Somali political elite? Dont put your hopes in them. Waa calool u shaqeestiyaal intooda badan. The only force that can be a viable opposition to AS in the South is the clans.This whole gov is unnatural. If anything the last twenty years has just put the civil war on a long standby without a clear winner(which without outside intervention wouldve been the ICU)
Bro the situation isnt looking good. If America and the West do completely stop funding the gov, and Amisom leave then expect either a swift power grab by AS or another descent into a mass civil war.
1) Scenario 1 - The West completely pulls out abruptly, all foreign forces and officials leave , with no financial support or military support for the gov= Complete collapse of the fgs without a shadow of a doubt and a mass exodus of all dual citizens politicians. And the result of this imo will end up with AS vs big Clans in a recommencement of the civil war.
For example, if there is a power vacuum, i dont think it will be easy for AS to reestablish power in southern Somalia as many think,
First they have to deal with 4 fronts in the South
1)Abgaal. If they enter Xamar for example, you have Abgaal generals like Cabdulla Sinay or influential leaders like Muuse Suudi who command large forces of Abgaal soldiers who can put up a resistance. AS will need to placate Abgaal, and make sure they get Abgaal support in order to set off the possible resistance of Abgaal generals or leaders of influence. Abgaal will need to be given leadership role just like how the ICU appointed Sheikh Shariif to get Abgaal support.
2)HG - If they deal with Xamar, then AS will have to set its eyes on Galmudug. The Sufis in Galmudug will pick up arms again and it will be a difficult fight for AS to control Galmudug without a clear military victory against the Sufis.
3) Xawadle- Can also make life difficult by making an alliance with their neighbours HG Sufis
4)Axmed Madobe in Kismayo with his Loyal forces & most likely getting support from Puntland.
And then also the high probability of Somaliland and Puntland getting full independence, so say goodbye to the idea of Somalia as one State. AS will have their work cut out imo, but it depends on how they play their cards. AS have a support base made up of all clans in the south. HG in Xamar are very itixaad and were pro ICU and AS in its early days, same goes for Muursade, Raxanweyn, Gaaljecel, Abgaal in Shabelle Dhexe/hoose, Ogadeen and Marexaan also. So they have the option of sending different AS leaders to their respective clans/regions in order to get them on board.
2) Scenario 2 - Trumps begins peace talks with AS in Qatar. AS will have to make concessions, distancing themselves from AQ and make agreements to follow international law and the global system. I.e similar to the Taliban, that Somalia wont be a base for other terror groups, that they wont attack western interests or their neighbours Ethiopia and Kenya.
If they accept such terms, then imo it would soften their hardline approach and make them realise that they have to work within the global system. And in turn make them realise they cant use brute force or fear to govern, but that diplomacy and level headed governance is needed. They would gain legitimacy, and thus make It easier for them to rule the south and take the fight out of opposition forces.
I think either way, in the end AS will face opposition, collapse and be replaced with a more inclusive setup like the ICU that the society as a whole built together. Or it will evolve and become a less militant version of what it currently is, being tamed by the politics of governing and the clan systems in the Somalia.
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