Mandera county has the highest TFR in Kenya

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

This is according to the 2022 knbs survey Mandera has a TFR of 8 which is higher then even somalia https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-06-mandera-has-highest-fertility-rate-nairobi-is-the-least/

Now the ironic thing even though Mandera has the highest TFR in Kenya the population actually decreased during the 2019 census from the 2009 numbers here’s the northern Kenyan leaders disputing the 2019 census results I noticed other issues in the 2019 Kenyan census which will be posted here

 

[Abaq]

The Kikuyu rigged the last census. Whole districts had their population reduced compared to the one before. I would increase the pop of NEP by at least a third if not half

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

The Kikuyu rigged the last census. Whole districts had their population reduced compared to the one before. I would increase the pop of NEP by at least a third if not half

What do they gain from cooking the numbers ? I noticed the pushed garissas fertility rate down during this survey to 4.4 can you believe it

 

[El Nino]

Its actually good that somali numbers are downplayed, the more silent the rise is, the better

 

[Abaq]

What do they gain from cooking the numbers ? I noticed the pushed garissas fertility rate down during this survey to 4.4 can you believe it

Gov funding in Kenya is based on population. The higher the pop the more funding that area gets. Also, big numbers means more political power generally.

I wouldn't believe any census data from the entire Northern Kenya. The kikuyus deliberately reduce the numbers to maintain their hegemony. Gsa is just as rural as Mandera and Wajir and ladies there have just as many kids. It's a lie

 

[World]

Its actually good that somali numbers are downplayed, the more silent the rise is, the better

no matter what, somalis won’t become a plurality or majority, but one of many ethnicities. so it’s important to get our rights.

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Its actually good that somali numbers are downplayed, the more silent the rise is, the better

Yep I agree after the 2009 census Kenyans were freaking out now they resorted to inaccurate stats the good thing is younger age cohorts in Kenya are gradually becoming more somali

 

[Abaq]

Its actually good that somali numbers are downplayed, the more silent the rise is, the better

Aden Barre made a good point, he said you can hide the number of Somalis on paper, but you can't hide the Somalis on the streets of every major Kenyan city. Go all over the country, you will find Somalis everywhere in ever increasing numbers.

For example, 50% of all the land in the new Lamu city has been bought by Somalis, Kikuyus are the second biggest land holders there.

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Gov funding in Kenya is based on population. The higher the pop the more funding that area gets. Also, big numbers means more political power generally.

I wouldn't believe any census data from the entire Northern Kenya. The kikuyus deliberately reduce the numbers to maintain their hegemony. Gsa is just as rural as Mandera and Wajir and ladies there have just as many kids. It's a lie

I agree they wanna keep NFD poor and underrepresented i it just doesn’t make any sense that Garissa has a substantially lower TFR then wajir and mandera that’s how you know these stats are inaccurate

 

[Abaq]

I agree they wanna keep NFD poor and underrepresented i it just doesn’t make any sense that Garissa has a substantially lower TFR then wajir and mandera that’s how you know these stats are inaccurate

NFD actually gets good representation with the new county system. The budget also isn't bad. Garissa county alone gets around $73 million a year. But it deserves more as the pop is higher than what they say

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

How much can we expect manderas population to increase by in the 10 years

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

NFD actually gets good representation with the new county system. The budget also isn't bad. Garissa county alone gets around $73 million a year. But it deserves more as the pop is higher than what they say

How are reer garissa dealing with the current drought situation ?

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

no matter what, somalis won’t become a plurality or majority, but one of many ethnicities. so it’s important to get our rights.

I am almost certain that Somalis will become the plurality (largest tribe) in Kenya within the next 40 years.

The Somali population in Kenya is experiencing a boom unlike anything I have seen. According to the 2019 census the number of Kenyans ages 0-14 was 9.208 million. The number of Kenyans ages 0-14 in North Eastern was 1.388 million. This means that 15% of all Kenyans ages 0-14 are Somali. Somalis are now around 6% of the population of Kenya, at 2.78 million.

For comparison, consider that Coast Province with a population of 4.329 million, almost 2 million more than North Eastern, only has 1.719 million people ages 0-14.
Or that Central Province with a population of 5.482 million, 3 million more than North Eastern, has only 1.718 million people ages 0-14. Or that Nairobi Province with a population of 4.397 million, 2 million more than North Eastern, has only 1.336 million people ages 0-14, which is fewer than North Eastern.

Currently the Kikuyu, at only 17% of the population, are the largest group in Kenya. Somalis are already at 15% of these recent birth cohorts and seem to be gaining as population in Eastern, Central and Coast provinces undergo what seems to be a fairly swift demographic transition. Somalis could easily become the largest ethnic group in Kenya over the next 25 years. Somalis will be more important in Kenyan politics than in Ethiopian politics.

Kenya: Division (Provinces and Counties) - Population Statistics, Charts and Map

Kenya: Division (Provinces and Counties) with population statistics, charts and maps.

www.citypopulation.de

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

I am almost certain that Somalis will become the plurality (largest tribe) in Kenya within the next 40 years.

Mashallah those numbers are great it’s good to know that Kenya is undergoing one of the fastest demographic transitions in Africa already some counties are at replacement level
This means good for us as our percentage continues to grow

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Mandera politician billow Kerrow pointing out flaws in 2009 census even only 70k Somalis were counted outside of northeastern in 2009 https://m.facebook.com/story.php?st...CAWN3Fj68rrGUKLdPYbXAsV5zl&id=192790657562194

 

[JaredAbdullahiKushner2000]

What do they gain from cooking the numbers ? I noticed the pushed garissas fertility rate down during this survey to 4.4 can you believe it

Somalis in Kenya arw minimum 5 million in Kenya and we will definitely be the largest ethnicity in Kenya

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Somalis in Kenya arw minimum 5 million in Kenya and we will definitely be the largest ethnicity in Kenya

No I don’t think the number is that high but I do think they are around 4 million if you include refugees and migrants and they will continue to grow

 

[JaredAbdullahiKushner2000]

No I don’t think the number is that high but I do think they are around 4 million if you include refugees and migrants and they will continue to grow

Best thing we can do is to invest in more hospitals, to lower the rate of infant mortality. We need also to become food secure, we have enough fertile land to produce triple the food that all of Somaliweyn needs. We also need to negotiate with Ethiopia not to dam both rivers, damming the rivers should be treated as an act of hostility. We need to make that clear

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

What’s you guys estimations on the true Somali population of Kenya because the United Nations estimated 500k Somali refugees/migrants in Kenya add that to the nfd numbers and you have around 3.5-4 million Somalis in Kenya

 

[GemState]

What’s you guys estimations on the true Somali population of Kenya because the United Nations estimated 500k Somali refugees/migrants in Kenya add that to the nfd numbers and you have around 3.5-4 million Somalis in Kenya

4 million seems right.

Kenya's TFR is quite low for it's level of development, The TFR for 2019 was 3.4 births which marks a drop of about 1.4 births from 4.8 births in 2009. For 2022 its probably around 3, so by this decade Kenya will very likely go below replacement which is good news for Somalis but bad for Kenya as a whole.

Indonesia, Vietnam & Philipines will go below replacement at a per capita income of $4k. France & Spain went below replacement at $5k & $6k respectively. Kenya will hit below replacement at below $3k, quite grim, especially when you factor Kenya's lack of ability for exponential growth.

Tanzania seems to be East Africa's future