The reasons Ethiopia wants its own port are frankly easy to understand. Given their situation it’s only natural. The country has a large population, about 135 million today, and projected to surpass 200 million by 2050. Its leadership is doing everything it can to become the region’s hegemonic great power; the first step toward that is economic growth, and being landlocked only hampers it.
For context, 80% of the world’s trade volume is transported by sea, below I'll state a few disadvantages Ethiopia deals with by being landlocked:
- The first disadvantage is that it's dependent on the political stability of its neighbors. Imagine the disruption a border closure, coup attempt, or civil war could cause to its trade and supply chains.
- Second, it suffers from higher transportation costs. It must rely on the road and rail infrastructure of neighboring countries and pay the port fees and tariffs they impose.
- Third, it has reduced geopolitical autonomy. It must maintain good diplomatic relations with it's neighbors at all times, or its access to ports could be threatened.
- Fourth, it has a severely restricted ability to build a navy, project power, or patrol strategic maritime trade routes.
Frankly, the best thing the Kacaan did was support Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia.
Being landlocked is like having bricks tied to your ankles economically and geopolitically.
Think of the all the industries Somalia can develop just for having a coastline: I'm talking fisheries, maritime transport, shipbuilding/maintenance & repair, we can also build a navy, and develop deep-water ports. Much of our population also lives right by the sea, which helps reduce transportation and logistics costs.
All this to say there's a reason Ethiopia pushed federalism and fragmentation on Somalia. The natural advantages we have while also having irredentist ambitions poses a direct threat to Ethiopia, but we've only squandered it. Somaliweyn realized would make us the natural hegemonic great power of the Horn at Ethiopia's expense. This is the vision those that push for breakaway clan states, and clan fiefdom autonomy don't see, they lack the cognitive abilities to imagine such a scenario. The only reason Ethiopia hasn't swallowed Djibouti is because of all the foreign military bases there, an independent Somaliland or Puntland would face the same vulnerability. Such theoretical countries would lack the population or strategic depth to remain independent against Ethiopia for long. This is why the natural conclusion every non-qabilist Somali comes to is being a Somaliweynist.
