Implications of East Asia imploding

[GemState]

South Korea’s World-Lowest Fertility Rate Set to Fall Further

Low fertility threatens to undermine South Korea’s economic future by shrinking its workforce and slowing consumption.

time.com

Sometimes it is illustrating to demonstrate what a statistic like this actually means with basic math.

A TFR of 0.7 is equivalent to saying that for every 20 people, the next generation will have only 7.

If you start out with a population of 800 in the first generation, the next one will have 280, the third one will have 98, and the fourth will have 34. In other words, there would be 23x as many people in the oldest cohort as there are in the youngest.

At TFR 0.6: 800 → 240 → 72 → 21.
At TFR 0.5: 800 → 200 → 50 → 12.

An additional problem is that these rates are not constant either but also declining regularly, seemingly without end.

Over time, more people drop out of the workforce and draw on the pension system. This creates an additional financial burden on the fertile and working-age population which either manifests through taxes, increases in the cost of living, or otherwise being shut out from the ability to save and build lasting wealth. This pushes TFR lower and lower, approaching zero. It will become the world's biggest death spiral

 

[GemState]

The continued Atheism of the West, East Asia staying below 0.8, and Indian fertility continuing to steadily decrease will mean 2 big things;

- Islam will become the world's dominant faith by a massive, massive margin. Which, considering it's the youngest of the big faiths is just mind-boggling.

- Africa will be the largest continent this century.

 

[Abdixakim]

The continued Atheism of the West, East Asia staying below 0.8, and Indian fertility continuing to steadily decrease will mean 2 big things;

- Islam will become the world's dominant faith by a massive, massive margin. Which, considering it's the youngest of the big faiths is just mind-boggling.

- Africa will be the largest continent this century.

Do you think Malaysia and Indonesia can replace Japan and Korea?

 

[GemState]

Do you think Malaysia and Indonesia can replace Japan and Korea?

Malaysia will get close, but I don't think it will reach Korea/Japan. Perhaps 60-70% of Japan's per capita income.

Indonesia will become a larger economy than SK/Japan, but it won't be as rich. Maybe a per capita income close to Mexico/Brazil.

 

[bohom]

- Africa will be the largest continent this century.

Imagine the twitter debates between all the different type of Africans

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The continued Atheism of the West, East Asia staying below 0.8, and Indian fertility continuing to steadily decrease will mean 2 big things;

- Islam will become the world's dominant faith by a massive, massive margin. Which, considering it's the youngest of the big faiths is just mind-boggling.

- Africa will be the largest continent this century.

Sadly even Indonesia will dip below replacement this year. Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, India, Nepal and maybe Vietnam will probably grow old before they get rich. China is already beginning to look like 1990s Japan at a GDP per capita of just $13,000, just 1/6 of US. At least South Korea got rich first and has the fiscal firepower to mitigate the damage, much like Japan. All of these other Asian countries will be far too poor to deal with the budgetary blackhole that is aging. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2...-of-asia-are-getting-old-before-they-get-rich

 

[Sedderr1234]

I know african fertility rates are highest currently but there’s been a big decrease in just a decade. Look at 2010 vs 2020 African fertility rates

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

I hope African countries don't accept "medicine" without checking it first. Rest assured the people obsessed with curbing population growth are plotting or have done so already.

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

I know african fertility rates are highest currently but there’s been a big decrease in just a decade. Look at 2010 vs 2020 African fertility rates

If there is a decrease, that should ring alarm bells, I would suspect interference and not a natural occurrence.

 

[Miskeen_10]

If there is a decrease, that should ring alarm bells, I would suspect interference and not a natural occurrence.

Its mostly due to increasing urbanisation and a concentrated effort in womens education. The more educated the women become they less children they tend to have.

 

[Abdisamadi]

African populations getting bigger during a time of climate change and increased xenophobia is not good for anyone. What’s probably going to happen is these states collapse and you get far right leaders gunning down boats and civilians at the border like the Saudis are doing to Africans.

Scary times

 

[GemState]

Sadly even Indonesia will dip below replacement this year. Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, India, Nepal and maybe Vietnam will probably grow old before they get rich. China is already beginning to look like 1990s Japan at a GDP per capita of just $13,000, just 1/6 of US. At least South Korea got rich first and has the fiscal firepower to mitigate the damage, much like Japan. All of these other Asian countries will be far too poor to deal with the budgetary blackhole that is aging. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2...-of-asia-are-getting-old-before-they-get-rich

Developing countries of 100s of millions if not billions seem to never live up to potential. The sweetspot seems to be in the 30-60m range, where you can conceivably keep growing through immigration, similar to Malaysia.

On a side note, immensely curious about the TFR of very Conservative muslims in Indonesia. They are starting to do more research papers on this, which is very good. These groups being more prominent won't stop overall fertility decline, but if they can stay at the 1.7-2 range for a while, they'll be in decent shape, especially next to their neighbors

 

[Keep it a boqol]

africa will be the largest continent and inshallah muslims will be the majority population of the africa. In nigeria the north men muslim tribes have a much more larger population then the christian southers. this is also because of urbanization and rural populations have higher fertility

 

[Miskeen_10]

African populations getting bigger during a time of climate change and increased xenophobia is not good for anyone. What’s probably going to happen is these states collapse and you get far right leaders gunning down boats and civilians at the border like the Saudis are doing to Africans.

Scary times

Genocide will occur, you can see the warning signs everywhere. People already view Africans as low iq violent parasites.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

If there is a decrease, that should ring alarm bells, I would suspect interference and not a natural occurrence.

Population decrease is not bad, the growth recently is insane. What is the point having millions more people if you don’t even have the basic infrastructure required to support them? All you’re doing is condemning innocent children to suffer all their lives until death.

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

Population decrease is not bad, the growth recently is insane. What is the point having millions more people if you don’t even have the basic infrastructure required to support them? All you’re doing is condemning innocent children to suffer all their lives until death.

I don't believe in having children without control, I believe in family planning. However, I don't agree with these nefarious cadaans interfering with people's fertility.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

I don't believe in having children without control, I believe in family planning. However, I don't agree with these nefarious cadaans interfering with people's fertility.

Population control is sometimes needed, especially in the third world, it’s just needless suffering. Once the nation has elevated itself to developed status can people be allowed to have as many children as they want.

 

[Gojo Satoru]

I don't believe in having children without control, I believe in family planning. However, I don't agree with these nefarious cadaans interfering with people's fertility.

Nobody is interfering with Africa's fertility rate if anything there'd be less people without the aid

 

[JustSomeGuy]

Nobody is interfering with Africa's fertility rate if anything there'd be less people without the aid

Exactly, idk why baseless conspiracy theories are so popular when it comes to Africa, always blaming their failures on the “evil West!!”

 

[Revolutionarry]

Sadly, this is happening to the wrong people. We need this to be happening to fucking India.