If new elections were held, Raila Odinga Shariif would be in the 6th place and Failed Farmaajo "will not run for president again" kkkk

[The Midlands]

Before the last elections i put Raila Odinga Sharif in the 5th place and also stated that the failed Farmaajo will not get more than 70 votes in the first round. I had xog from an mp that Farmaajo will get 50 votes but i didn't like to go that far. Reerow Hassan Abdi Nur his Agaasime who is a candidate for their seat in Baladweyne has revealed to us alot of secrets about Farmaajo and one of them was that he thinks he will not dare to run again for president bc next time he may score like under 30 votes

He said Fahad thinks to back another Candidate could be Kheyre

He said he paid too much money for gaylan media who recruited alot of guys with computer background so he can attract wider audience by opening non political branches like the sport section. He said Fahad who has Journalistic background gave this idea

Farmaajo will also make excuse of not running again for president that its not one-man one-vote elections "because Jamaahiirta are not voting" kkkkk

He had only paid IDPS and paid CBB but in reality he was the most hated president who failed to lead the first round and in the third round he was behind Hassan Sheikh 100 votes.

Next elections will be indirect elections but with more than labo deegaan doorasho there wont be Khawaarij any more even middle Jubba so elections will be held in many cities

Liberator Hassan Sh will be leading the first round.

The next elections Dir votes will be controlled by SL and Djibouti so they will go to "Irir candidate"

SL will not be the Same it may exist as Nothern State

D&M votes will be controlled by the UPD Hussein sheikh maxmuud agaasimaha Hassan Sheeikh who will replace Laftagareen.


I don't think raila odinga will be in the 5th place next time.

 

[bidenkulaha]

There’s a few opportunities for Hassan this time to clean up some loose ends like Galmudug MPs. Most supported him but the smaller clans (ironically Waceysle too) were hand picked by Fahad Yasin. Guudlawe allowed free and fair elections but this time HSM will have a lot more funds to win UPD seats in Hirshabelle. KG is going to be a big difference with LG out. He can even handpick most of these MPs as many clans are too weak. JL with Hamza Barre can split JL again. Another Ceelwaaq election that delivers 10 UPD inshallah. SL will be completely under SL (however much they claim they won’t take part)+Djibouti this time.

 

[anon2]

How and why is Fahad Yasin still a player in Somali politics? Also, you are correct, if 1m1v is established Mr. Cheese will win by a landslide hence why he would be stupid run to run without 1m1v. If SL become 2-3 Northern FMS, I think a candidate can emerge from there, but who will it be? Wallahi, Somali politics is a riwaayad clown-show.

 

[bidenkulaha]

How and why is Fahad Yasin still a player in Somali politics? Also, you are correct, if 1m1v is established Mr. Cheese will win by a landslide hence why he would be stupid run to run without 1m1v. If SL become 2-3 Northern FMS, I think a candidate can emerge from there, but who will it be? Wallahi, Somali politics is a riwaayad clown-show.

He’s funded in the hundreds of millions by Qatar. No country is willing to fund a single ‘mulkiila’ to that level. Brings with him a lot of leverage and funds to buy MPs in elections.

Mahad Salad got a lot of funding from Egypt for HSM but nowhere near that level. Many won’t believe this but it’s common knowledge HSM is broke

 

[The Midlands]

The bigggest reason Hasssan Sh backed Laftagareens extension is "inuu dhiso agaasimihiisa" Hussein Sheikh maxamuud who will replace laftageen. He don't trust anymore the rest like Fargeeti who is married to Abgaal woman after he let them down so he fully gone for his agaasime through Wasaarada gudaha. This will make D&M votes more pro Hassan Sheikh next time.

 

[Calaami]

How and why is Fahad Yasin still a player in Somali politics? Also, you are correct, if 1m1v is established Mr. Cheese will win by a landslide hence why he would be stupid run to run without 1m1v. If SL become 2-3 Northern FMS, I think a candidate can emerge from there, but who will it be? Wallahi, Somali politics is a riwaayad clown-show.

Fahad is a friend and ally of the Qatari royal family. They trust him and give him hundreds of millions to advance their interests in Somalia.

If he’s behind you it’s likely you’re going to win. He doesn’t respect Farmaajo due to his reluctance to fight PL and JL at a greater level so he likely won’t back him again.

I concur with @The Midlands in that he’ll probably back Kheyre.

 

[bidenkulaha]

The bigggest reason Hasssan Sh backed Laftagareens extension is "inuu dhiso agaasimihiisa" Hussein Sheikh maxamuud who will replace laftageen. He don't trust anymore the rest like Fargeeti who is married to Abgaal woman after he let them down so he fully gone for his agaasime through Wasaarada gudaha. This will make D&M votes more pro Hassan Sheikh next time.

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It’s very important HSM picks a political soulmate in KG. Kheyre has support within UPD. A while back there were rumours Daljir and Damuljadiid behind the scenes are warring. They cleared out some Kheyre allies.

Also I’m surprised you don’t mention Sanbaloolshe given you did with Fargeeti. He can flip and if HSM wants a Xawadle HS President then he’s gonna go with his nephew

 

[anon2]

@bidenkulaha @Calaami
I see, Farmaajo must've been seen as "weak" than others however he is still the most popular political figure by far, as long 1m1v doesn't happen he is out of the race. What's so special about Kheyre? He didn't even last 2 years right?

Qatar and the UAE have to much skin in the game in Somalia, I don't understand why these Dhegacas are even playing checkers with Somali political figures, Fahad Yasin, HSM, etc all have the same goal right? Centralization? What is stopping them from coming together and using/playing both UAE and Qatar to create a song central government, even a semi-strong one would do wonders. The US/China and other countries will come rushing in to support whoever is leading as a strong Somalia is needed to counter China/US influence or vice versa. Even have a sovereignty goes a long way and can be used as leverage on the geopolitical stage

 

[bidenkulaha]

@bidenkulaha @Calaami
I see, Farmaajo must've been seen as "weak" than others however he is still the most popular political figure by far, as long 1m1v doesn't happen he is out of the race. What's so special about Kheyre? He didn't even last 2 years right?

Qatar and the UAE have to much skin in the game in Somalia, I don't understand why these Dhegacas are even playing checkers with Somali political figures, Fahad Yasin, HSM, etc all have the same goal right? Centralization? What is stopping them from coming together and using/playing both UAE and Qatar to create a song central government, even a semi-strong one would do wonders. The US/China and other countries will come rushing in to support whoever is leading as a strong Somalia is needed to counter China/US influence or vice versa. Even have a sovereignty goes a long way and can be used as leverage on the geopolitical stage

Fahad used to work for HSM, same with Kheyre but betrayed him for Farmaajo. In fact Kheyre stole the campaign finances of HSM.

Kheyre has all the positives of HSM for Djibouti/SL+hawiye etc. and is on the Qatar side of the UAE vs Qatar rivalry. He’s also got a following in UPD itself

 

[anon2]

Fahad used to work for HSM, same with Kheyre but betrayed him for Farmaajo. In fact Kheyre stole the campaign finances of HSM.

Kheyre has all the positives of HSM for Djibouti/SL+hawiye etc. and is on the Qatar side of the UAE vs Qatar rivalry. He’s also got a following in UPD itself

Do you think there any other players as of now other than Kheyre? A candidate that's unknown? or are the chances very low? This cycle seems too repetitive and 1m1v will only bring up Farmaajo

 

[The Midlands]

Next elections will be indirect elections again but 1000 people will vote for each mp, many districts instead of two could be all in all districts of every gobol for example 5 districts in Hiiiraan

NO malxiis it will be abit open competition but still the SEIT or FMS will control it.

 

[Calaami]

Do you think there any other players as of now other than Kheyre? A candidate that's unknown? or are the chances very low? This cycle seems too repetitive and 1m1v will only bring up Farmaajo

The odds of newcomers coming in are unlikely.

So many impressive western Somalis go back home to run for President and get destroyed by these foreign backed guys.

You simply cannot compete with a dude who has 10 million in his pocket and you brought 100k of hard earned lacag. The only way to stand a chance is to get the patronage of a foreign nation, preferably a wealthy one.

Adan Adde son didn’t even make it to round 0 this year miskiinka lol

 

[anon2]

The odds of newcomers coming in are unlikely.

So many impressive western Somalis go back home to run for President and get destroyed by these foreign backed guys.

You simply cannot compete with a dude who has 10 million in his pocket and you brought 100k of hard earned lacag. The only way to stand a chance is to get the patronage of a foreign nation, preferably a wealthy one.

Adan Adde son didn’t even make it to round 0 this year miskiinka lol

That's heartbreaking Wallahi. A change is needed badly

 

[Yusuf Abdi Ali Rashid]

So what i’m getting from this thread is that you simply need a lot of money to win the somali elections? that might just be the best investment ever. Spend a few Million to become president, gain access to the federal budget, and then siphon off as much money as you can. You can flip your investment by 100 fold.

 

[The Midlands]

Fahad is a friend and ally of the Qatari royal family. They trust him and give him hundreds of millions to advance their interests in Somalia.

If he’s behind you it’s likely you’re going to win. He doesn’t respect Farmaajo due to his reluctance to fight PL and JL at a greater level so he likely won’t back him again.

I concur with @The Midlands in that he’ll probably back Kheyre.

QUOTE]Yes. Fahad works for Qatar interests not Farmaajo. Qatar told Farmaajo to retire in one of Sheikha Moza palaces and leave politics forever to give a chance to a new candidate. This is why his CBB are flooking to Xamar like "Difaac Qaran" because Farmaajo has stopped paying them.
Ahead of the elections, Fahad has suggested to Farmaajo to withdraw from the race in the second round if he received insufficient votes but thanks to the macangad xukun jeceel he refused to withdraw even being behind Deni . Fahad told him that "you will give our Damjadeed enemies an opportunity to hunt us if they reach power so please can you withdrew in favour of Kheyre if you are not the mps beloved president in the first round so the votes of Hawiye can go to Kheyre and the votes of Daarood can go to Deni and thus Hassan Sheikh will be out" he said NO IM SURE THEY LOVE ME

Fahads candidate for the speaker scored less than 90 votes in the first round so he told him to withdraw from the race this was an experimental for Fahad for the presidential elections so Kheyre can win if Farmaajo withdraws from the race after the first round but he refused to do so. Im Sahal who revealed this.

 

[Starswarz1]

President HSM term will end in 2027 and Galmudug by then would have an new President (Mahad Salad) serving until 2030/31 and this is all I care about an experienced battle hardened President leading Galmudug state, hopefully by then Galmudug will have an functioning port.

All those candidates running for Somalia's Presidency will be useless and powerless as Somalia would be functioning under the federalism platform.

 

[The Midlands]

President HSM term will end in 2027 and Galmudug by then would have an new President (Mahad Salad) serving until 2030/31 and this is all I care about an experienced battle hardened President leading Galmudug state, hopefully by then Galmudug will have an functioning port.

All those candidates running for Somalia's Presidency will be useless and powerless as Somalia would be functioning under the federalism platform.

There are three factors: FMS like the case of Deni, Money like the case of Kheyre and mucaarad/anti Farmaajo votes ike the case of Hassan Sheikh. Hassan Sheikh having the FMS, Money, Irir and many D&M next time no doubt he will lead it in the first round like 2017 but im not ike these cult followers who were claiming Farmaajo to win in the first round just few days ago of the elections even when he had no control over the elections. I will say some one from PL will be in the second position and Fahad candidate likely Kheyre in the third position. We will see other candidates ahead of Sharif.