Idilinaa
VIP
People on this forum have a tendency to eat all the right wing nonsense and slander and dump them here. But watch how he does what i tend to do which is dig into the sources behind how they arrived at these numbers and academic reporting around these things.
Apparently no one even bothered to even click on the source and the pdf links to them that these news articles created headlines out of and find out directly where they got these crazy numbers from and how they added them together.
Just to break this down, for context and comparison.
Now how did they get to these numbers. Well it turns out it's from the CMS (Center For Migration Control) who on their blog post, includes the freedom of information act from the police.
Here is the scummy part, when you download the FOI file, there is huge sections that have been deleted
They dug around online and found the original and there it is the large section
It includes a very specific note that says that number of custody records do not equal the number of individuals. Basically 1 person could have been arrested multiple times and some people would even have been arrested and not been found guilty.
If you have 1 guy that commits 10 crimes for instance , this report would log each of them as separate incidents but done by 1 person. The police makes this very clear but what the CMS did was delete this section that specified this and count every single incident as separate individuals/people committing different offenses.
This is not even the scummiest part. They don’t use real census population data of any of these groups in London in the report, they use a fabricated number of 12.000 for each immigrant population
They just made up “12,000” as the baseline number for immigrant groups because they admitted they didn’t have the data.
So lets say we use the number CMS gives but put it against the actual population number of Afghans for example which stands on 50k according to public census data.
10k = 16.5/50K X 10.000 = 3.3 rate which is very similar to the British rate of 2.20
So you don't even get that crazy rate of 20 times higher or whatever they reported on which is BS. It's complete pseudo science junk they farted out. But it get's shared everywhere and you constantly hear it. They rarely gets fact check on it.
And it’s not new. I noticed the same with Norwegian stats (that @The alchemist helped translate). Right wing outlets spun them into clickbait headlines about Somalis being the “worst offenders.” But when you dig, it’s the same manipulation.
He also makes another key point, that is comparing a youth heavy migrant population to an elderly native population is dishonest. Most crimes are committed by young men in general , so of course the rate will look a bit skewed if you compare it like that.
Another thing he shows is how some crime areas are due to unequal urban economic factors not immigrants or cultural ethnic make up.
He creates the analogy to show this by using Blackpool which is 94% white British with high crime rate of 65.33 and compares it to Rabbat in Morocco which has a very low crime rate of 29.73. If we followed the same faulty logic they use against immigrants we can argue that white pool has high crime because it is White British culture or race.
It’s obviously ridiculous, but this is exactly the kind of false causation they leap to create. You can see the clear pattern here: very dodgy data collection, full of massive assumptions and sometimes they just outright make numbers up
Apparently no one even bothered to even click on the source and the pdf links to them that these news articles created headlines out of and find out directly where they got these crazy numbers from and how they added them together.
Just to break this down, for context and comparison.
Now how did they get to these numbers. Well it turns out it's from the CMS (Center For Migration Control) who on their blog post, includes the freedom of information act from the police.
Here is the scummy part, when you download the FOI file, there is huge sections that have been deleted
They dug around online and found the original and there it is the large section
It includes a very specific note that says that number of custody records do not equal the number of individuals. Basically 1 person could have been arrested multiple times and some people would even have been arrested and not been found guilty.
If you have 1 guy that commits 10 crimes for instance , this report would log each of them as separate incidents but done by 1 person. The police makes this very clear but what the CMS did was delete this section that specified this and count every single incident as separate individuals/people committing different offenses.
This is not even the scummiest part. They don’t use real census population data of any of these groups in London in the report, they use a fabricated number of 12.000 for each immigrant population
They just made up “12,000” as the baseline number for immigrant groups because they admitted they didn’t have the data.
So lets say we use the number CMS gives but put it against the actual population number of Afghans for example which stands on 50k according to public census data.
10k = 16.5/50K X 10.000 = 3.3 rate which is very similar to the British rate of 2.20
So you don't even get that crazy rate of 20 times higher or whatever they reported on which is BS. It's complete pseudo science junk they farted out. But it get's shared everywhere and you constantly hear it. They rarely gets fact check on it.
And it’s not new. I noticed the same with Norwegian stats (that @The alchemist helped translate). Right wing outlets spun them into clickbait headlines about Somalis being the “worst offenders.” But when you dig, it’s the same manipulation.
He also makes another key point, that is comparing a youth heavy migrant population to an elderly native population is dishonest. Most crimes are committed by young men in general , so of course the rate will look a bit skewed if you compare it like that.
Another thing he shows is how some crime areas are due to unequal urban economic factors not immigrants or cultural ethnic make up.
He creates the analogy to show this by using Blackpool which is 94% white British with high crime rate of 65.33 and compares it to Rabbat in Morocco which has a very low crime rate of 29.73. If we followed the same faulty logic they use against immigrants we can argue that white pool has high crime because it is White British culture or race.
It’s obviously ridiculous, but this is exactly the kind of false causation they leap to create. You can see the clear pattern here: very dodgy data collection, full of massive assumptions and sometimes they just outright make numbers up
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