How Will Somalia Military Federalize

[DR OSMAN]

It's a constitutional reality that all Somali regional forces must federalize according to the constitution but when the road-map will begin and end, plus the risks to such federalization hasn't been discussed. The benefits and disadvantages must be seriously discussed.

Benefits

1. Benefit wise, their is less conflict between different regional para-militaries and separate command structures, since they fall under the same command structure.
2. Creates some regional perception of a 'strong' army. But I suspect that's all just 'surface level image' advertisement.
3. Better response and coordination thru a central structure

Disadvantages

1. A potential single point of collapse since it's following in the spirit of centralization. Plus foreign and internal threats will know this.
2. Power abuses using the centralized army for political, clan, or even land expansion interest.
3. Internal threats like shabab will love a centralized army as everything is centrally contained so they can use corruption and intel to destroy it within itself
4. Lack of reconciliation will feed internal/external actors to break it within itself. Lack of strong system and rule of law and finalized constitution means our whole security falls down to the president of the day and his good will. Im not willing to risk every region security on a 5 year president with clan-personal interests in his heart.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I'll give u an example PSF vs NISA. Their is clear performance difference as shabab is very much stopped in it's track 99% of the time. Where-as NISA, it's performance with shabab is well known. Is it wise to unify PSF to NISA, knowing these facts and what that could mean in terms of PL stability? this problem is also in the military.

Shabab dares not fight our military conventionally due to it's strong might and quality and resorted to insurgency, is it wise to disband that for the federal forces who it doesn't fear and makes a mockery of and the security implication to flow into PL, it could even mean shabab will be emboldened now when it knows the whole nation security is centralized to dummy SFG and all the regions are open for harvesting and suffer the hamar effect.

I do not want federalization of the army as long as 5 year presidents and ministers are strong n powerful and rule of law and institutions are weak. I do not want HAG near my institutions, I know their performance already in mogadishu and south central. HAG is the problem and by dividing our nation, people will start to see the clans who are good and bad by their regions, but unifying it, we all fall together and I dont want my ppl to die with hawiye.

 

[DR OSMAN]

The other problem is regional BORDERS. Untill that is settled it's not wise any region hands power to a corrupted SFG who may expand borders using the national resources, ileen awoodi hal meel bay ku arursan tahay, this simply risky to all regions. So their are many issues currently that makes federalizing of the army just impossible. Plus separation of security allows for each security to be measured against themselves. It provides useful data who is strong n functioning and who is weak and dysfunctional ALONG CLAN LINES. Only failed clans prefer to merge to hide their dysfunction under the SOMALI name.

 

[Rationale]

It starts with fiscal federalism.

 

[FBIsomalia]

I'll give u an example PSF vs NISA. Their is clear performance difference as shabab is very much stopped in it's track 99% of the time. Where-as NISA, it's performance with shabab is well known. Is it wise to unify PSF to NISA, knowing these facts and what that could mean in terms of PL stability? this problem is also in the military.

Shabab dares not fight our military conventionally due to it's strong might and quality and resorted to insurgency, is it wise to disband that for the federal forces who it doesn't fear and makes a mockery of and the security implication to flow into PL, it could even mean shabab will be emboldened now when it knows the whole nation security is centralized to dummy SFG and all the regions are open for harvesting and suffer the hamar effect.

I do not want federalization of the army as long as 5 year presidents and ministers are strong n powerful and rule of law and institutions are weak. I do not want HAG near my institutions, I know their performance already in mogadishu and south central. HAG is the problem and by dividing our nation, people will start to see the clans who are good and bad by their regions, but unifying it, we all fall together and I dont want my ppl to die with hawiye.

HAG cant do nothing without Darood, they cant secure one village. Let them suffer why we have to safe their asses each time!!.

 

[Mr. Wabrii]

HAG cant do nothing without Darood, they cant secure one village. Let them suffer why we have to safe their asses each time!!.

Cant secure one village? Are you retarded?

The military is on the borders with Puntland, Even the CIA sent their little dogs to come help us " PSF CIA OWNED AND CONTROLED"

You think Puntland wants to help GL? They dont but too bad the CIA runs PSF not PUNTLAND

Im glad today we have Federal Army, All those troops that Formajoo wanted to protect himself with and capture Xamar will be sent to fight alshabaab in the front lines.

Those who refuse will be fired and sent back to their degaans.

 

[bidenkulaha]

It already is federalised. Hence why it’s called the federal army. Accompanied by the federal police. What you want is a localised army. That’s not happening.

You can have a local police force tho.

SNA will operate everywhere south of Galkayo in the meantime.

 

[FBIsomalia]

Cant secure one village? Are you retarded?

The military is on the borders with Puntland, Even the CIA sent their little dogs to come help us " PSF CIA OWNED AND CONTROLED"

You think Puntland wants to help GL? They dont but too bad the CIA runs PSF not PUNTLAND

Im glad today we have Federal Army, All those troops that Formajoo wanted to protect himself with and capture Xamar will be sent to fight alshabaab in the front lines.

Those who refuse will be fired and sent back to their degaans.

CIA control?.

We have good memory HAG kid, before two years Qorqor request army assistant to encounter Alkabab attack in south mudug, we sent PSF plus we give ammo with cars to HAG to protect their asses from Alkabaab. All that been shared in social media with videos.

Lets us goes on your lie, my question, why USA sent PSF not Danab unit from Dhuso city before two years to South mudug?.

Facts will stay that HAG kid, you call us and today MJ protect your ass in Hobyo iyo South mudug.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

I'll give u an example PSF vs NISA. Their is clear performance difference as shabab is very much stopped in it's track 99% of the time. Where-as NISA, it's performance with shabab is well known. Is it wise to unify PSF to NISA, knowing these facts and what that could mean in terms of PL stability? this problem is also in the military.

Shabab dares not fight our military conventionally due to it's strong might and quality and resorted to insurgency, is it wise to disband that for the federal forces who it doesn't fear and makes a mockery of and the security implication to flow into PL, it could even mean shabab will be emboldened now when it knows the whole nation security is centralized to dummy SFG and all the regions are open for harvesting and suffer the hamar effect.

I do not want federalization of the army as long as 5 year presidents and ministers are strong n powerful and rule of law and institutions are weak. I do not want HAG near my institutions, I know their performance already in mogadishu and south central. HAG is the problem and by dividing our nation, people will start to see the clans who are good and bad by their regions, but unifying it, we all fall together and I dont want my ppl to die with hawiye.

1 separate security forces
2 Separate Justice system
3 Separate Education
4 Separate Economy.



Corporation to be set at minimum possible. Anything more would be a disaster to have anything to do with the souties.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

It starts with fiscal federalism.

Can't really have fiscal federalism until Galmudug, Hiirshabelle and SWS get some revenue generating ability in the form of ports, airports or customs posts at the Ethiopian border.

It already is federalised. Hence why it’s called the federal army. Accompanied by the federal police. What you want is a localised army. That’s not happening.

You can have a local police force tho.

SNA will operate everywhere south of Galkayo in the meantime.

It is understandable that Hawiye feel too threatened by MJ to include us in the SNA. This makes sense from a security standpoint. If I were Hawiye I wouldn't want MJ to be in the SNA.

The problem is that the IC will be shifting more aid to the SNA as ATMIS is wound down. This foreign aid is given to the FGS, not to Hawiye as a clan. I have no problem with the FGS not signing up troops from Puntland, but we will demand to get our share in terms of money.

All that we care about is getting our share of the foreign aid.

 

[Rationale]

Can't really have fiscal federalism until Galmudug, Hiirshabelle and SWS get some revenue generating ability in the form of ports, airports or customs posts at the Ethiopian border.

That's not how fiscal federalism works. Every state chip in 20% of their revenue and FGS won't no longer be a Banaadir burden alone. Those states will get more aid to build ports and they will receive more federal funding until they stand on their own, that's how federalism works.

All that we care about is getting our share of the foreign aid.

All our debates come down to our disagreement on what your share should be. We see no reason why you should take more than BRA and other FMS.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

That's not how fiscal federalism works. Every state chip in 20% of their revenue and FGS won't no longer be a Banaadir burden alone. Those states will get more aid to build ports and they will receive more federal funding until they stand on their own, that's how federalism works.

The return from that to Puntland would be negative.
We don't want to subsidize other federal states.
Just pass a law prohibiting the taxation of Banadir for use outside of Banadir.

I have no problem having Puntland fund the 4 exclusive powers delegated to the FGS:

1. Foreign Affairs
2. National Defense
3. Citizenship and Immigration
4. Monetary Policy

But this would require an agreement from the federal government (i.e Hawiye) that there will be no clan based bias in the hiring of staff relevant to these powers.

All our debates come down to our disagreement on what your share should be. We see no reason why you should take more than BRA and other FMS.

Puntland should receive more of the foreign aid because Puntland has more people than Galmudug and Hiirshabelle put together. You can disagree with this, and that is why we need a biometric census. In the meantime, we can base it on the number of xildhibaans coming from each federal state.

 

[Rationale]

The return from that to Puntland would be negative

Well that is one way to put it.

We don't want to subsidize other federal states.
Just pass a law prohibiting the taxation of Banadir for use outside of Banadir.

We can't have any agreements, until such law has been passed. My whole disagreement with JL and PL rises from our taxes funding institutions that will in the long run benefit everyone.

I have no problem having Puntland fund the 4 exclusive powers delegated to the FGS:

1. Foreign Affairs
2. National Defense
3. Citizenship and Immigration
4. Monetary Policy

Its a good proposal, and a step in the right direction. Now who will fund the parliament? Who will fund Somalia Development Bank and etc.

But this would require an agreement from the federal government (i.e Hawiye) that there will be no clan based bias in the hiring of staff relevant to these powers.

If funding comes from everyone equally. It would be more than unfair to hire with bias.

Puntland should receive more of the foreign aid because Puntland has more people than Galmudug and Hiirshabelle put together. You can disagree with this, and that is why we need a biometric census. In the meantime, we can base it on the number of xildhibaans coming from each federal state.

I most certainly disagree with PL having more people than HS+GM, and Im sure biometric census would disprove this notion you have.

And also no way will we share aid monry based on parliamentary seats, Xamar which has the most population will receive least, while being the sole financial contributor. Terrible suggestion, doesn't solve any of our problems.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Well that is one way to put it.

We can't have any agreements, until such law has been passed. My whole disagreement with JL and PL rises from our taxes funding institutions that will in the long run benefit everyone.

Your disagreement is not with PL/JL but is with Hawiye politicinans in the FGS who like having control over the finances of Bnadir with no local accountability. The Hawiye politicians in the FGS are happy that Banadir receives only 15% of the the taxes collected within its borders. That means they control 85% of Banadir's revenues as a slush fund.

It is not in the interest of PL/JL to build institutions in Banadir outside of the 4 functions, that would give the FGS too much leverage. Health, education, transportation, planning, etc... I want all of that to remain at the FMS level. It is less prone to corruption and each FMS can tailor policy for its people.

Its a good proposal, and a step in the right direction. Now who will fund the parliament? Who will fund Somalia Development Bank and etc.

Yes to funding parliament, no to funding a development bank. That is better left to the FMS or private banks. Just wire the FMS their share of development aid.

And also no way will we share aid money based on parliamentary seats, Xamar which has the most population will receive least, while being the sole financial contributor. Terrible suggestion, doesn't solve any of our problems.

Hawiye clans can move their seats to Xamar so it can have more funding. A biometric census is unlikely to be held this decade.

 

[Rationale]

Your disagreement is not with PL/JL but is with Hawiye politicinans in the FGS who like having control over the finances of Bnadir with no local accountability. The Hawiye politicians in the FGS are happy that Banadir receives only 15% of the the taxes collected within its borders. That means they control 85% of Banadir's revenues as a slush fund.

I know who are against Banaadirs statehood, I know who debate about the status of the "Capital". I know who are refusing to finish the constitution. Hawiye politicians have stood in the podium many times demanding the sensible way forward but to no avail.

FGS highest organ is a parliament shared on 4.5. It is not run by our politicians. Hawiye are dealt a bad hand. Your politicians have many times been vocal opposers of Banaadir state. It is a rational move from your camp to oppose independent Banaadir and that is fine. Now we will do the next best thing, and that is demanding return on our investments, in the form of strong Federal government. Hopefully your politicians will realise, before it is too late, that there are many ways to undermine eachother.

It is not in the interest of PL/JL to build institutions in Banadir outside of the 4 functions, that would give the FGS too much leverage. Health, education, transportation, planning, etc... I want all of that to remain at the FMS level. It is less prone to corruption and each FMS can tailor policy for its people.

Federal government is literally meant to transcend beyond federal member state interests and build critical national infrastructure that connects and integrates the FMS.

Weak Federal government is achieved through concensus(it starts with separating FGS and BRA), strong Federal government only needs the support of plurality not even majority.

Yes to funding parliament, no to funding a development bank. That is better left to the FMS or private banks. Just wire the FMS their share of development aid.

I agree on leaving it to private banks.

Hawiye clans can move their seats to Xamar so it can have more funding. A biometric census is unlikely to be held this decade.

That was literally barred by the parliament when Mudulood wanted to move 60% of their seats to Xamar. Since Parliamentary seats are shared on 4.5 why won't skip the middle man and share aid on 4.5?