart of Oromia theres no part of Somali region for them to split from

I’d say Awbare and Harawo can leave with Sitti but you staying under us feels better. I’ll be the abusive husband for as long as it suits me
View attachment 282067

Your clearly clueless here . You don’t get it . It’s not just Somali regions of Ethiopia that will split. All regions of Ethiopia will split. Every man for himself.

Also apart from Hararghe the largest Karanle settlements are in Benaadir., Lower shabelle, Imey, Qarsadula, Jarati, Nageyle, Bale, Maeso, among others.

 

[Dima&Damo]

So no more ittobiya ha buururto

 

[GaradShabeel]

Where allied with sheekhaal and any other samaale or any clan that can get rid of madobe well support whatever clan will give us the best deal madobe hates hawiye though a former minister of JL said madobe believes hawiye aren’t natives.

Would be interesting to see what clans will ally with whom, in a future 1p1v & multiparty elections in JL. As far as the clan presence aspect, a future census will reveal that

 

[GaradShabeel]

So no more ittobiya ha buururto

Itoobiya-jaceyl iyo itoobiyanimo bey u badaleen

 

[Step a side]

Where allied with sheekhaal and any other samaale or any clan that can get rid of madobe well support whatever clan will give us the best deal madobe hates hawiye though a former minister of JL said madobe believes hawiye aren’t natives.

GJ are found from Jubaland to Awash MashaAllah. Listen from 3:25 onwards