IOG Explains Why Ethiopia Rejected Tadjoura Port Offer

[IKHALIIL]

Jeune Afrique: You proposed a joint management of your port in Tadjourah to Ethiopia. What was their response?

IOG: The Ethiopians sent us a delegation with a proposal that we could not accept: to establish a corridor with extraterritoriality between the Ethiopian border and Tadjourah and to set up a naval base for their navy. This was not what we had agreed upon. Therefore, this matter is now closed.

 

[Garsoore]

What use would that be? Maybe building a fleet to one day invade Eritrea on both land and sea? Or just Xabash delusions of grandeur. They're taught in their schools that Menelik leased Djibouti to France and that Djibouti is theirs rightfully( a lie ). However we can't deny that the Afars have historically been subjects of Abyssinia paying to Abyssinia annual tributes

 

[balanbalis]

What use would that be? Maybe building a fleet to one day invade Eritrea on both land and sea? Or just Xabash delusions of grandeur. They're taught in their schools that Menelik leased Djibouti to France and that Djibouti is theirs rightfully( a lie ). However we can't deny that the Afars have historically been subjects of Abyssinia paying to Abyssinia annual tributes

They want to absorb the entirety of the Afar triangle (and thus gain access to the Red Sea), honestly I think they could make a deal with Eritrea by reimbursing them with Tigray lands

 

[Medeea]

It’s obvious Addis isn’t just after sea access(no one is blocking them). This isn’t about a port or even a dulational naval base either. Addis wants to redraw the borders ones again. It’s that simple.
Turkey blocked Addis and the SNM rebel’s plan. Now their focus is on Eritrea( Assab always been their main goal anyway). If they fail, they will turn back to us sooner or later.

They want to absorb the entirety of the Afar triangle (and thus gain access to the Red Sea), honestly I think they could make a deal with Eritrea by reimbursing them with Tigray lands

Afars were always the loyal subjugates of Habesha. But I don’t think majority of Eritreans will ever accept such a plan. Addis has a better chance annexing the cowards in Awdal than taking Assab

 

[Zak12]

It’s obvious Addis isn’t just after sea access(no one is blocking them). This isn’t about a port or even a dulational naval base either. Addis wants to redraw the borders ones again. It’s that simple.
Turkey blocked Addis and the SNM rebel’s plan. Now their focus is on Eritrea( Assab always been their main goal anyway). If they fail, they will turn back to us sooner or later.

Afars were always the loyal subjugates of Habesha. But I don’t think majority of Eritreans will ever accept such a plan. Addis has a better chance annexing the cowards in Awdal than taking Assab

Their goal is only Assab. Somalia has no ports large or developed enough for their needs and they lost their 19% stake on Berbera.

Too bad for them that Eritrea is more or less a military nation sitting on mountainous terrain. A war against Eritrea would be even costlier than Tigray. And Somalia's international's partners like Turkey, Egypt and Qatar aren't siding with Ethiopia's aspirations either.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

What use would that be? Maybe building a fleet to one day invade Eritrea on both land and sea? Or just Xabash delusions of grandeur. They're taught in their schools that Menelik leased Djibouti to France and that Djibouti is theirs rightfully( a lie ). However we can't deny that the Afars have historically been subjects of Abyssinia paying to Abyssinia annual tributes

They want a navy so they can blockade places like Eritrea and even Somalia. By having a navy, you can plausibly declare a blockade and render all shipping to your adversary uninsurable. It would be an existential threat to Somalia for Ethiopia to have a navy again.

This is why Somaliland can never be allowed to become an independent state. They are likely to side with Ethiopia on security matters and weaken Somalia's position.

 

[Keep it a boqol]

It’s obvious Addis isn’t just after sea access(no one is blocking them). This isn’t about a port or even a dulational naval base either. Addis wants to redraw the borders ones again. It’s that simple.
Turkey blocked Addis and the SNM rebel’s plan. Now their focus is on Eritrea( Assab always been their main goal anyway). If they fail, they will turn back to us sooner or later.

Afars were always the loyal subjugates of Habesha. But I don’t think majority of Eritreans will ever accept such a plan. Addis has a better chance annexing the cowards in Awdal than taking Assab

The eritrean state wouldn’t accept this but don’t overlook the cuqdad and xasidnimo of the afars.

Eritrean Afars would happily accept to be part of ethiopia if they were promised some sort of autonomous statehood

 

[balanbalis]

The eritrean state wouldn’t accept this but don’t overlook the cuqdad and xasidnimo of the afars.

Eritrean Afars would happily accept to be part of ethiopia if they were promised some sort of autonomous statehood

100% even Djiboutian afars are biased towards Ethiopia and Eritrea, they’d gladly join

 

[Maintainnnin]

The reasons Ethiopia wants its own port are frankly easy to understand. Given their situation it’s only natural. The country has a large population, about 135 million today, and projected to surpass 200 million by 2050. Its leadership is doing everything it can to become the region’s hegemonic great power; the first step toward that is economic growth, and being landlocked only hampers it.

For context, 80% of the world’s trade volume is transported by sea, below I'll state a few disadvantages Ethiopia deals with by being landlocked:

• The first disadvantage is that it's dependent on the political stability of its neighbors. Imagine the disruption a border closure, coup attempt, or civil war could cause to its trade and supply chains.
• Second, it suffers from higher transportation costs. It must rely on the road and rail infrastructure of neighboring countries and pay the port fees and tariffs they impose.
• Third, it has reduced geopolitical autonomy. It must maintain good diplomatic relations with it's neighbors at all times, or its access to ports could be threatened.
• Fourth, it has a severely restricted ability to build a navy, project power, or patrol strategic maritime trade routes.

Frankly, the best thing the Kacaan did was support Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia.
Being landlocked is like having bricks tied to your ankles economically and geopolitically.
Think of the all the industries Somalia can develop just for having a coastline: I'm talking fisheries, maritime transport, shipbuilding/maintenance & repair, we can also build a navy, and develop deep-water ports. Much of our population also lives right by the sea, which helps reduce transportation and logistics costs.

All this to say there's a reason Ethiopia pushed federalism and fragmentation on Somalia. The natural advantages we have while also having irredentist ambitions poses a direct threat to Ethiopia, but we've only squandered it. Somaliweyn realized would make us the natural hegemonic great power of the Horn at Ethiopia's expense. This is the vision those that push for breakaway clan states, and clan fiefdom autonomy don't see, they lack the cognitive abilities to imagine such a scenario. The only reason Ethiopia hasn't swallowed Djibouti is because of all the foreign military bases there, an independent Somaliland or Puntland would face the same vulnerability. Such theoretical countries would lack the population or strategic depth to remain independent against Ethiopia for long. This is why the natural conclusion every non-qabilist Somali comes to is being a Somaliweynist.

 

[Zak12]

The only reason Ethiopia hasn't swallowed Djibouti is because of all the foreign military bases there, an independent Somaliland or Puntland would face the same vulnerability. Such theoretical countries would lack the population or strategic depth to remain independent against Ethiopia for long. This is why the natural conclusion every non-qabilist Somali comes to is being a Somaliweynist.

What is more concerning is the possibility of the current world order breaking down. If that happens, Ethiopia would defintely take its chances and invade Somalia (likely the north) to annex it and get as much coastline as possible. Its the easier target after all since a war with Eritrea would be extremely costly.

 

[Midas]

The reasons Ethiopia wants its own port are frankly easy to understand. Given their situation it’s only natural. The country has a large population, about 135 million today, and projected to surpass 200 million by 2050. Its leadership is doing everything it can to become the region’s hegemonic great power; the first step toward that is economic growth, and being landlocked only hampers it.

For context, 80% of the world’s trade volume is transported by sea, below I'll state a few disadvantages Ethiopia deals with by being landlocked:

• The first disadvantage is that it's dependent on the political stability of its neighbors. Imagine the disruption a border closure, coup attempt, or civil war could cause to its trade and supply chains.
• Second, it suffers from higher transportation costs. It must rely on the road and rail infrastructure of neighboring countries and pay the port fees and tariffs they impose.
• Third, it has reduced geopolitical autonomy. It must maintain good diplomatic relations with it's neighbors at all times, or its access to ports could be threatened.
• Fourth, it has a severely restricted ability to build a navy, project power, or patrol strategic maritime trade routes.

Frankly, the best thing the Kacaan did was support Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia.
Being landlocked is like having bricks tied to your ankles economically and geopolitically.
Think of the all the industries Somalia can develop just for having a coastline: I'm talking fisheries, maritime transport, shipbuilding/maintenance & repair, we can also build a navy, and develop deep-water ports. Much of our population also lives right by the sea, which helps reduce transportation and logistics costs.

All this to say there's a reason Ethiopia pushed federalism and fragmentation on Somalia. The natural advantages we have while also having irredentist ambitions poses a direct threat to Ethiopia, but we've only squandered it. Somaliweyn realized would make us the natural hegemonic great power of the Horn at Ethiopia's expense. This is the vision those that push for breakaway clan states, and clan fiefdom autonomy don't see, they lack the cognitive abilities to imagine such a scenario. The only reason Ethiopia hasn't swallowed Djibouti is because of all the foreign military bases there, an independent Somaliland or Puntland would face the same vulnerability. Such theoretical countries would lack the population or strategic depth to remain independent against Ethiopia for long. This is why the natural conclusion every non-qabilist Somali comes to is being a Somaliweynist.

Somalias greatest stroke of fortune was melaes zenawi dying so early. I cant imagine how much more developed and powerful ethiopia woukd have been if that guy was still alive. Abiy has in 5 short years undone decades of state lead development and economic growth.

 

[Bursalah]

Meles Zenawi ruled at a time where America was leading a modern crusade (War on Terror). A Christian toddler would’ve had success against our black muslim ass. He failed to take Eritrea in 98. He failed to occupy Somalia in 2007. His politics were the same old feudal iskudir while benefiting the Tigray region. Compared to the gorilla Mengistu and the illiterate Haile Selassie he had a good speech righter and biographer on his side. Abiy has the first batch of Second Generation Ethiopian Jews sent from Israeli spy school on his side.

 

[Medeea]

Their goal is only Assab. Somalia has no ports large or developed enough for their needs and they lost their 19% stake on Berbera.

Too bad for them that Eritrea is more or less a military nation sitting on mountainous terrain. A war against Eritrea would be even costlier than Tigray. And Somalia's international's partners like Turkey, Egypt and Qatar aren't siding with Ethiopia's aspirations either.

Like I said, their main goal will always be Assab. But if they keep failing, they will soon or later settle for Awdal.

The world is moving away from the post-ww2’s rules based order(unless you’re Murica or USSR). Internationally recognized borders are becoming irrelevant again and it’s shifting back to a might makes right world, like it was before the Berlin Conference.

We entering It’s a grab what you can era now.

Meles Zenawi ruled at a time where America was leading a modern crusade (War on Terror). A Christian toddler would’ve had success against our black muslim ass. He failed to take Eritrea in 98. He failed to occupy Somalia in 2007. His politics were the same old feudal iskudir while benefiting the Tigray region. Compared to the gorilla Mengistu and the illiterate Haile Selassie he had a good speech righter and biographer on his side. Abiy has the first batch of Second Generation Ethiopian Jews sent from Israeli spy school on his side.

He removed the Abyssinian/Amhara deep state without dismantling the ENDF or other key institutions. How is that not impressive??
And divide and conquer does indeed work very well short term, but it fails in the long run. Maybe he thought he had more time on earth annd envisioned something else or maybe power got to his head. Who knows.
But ever since, Aidopia been racing to the bottom. And America was still deep in its war on Islam for nearly a decade after he baaqted. So it can’t be that.
Abioyd Axmaq reminds me a lot of Barre. A complete disaster.

 

[JamalFarah]

People hate IOG but he's clever enough to have situated Djibouti in a situation where invasion is a non-option without having to trade minerals, resources, money or land...

 

[Riftvalley]

Dirty black Zionist Abiy