حسن شيخ محمود
ورحمتي وسعت كل شيء
Somalia must learn to stand alone | By Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
In March 1977, Ethiopia and Somalia edged toward war over the region of Ogaden, which both claimed. Cuba’s revolutionary President Fidel Castro made a desperate dash to the Horn of Africa with a bold plan to keep the peace: with the backing of the Soviet Union, he proposed to combine Ethiopia, Somalia, South Yemen, and the soon-to-be-independent French Territory of the Afars and the Issas (now Djibouti) into a Marxist-Leninist superstate that would control the Red Sea and the all-important entrance to the Suez Canal. Not only would the merger resolve the long-standing rivalry between Ethiopia and Somalia, it would unleash the region’s economic potential. Even more important to the Kremlin, it would consolidate recent communist gains and make the Soviets the dominant external power in the Horn of Africa.
Castro’s shuttle diplomacy failed to win support from regional leaders, most notably Somali military leader Siad Barre, and soon Somalia and Ethiopia were locked in a vicious war. Yet the idea of an integrated Horn of Africa never died. More than four decades after the Ogaden War, the goal of greater political and economic integration lives on—particularly in Ethiopia, the regional hegemon, which is landlocked and depends on its neighbors for access to the sea. Regional organizations such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development have also sought to foster integration, as has the United States, which sees deeper trade ties and political cooperation as bulwarks against instability and extremism.
Since he came to power in 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has accelerated the regional integration project. He has forged closer ties with Somalia and with Ethiopia’s erstwhile archenemy Eritrea, even signing a tripartite agreement with the leaders of both countries that established a framework for political, economic, and security cooperation. More ominous, Abiy has publicly suggested that economic integration could be a prelude to political integration and ultimately to a single unified government and military in the Horn of Africa.
Efforts at political integration that come at the expense of sovereignty are bound to provoke conflict and end in failure. But even economic integration efforts that should in times of peace and stability benefit all parties could backfire under the current conditions. In theory, the free movement of people and goods between Ethiopia and Somalia should ease historical tensions, strengthen economic ties, and foster shared growth and prosperity. But in practice, allowing such movement could deepen the mutual suspicion and chronic insecurity that have crippled Somalia’s democratic development.
Simply put, neither Ethiopia nor Somalia is ready for deeper integration. Ethiopia is sliding toward instability and preoccupied with both internal ethnic conflicts and border disputes with Somalia and Eritrea. Somalia, for its part, is too politically fragmented, fragile, and imperiled by extremists to benefit much from regional integration right now. And because Somalia’s current leaders have embraced Ethiopia’s integration agenda without much input from civil society or the public, further implementing that agenda could deepen divisions rather than heal them. Before seeking greater interdependence with its neighbors, therefore, Somalia’s government should focus on turning the tide against the extremist insurgent group al Shabab, strengthening weak and divided governance structures at home, and building on the democratic gains that have been made over the last 20 years.
In March 1977, Ethiopia and Somalia edged toward war over the region of Ogaden, which both claimed. Cuba’s revolutionary President Fidel Castro made a desperate dash to the Horn of Africa with a bold plan to keep the peace: with the backing of the Soviet Union, he proposed to combine Ethiopia, Somalia, South Yemen, and the soon-to-be-independent French Territory of the Afars and the Issas (now Djibouti) into a Marxist-Leninist superstate that would control the Red Sea and the all-important entrance to the Suez Canal. Not only would the merger resolve the long-standing rivalry between Ethiopia and Somalia, it would unleash the region’s economic potential. Even more important to the Kremlin, it would consolidate recent communist gains and make the Soviets the dominant external power in the Horn of Africa.
Castro’s shuttle diplomacy failed to win support from regional leaders, most notably Somali military leader Siad Barre, and soon Somalia and Ethiopia were locked in a vicious war. Yet the idea of an integrated Horn of Africa never died. More than four decades after the Ogaden War, the goal of greater political and economic integration lives on—particularly in Ethiopia, the regional hegemon, which is landlocked and depends on its neighbors for access to the sea. Regional organizations such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development have also sought to foster integration, as has the United States, which sees deeper trade ties and political cooperation as bulwarks against instability and extremism.
Since he came to power in 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has accelerated the regional integration project. He has forged closer ties with Somalia and with Ethiopia’s erstwhile archenemy Eritrea, even signing a tripartite agreement with the leaders of both countries that established a framework for political, economic, and security cooperation. More ominous, Abiy has publicly suggested that economic integration could be a prelude to political integration and ultimately to a single unified government and military in the Horn of Africa.
Efforts at political integration that come at the expense of sovereignty are bound to provoke conflict and end in failure. But even economic integration efforts that should in times of peace and stability benefit all parties could backfire under the current conditions. In theory, the free movement of people and goods between Ethiopia and Somalia should ease historical tensions, strengthen economic ties, and foster shared growth and prosperity. But in practice, allowing such movement could deepen the mutual suspicion and chronic insecurity that have crippled Somalia’s democratic development.
Simply put, neither Ethiopia nor Somalia is ready for deeper integration. Ethiopia is sliding toward instability and preoccupied with both internal ethnic conflicts and border disputes with Somalia and Eritrea. Somalia, for its part, is too politically fragmented, fragile, and imperiled by extremists to benefit much from regional integration right now. And because Somalia’s current leaders have embraced Ethiopia’s integration agenda without much input from civil society or the public, further implementing that agenda could deepen divisions rather than heal them. Before seeking greater interdependence with its neighbors, therefore, Somalia’s government should focus on turning the tide against the extremist insurgent group al Shabab, strengthening weak and divided governance structures at home, and building on the democratic gains that have been made over the last 20 years.
