This is a response to @Macawisley's question to me.
So let us all start from the beginning,
Mudane HSM's visit to Ahmed Madobe:
HSM informed Madobe that for his total war on AS to work, operations must begin to liberate Middle Jubba, and Madobe must finally get if the kursi an create a JL led by someone else featuring all clans interests and to place someone loyal to him (HSM) on the throne.
In the aftermath of the President's visit, Madobe hurried himself to UAE and sold, bases n resources n bajuni islands. The UAE in a show of commitment sent a fleet of trucks to him as we saw.
On the other hand in Gedo, regional leaders had come together and started training an army to liberate Middle Jubba and also put together all resources to combine millitas, trained troops, regional defense troops and the ones promised to them by HSM. In addition HSM signed Ethiopia to work with Reer Gedo n provide logistics, men and supplies to them.
Ahmed Madobe seeing the regional leaders actually working together and seeing the liberation of Middle Jubba as a threat to his reign n his clan, he attempted to contact the Kenyan President Ruto but he declined stating he wants KDF troops out of Kismayo n back home as another point for his re-election in Kenyan politics. Ahmed Madobe usually had two foreign powers backing him so this time he headed to meet longtime enemy Ethiopia but was declined a meeting with Abiy Ahmed still fuming after AA guns were pointed at Ethiopian planes attempting to land in JL. So he visited his tol and attempted to persuade them. Had this been maybe pre Tigray war, this would've been doom for Reer Gedo but Abiy's centralization is in full swing and he didn't plan to let it go. Then the UAE stepped in to intervene for Madobe and Abiy told them he will reconsider. All this done behind HSM's back during his foreign trips and his busying with his PM's motion of impeachment. Now that this motion has failed it expected for him to visit Abiy and to tell him "I will not allow for my plan to go to waste and Middle Jubba will be liberated".
Reer Gedo seeing this were asked to come to Nairobi for a meeting they came, leaving Fartaag in Gedo to watch over preparations n Ahmed Bulle Gireed left in Ethiopia to continue courting Abiy n Ethiopia. It was his presence that denied Madobe a visit to Abiy. HSM who Ruto was attempting to make firends with and let him join EAC and reopen maritime dispute expelled Madobes ambassadors and said do your shenaginans in Xamar.
A deliberate attempt by Ruto for HSM to intervene in this and stop Madobe. With date of HSM's visit now pushed forward and his soon to be meeting with either Ethiopia or Kenya or Gedo, he is now committed to continuing operations in JL and will soon put a stop to this.
This is my view on recent events happening and it is vey much playing out in our favour.
So let us all start from the beginning,
Mudane HSM's visit to Ahmed Madobe:
HSM informed Madobe that for his total war on AS to work, operations must begin to liberate Middle Jubba, and Madobe must finally get if the kursi an create a JL led by someone else featuring all clans interests and to place someone loyal to him (HSM) on the throne.
In the aftermath of the President's visit, Madobe hurried himself to UAE and sold, bases n resources n bajuni islands. The UAE in a show of commitment sent a fleet of trucks to him as we saw.
On the other hand in Gedo, regional leaders had come together and started training an army to liberate Middle Jubba and also put together all resources to combine millitas, trained troops, regional defense troops and the ones promised to them by HSM. In addition HSM signed Ethiopia to work with Reer Gedo n provide logistics, men and supplies to them.
Ahmed Madobe seeing the regional leaders actually working together and seeing the liberation of Middle Jubba as a threat to his reign n his clan, he attempted to contact the Kenyan President Ruto but he declined stating he wants KDF troops out of Kismayo n back home as another point for his re-election in Kenyan politics. Ahmed Madobe usually had two foreign powers backing him so this time he headed to meet longtime enemy Ethiopia but was declined a meeting with Abiy Ahmed still fuming after AA guns were pointed at Ethiopian planes attempting to land in JL. So he visited his tol and attempted to persuade them. Had this been maybe pre Tigray war, this would've been doom for Reer Gedo but Abiy's centralization is in full swing and he didn't plan to let it go. Then the UAE stepped in to intervene for Madobe and Abiy told them he will reconsider. All this done behind HSM's back during his foreign trips and his busying with his PM's motion of impeachment. Now that this motion has failed it expected for him to visit Abiy and to tell him "I will not allow for my plan to go to waste and Middle Jubba will be liberated".
Reer Gedo seeing this were asked to come to Nairobi for a meeting they came, leaving Fartaag in Gedo to watch over preparations n Ahmed Bulle Gireed left in Ethiopia to continue courting Abiy n Ethiopia. It was his presence that denied Madobe a visit to Abiy. HSM who Ruto was attempting to make firends with and let him join EAC and reopen maritime dispute expelled Madobes ambassadors and said do your shenaginans in Xamar.
A deliberate attempt by Ruto for HSM to intervene in this and stop Madobe. With date of HSM's visit now pushed forward and his soon to be meeting with either Ethiopia or Kenya or Gedo, he is now committed to continuing operations in JL and will soon put a stop to this.
This is my view on recent events happening and it is vey much playing out in our favour.
Last edited:
, only for JL matters as well. We have something else cooking for the ones in GM/Galbeed, keep barking.
