I am quite worried

[Aseer]

Things could go bad for us if this happens Somalia or Djibouti would stand zero chance considering Djibouti is heavily outnumbered and the Somali people quarrelling amongst themselves...

 

[mohammdov]

Djibouti will be protected by France, but Somalia is the one in danger

 

[repo]

Somalia is not on the Red Sea.

 

[Aseer]

Djibouti will be protected by France, but Somalia is the one in danger

Exactly

 

[Aseer]

Somalia is not on the Red Sea.

When you think about it they are in the "greater" red sea region and the Ethiopians are targeting Saylac or Berbera as a port to take over 2 cities that are very important cities rich in history and value it would be as easy as taking a lollipop from a little kid for them.

 

[RiceMuncher]

How are they gonna hold a port and secure that long road out of the Somali border? They'd lose 100% of their cargo in ambushes. Zero worries other than a somali clan selling out.

 

[Aseer]

How are they gonna hold a port and secure that long road out of the Somali border? They'd lose 100% of their cargo in ambushes. Zero worries other than a somali clan selling out.

trust me they are capable of doing such a thing and the Somalis have not much power to do much other than disrupt their supply routes that's about it as you said but they will be able to hold a secure route especially considering how they are mainly going for Saylac which isn't that far.

 

[Aseer]

@XuseenS why you laughing what's so funny?

 

[Avalanche]

@XuseenS why you laughing what's so funny?

Because nothing will happen, don't fall for this scaremongering

 

[Aseer]

Because nothing will happen, don't fall for this scaremongering

It will I was watching and studying this Abiy has been giving off too many RedFlags its going to happen soon and we are the easiest target Djibouti has French backing so they 2nd on the list and Eritrea can hold their own for a while and they are 3rd, and we are target number 1 because we got no way of resisting or any source of backing oooh and the fact that because of our useless politicians rash decisions we cant get support from the west the only ones we can turn toward is iran and we will either be another proxy or too useless to be backed.

 

[Bazed]

Ethiopia is always on the edge of civil war. If Abiy decides to go marching to war I can see the nation going up in flames. The only nation they can attack is Eritrea due to them once owning them and having rights to their ports. Djibouti is a fortress and Somalia has no access to the red sea that they want. Furthermore, Somalia is difficult situation and invading it will not only gain Ethiopia disapproval from the internal community but also could lead to cuts from their western backers.

I doubt that Ethiopia wants us. We're too much trouble. Eritrea on the other hand has been having issues with the TPLF and is often seen as a tyrannical dictatorship. If Ethiopia wanted it could march in with the help of the TPLF, it of course won't be easy and the war might even lead to the destruction of Ethiopia if lost.

 

[Kizaru]

Joining the EAC wasn't a bad decision if we're are to look at it from this perspective

 

[Aseer]

Ethiopia is always on the edge of civil war. If Abiy decides to go marching to war I can see the nation going up in flames. The only nation they can attack is Eritrea due to them once owning them and having rights to their ports. Djibouti is a fortress and Somalia has no access to the red sea that they want. Furthermore, Somalia is difficult situation and invading it will not only gain Ethiopia disapproval from the internal community but also could lead to cuts from their western backers.

I doubt that Ethiopia wants us. We're too much trouble. Eritrea on the other hand has been having issues with the TPLF and is often seen as a tyrannical dictatorship. If Ethiopia wanted it could march in with the help of the TPLF, it of course won't be easy and the war might even lead to the destruction of Ethiopia if lost.

Hmmm your right but we still are in proximity to it so they would opt to settle for it, but we may never know we will just see i just wish Somalia got its shit together and Somaliland stop being blind and ignorant and see that it's better to be unified against one threat rather than bend to their will and give up more shares of saylac and Berbera.

 

[Aseer]

Joining the EAC wasn't a bad decision if we're are to look at it from this perspective

Hell no.

 

[Internet Nomad]

Dw worry i been hearing rumours that back in 2016 somalis stole majority of the parts that were needed to make a nuke from a container ship and were able to reverse engineer it into a actual nuclear weapon.

If Ethiopia ever flexes their strength will hit them with it.

 

[repo]

When you think about it they are in the "greater" red sea region and the Ethiopians are targeting Saylac or Berbera as a port to take over 2 cities that are very important cities rich in history and value it would be as easy as taking a lollipop from a little kid for them.

He wants to use Afar and Tigray against Eritrea. Not create a long corridor through Somali territories. Main character syndrome is very prevalent among Somalis I speak of this in great length in my upcoming book: You ain't it.

 

[Bazed]

Hmmm your right but we still are in proximity to it so they would opt to settle for it, but we may never know we will just see i just wish Somalia got its shit together and Somaliland stop being blind and ignorant and see that it's better to be unified against one threat rather than bend to their will and give up more shares of saylac and Berbera.

I agree. The possibility of them attacking us is low in my eyes, but it's never zero. Somali politicians and clan leaders have failed to build bonds amongst the people in our nation. Saylac and Berbera won't be on the table for Ethiopia however, they can lease it but this'll mean paying Somalia. We also have to consider other players like the US, Turkey and China, all of which have vested interest in our ports.


I think fundamentally if Abiy is crazy enough to start a war he'll have more justification in attacking Eritrea. This'll still be bad for us cause Eritrea plays a counter balance to Ethiopia and they've be invested in making us stronger in order to box them in more. If this mad grab goes horribly wrong it could kick off a chain reaction that could make Ethiopia the modern day Yugoslavia.

Players in Ethiopia have their own interest. While Abiy had support from the Oromo he is disliked by Tigray and distrusted by Amharic people, Afar gain nothing because they already control port access to Djibouti. He could connect with Tigray by promising them control over the ports taken from Eritrea if they choose to fight for him. But if they marched to Somalia I don't know how willing Afars, Amhara and Tigray will be send their sons into Somalia.

 

[Aseer]

He wants to use Afar and Tigray against Eritrea. Not create a long corridor through Somali territories. Main character syndrome is very prevalent among Somalis I speak of this in great length in my upcoming book: You ain't it.

Damn bro why are you exposing us like that but ok we will see what happens when abiy enacts his master plan.

 

[Noble]

Eritrea are battle hardened I welcome this war it won't be an easy ride for Ethiopia

Ethiopia either regains its former coast and Danakil unites with Ethiopian Afars or It become more destabilised and weakened and can become a catalyst for Somali Galbeed Liberation win win either way
Sorry Eritrea

 

[Arkan]

Eritrea is the prime target and will always be it.

Eritrean military sources suggest the country is now bracing for a potential war as Ethiopia amasses troops near the Eritrean border.

Eritrean military sources suggest the country is now bracing for a potential war as Ethiopia amasses troops near the Eritrean border in Zalembessa—which is 100 miles from the capital, Asmara—and the Assab front, which includes the Assab port, which is 45 miles from the Ethiopian border and may be difficult for Eritrea to defend. Those areas recently witnessed heightened airplane activity and troop movements. Amid global attention on the U.S. election in 2020, Abiy went to war with the TPLF. There are concerns that he might target Eritrea now amid the world’s focus on Gaza.

If war between the two countries ensues, Ethiopia might focus its military actions on the Assab front, a region suitable for air raids and drone strikes and remote from the center of Eritrea. Eritrea could face logistical challenges reinforcing this area, possibly leading it to shift troops from 52 districts it occupies in Tigray. It is estimated that the Eritrean troops at present have placed nine divisions on border areas they occupy in Tigray totaling about 40,000 soldiers.

These divisions are reinforced with mechanized forces, which Eritrea heavily depends on. Eritrea claims it is deployed in areas awarded to it by the boundary commission. It is possible that Eritrea may attack Ethiopia and occupy more territories as a pre-emptive move. Just like in 1998, a small incident or a miscalculation by one of the sides may lead to full-scale war.

Meanwhile, Abiy is escalating his rhetoric. He was quoted as saying he would not be limited to reclaiming the port of Assab but would retake the entire territory of Eritrea. The military chief of staff of Ethiopia, in an assessment of the conflict within the Amhara region, has purportedly stated that it is necessary to classify Eritrea as an adversary. And the Oromia regional president’s statement that Irreecha, an Oromo festival observed near a water body, will be celebrated next on the banks of the Red Sea and Indian Ocean adds fuel to the fire.

The current trajectory suggests a probable collision course that could have devastating regional implications. The situation is fluid, and careful diplomacy by the African Union and the international community is crucial to prevent a catastrophic outcome. The last thing the Horn of Africa needs is another war.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/07/ethiopia-eritrea-war-tplf/