In case Ethiopia tries to invade Eritrea, do you think Somalia and Somali groups like ONLF will stand with Eritrea ?

[Sup]

Ethiopia invading Eritrea is highly unlikely for many factors. Ethiopia both militarily and economically is currently not in a position to start a war, they barely could defeat the army in Tigray and that win was due to the fact Eritrean troops and Turkish military hardware with provided. If they do decide to go ahead with this war, it will plunge Ethiopia into a perpetual state of anarchy that will surpass that of the fall of the Somali government. Ethiopia at the moment is experiencing armed rebellion from multiple factions, the national government has lost control of nearly half of the country. Much like the MOU signed with SL, I am under the impression that this scenario is similar if not the same, a theoretical ploy designed to fool the masses, a ploy to forget about their current reality, to disarm said rebels into submission via nationalism for one’s country. Abyie seems to be using the same tactics over and over again. In regard to Somalia’s support, that is unlikely as Somalia is currently not in a position to help itself let alone others. Although moral and economic support would be given by the government and people as a whole.

 

[EritreanPost_]

Somalia is in no position, in any meaningful sense, to support Eritrea neither politically nor militarily. The presence of Ethiopian troops on Somali soil underscores the complex entanglements that hinder such an alignment. If any Somali actors were to express tacit or explicit support for Eritrea, it would most likely be limited to non-state groups such as Al Shabaab, or perhaps the Ogaden National Liberation Front However, the ONLF's influence has considerably waned since its more militant heyday in the early 2000s indeed


Should Eritrea genuinely wish to rally the Somali people to its cause, it must take bold and constructive steps to mediate the longstanding disputes that have fragmented Somali unity. This would include brokering a resolution between Somalia and Somaliland, as well as addressing the protracted conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia and AlShabaab. If Eritrea were to successfully resolve these delicate impasses, it would likely gain the respect and alignment of Somalis across the political spectrum and there would be some solution to it.


As it stands now Mogadishu appears to be warming relations with Addis Ababa, particularly in light of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's apparent retreat from supporting the controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland. Puntland, entangled in its own tensions with the central government in Mogadishu, would likely adopt a posture of neutrality in the event of a renewed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, having little vested interest in the matter. simply it doesnt concern them.


As for Djibouti, for its part, may offer discreet support to Eritrea, motivated by a strategic interest in preventing Ethiopia from securing direct access to the red sea an outcome that would diminish Djibouti’s own geopolitical relevance and economic stability .


As for Somaliland, the situation is more nuanced. While it enjoys a cordial relationship with Ethiopia, it also stands to lose considerably should Ethiopia obtain sovereign access to the coast, berbera would become useless Thus, Somaliland finds itself in a delicate quandary, uncertain of how best to proceed.


That said, it seems unlikely that Prime Minister Abiy Axmed ali would act with such recklessness as to launch a direct military incursion into Eritrean territory. The risks, both regional and international, would far outweigh any perceived strategic gain. Somalis as people might morally back eritrea but that would be meaningless since it wont have any impact at all

Thank your for insight sxb.

Shall Ethiopia invade Eritrea, Eritrea definitely back the ONLF.

Hopefully Eritrea will also back the Somali issas. because they will be key to control the Djibouti-Ethiopia highway/railway in case Abiy Ahmed attacks Eritrea

 

[ZBR]

Ogaden is more important and for Somalis , Eritrea should be hated the same it’s a colonial project of Habesha Christians over a majority or near Muslim country and the majority of land is Muslim except the small northwest highland

 

[Jaffar]

Ogaden is more important and for Somalis , Eritrea should be hated the same it’s a colonial project of Habesha Christians over a majority or near Muslim country and the majority of land is Muslim except the small northwest highland

I don’t think Eritreans divide themselves along regionaal or religiouse lines . They are very partiotic despite being a hetrogeneous society. Eritrea is a good strategic partner actually for all Somalis if you look at it from a broader perspective

 

[reer]

Ogaden is more important and for Somalis , Eritrea should be hated the same it’s a colonial project of Habesha Christians over a majority or near Muslim country and the majority of land is Muslim except the small northwest highland

eritrea is a half half split.

@EritreanPost_ afwerki is a christian habesha but his arabic is excellent. his pronunciation and intonation are excellent. especially some of the hard letters ح/x and ع/c.

@Shimbiris @Thegoodshepherd

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Couldn’t care less

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

Galbeed will not be a theater of war until the EDF and OLF wins a few big battles to connect Eritrea-Wollo-Oromia or until the EDF wins air supremacy, thus opening supply lines to Galbeed.

Somalia proper likely will not join the war due to Shabaab, SL has no bone in the game, and PL might genuinely fight on the side of Ethiopia.

Today the ONLF has no heavy weapons, and compared to Somali Liyyu it is both outmanned* and outgunned.

*in terms of active fighters

 

[Jaffar]

eritrea is a half half split.

@EritreanPost_ afwerki is a christian habesha but his arabic is excellent. his pronunciation and intonation are excellent. especially some of the hard letters ح/x and ع/c.

@Shimbiris @Thegoodshepherd

Tigirnya is a semetic language close to Arabic so its not hard to learn Arabic

 

[reer]

Tigirnya is a semetic language close to Arabic so its not hard to learn Arabic

his arabic sounds better than a lot of muslim habeshas. its not just the letters but his tone is really good.