You forgot Saudi and Egypt from this equation and their positions, and both are US allies. Saudi back then were against your recognization (Egypt as well but their reasons are obvious) because they didn’t want Ethiopia and their handlers to further expand in the gulf and the red sea. I don’t know if their position had changed now but they did tell Eritrea few years ago to close the base of one of their competitors (I think it had to do with some military reasons in Yemen and them financing an opposing faction there not sure if that’s true tho)
the other thing is that abiy’s postion is not yet clear whether he’s pro-US or not, he recently joined BRICS, which has the two most nations America hates: Russia and China. (Saudi is part of BRICS too and they are trying to exit from the US hegemony, that’s why I said Saudi position is unclear)
So it all depends on those countries and how will they play their cards.