hassan sheikh 2016 vs Hassan sheikh 2022

[Bowda-dheer]

2016 Hassan sheikh was anti federalism and believed anything south of galkacyo should be militarily controlled from xamar
- two main fronts were kismaayo and Janaale-marka with some instigations in galkacyo.
-lost the kismaayo front militarily.
-ended the janaale-marka with peace talks
-implemented the federal states in his second half of his term.
-liberated a lot of territory from the qawariijta

Hassan sheikh 2022 is strengthening his base ( hg abgaal) so far.
-he’s putting the Hawiye clans to work against qawaarij
-land lost by the previous government around Mogadishu shabele hiiraan is regained.
-added new actors to villa somalia ( OG pm) that will prevent Hawiye vs daarood in the south.
- he’s preparing to place loyal or somewhat an Allie in KGS aka baydhabo.
-Hirshabele will go back to the gentlemen agreement between mudulood and xawaadle
-jubaland will have a new president from madoobe’s inner circle.
-galmudug will get a new president from
Damjadid

Things could change with in the coming year because a lot of state elections will take place and in somali politics things could change with a blink of an eye.

 

[InaShaqalle]

The way HSM can bring Jubaland under the FGS's control will be different to how he'll have the FGS control KG, GM or HS states.

Ahmed Madobe, the FGS, Kenya and influential Ogaden clan figures will come to an agreement which will see Jubaland be ruled by Xamar in exchange for Somalia being credibly on the way to becoming part of the East African Federation

 

[Bowda-dheer]

The way HSM can bring Jubaland under the FGS's control will be different to how he'll have the FGS control KG, GM or HS states.

Ahmed Madobe, the FGS, Kenya and influential Ogaden clan figures will come to an agreement which will see Jubaland be ruled by Xamar in exchange for Somalia being credibly on the way to becoming part of the East African Federation

Troops from Mogadishu have more chance of controlling gedo than kismaayo which they have dine with farmaajo. juba land’s weakest spot right now is gedo since middle juba is not in their hands. Once middle juba is liberated power sharing will change from Jubada hoose - gedo dominated government to jubada hoose- jubada dhexe dominated one. You’ll see this once middle juba is liberated by jubaland.

About Somalia joining the EAC I don’t see it for the foreseeable future. Kenya is one of the most heavily taxed economies in Africa currently sugar is cheap
In parts of Kenya due to somali sugar imagine a free open border ? Life will be very good for the average Kenyan but the elite will not like that.