Gobolists,
Aside from what’s happening between Puntland and Somaliland, every other Gobol is watching this very carefully.
My question to Reer Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, SWS and Jubbaland is what will happen in the next 24 months when Puntland stops laying claim to Sool and Sanaag on behalf of the central government and Sool and Sanaag see your progress as an opportunity to join the federal republic of Somalia.
Hold that thought and let’s get into some predictions from a gobolists point of view, because his conflict is far from over.
When Abdullahi Yusuf left Laascaanood after capturing and securing the region, he took his forces to Somalia to help usher in what you have today: The Federal System. When that happened there was nobody to defend the captured region, and SL took the opportunity to cease the region back when Abdullahi Yusufs’ key military assets where deployed to Xamaar.
After losing the poorly defended territory, the status quo was maintained between PL and SL with a very dark cloud above the political arena in the region—until January 2018.
In 2018, two new threats have taken place in SL that haven’t happened in the past 10-15 years: SL interclan uprisings and the maturing of Somali Gobols within Somalia.
These two factors alone will dictate the predictions of the region in the next 24months.
Here are my predictions from a gobolist point of view on why Sool and Sanaag might be holding Somali reconciliation efforts hostage.
Prediction one:
Puntland officially recognizes the British boundary of Somaliland and Khatuumo. PL focuses on building a relationship with SL based on security and mutual economic interests.
Outcome:
Khatumo ignites tention with SL, who has finally come into agreement with her border dispute and uses the opportunity to declare independence and allegence with Xamaar. Now we are back to square one and this time the conflict is between KS and SFG vs Somaliland, with Puntland maintaining a neutrality and step in as a mediator of both parties.
Prediction two:
SL interclan conflicts will increase and Khatumo will use it as an opportunity to declare independence. As gobols throughout Somalia gain stability and increase political maturity and development; the Sool and Sanaag region will admire their success and wish to emulate them in their region.
Outcome:
Benadir State is recognized to draw support for a third Hawiye State that brings Abgaal into the negotiations with Khatumo to recognize her and usher in a third Darood state within the SFG. As other gobolists support the these two new states, pressure will rise in Somaliland, as the likelyhood of recognition is extinguished. This will be a fatal blow to recognition and likely blow into a full fledged war between Somalia and SL.
Prediction Three:
SL continues its marginalization of non-Isaaq tribes. Tensions peak and Wadaniland declare independence from Somaliland. With the threat of Khatumo and Wadaniland declaring independence from SL, the federal army of Somalia will move its military assets to Bosasso and Garowe to insure the peaceful handover of the two new states into the SFG.
Outcome:
UAE withdrawals plans to build a military base in SL. Talks of opening the Berbera base to Russians gets the global attention SL needs.
The Russian military base is the final leverage SL has to get independence. As America and Europe see this as a threat. The British give a nod to the commonwealth countries to expediate the recognition of SL.
Allah knows best,
True gobolists want peace and prosperity for Somalia’s regions and states from Djibouti to Ras Kamboni without foreign influence. If the people of Sool and Sanaag declare once and for all their alligence to SL (without ever flipflopping and double dipping)— We the gobolists must wash our hands from dragging each other down and finally give Somaliland her Icitraf and the celebration and handover in the very place the conflict was avoided—Tuqarak.
Aside from what’s happening between Puntland and Somaliland, every other Gobol is watching this very carefully.
My question to Reer Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, SWS and Jubbaland is what will happen in the next 24 months when Puntland stops laying claim to Sool and Sanaag on behalf of the central government and Sool and Sanaag see your progress as an opportunity to join the federal republic of Somalia.
Hold that thought and let’s get into some predictions from a gobolists point of view, because his conflict is far from over.
When Abdullahi Yusuf left Laascaanood after capturing and securing the region, he took his forces to Somalia to help usher in what you have today: The Federal System. When that happened there was nobody to defend the captured region, and SL took the opportunity to cease the region back when Abdullahi Yusufs’ key military assets where deployed to Xamaar.
After losing the poorly defended territory, the status quo was maintained between PL and SL with a very dark cloud above the political arena in the region—until January 2018.
In 2018, two new threats have taken place in SL that haven’t happened in the past 10-15 years: SL interclan uprisings and the maturing of Somali Gobols within Somalia.
These two factors alone will dictate the predictions of the region in the next 24months.
Here are my predictions from a gobolist point of view on why Sool and Sanaag might be holding Somali reconciliation efforts hostage.
Prediction one:
Puntland officially recognizes the British boundary of Somaliland and Khatuumo. PL focuses on building a relationship with SL based on security and mutual economic interests.
Outcome:
Khatumo ignites tention with SL, who has finally come into agreement with her border dispute and uses the opportunity to declare independence and allegence with Xamaar. Now we are back to square one and this time the conflict is between KS and SFG vs Somaliland, with Puntland maintaining a neutrality and step in as a mediator of both parties.
Prediction two:
SL interclan conflicts will increase and Khatumo will use it as an opportunity to declare independence. As gobols throughout Somalia gain stability and increase political maturity and development; the Sool and Sanaag region will admire their success and wish to emulate them in their region.
Outcome:
Benadir State is recognized to draw support for a third Hawiye State that brings Abgaal into the negotiations with Khatumo to recognize her and usher in a third Darood state within the SFG. As other gobolists support the these two new states, pressure will rise in Somaliland, as the likelyhood of recognition is extinguished. This will be a fatal blow to recognition and likely blow into a full fledged war between Somalia and SL.
Prediction Three:
SL continues its marginalization of non-Isaaq tribes. Tensions peak and Wadaniland declare independence from Somaliland. With the threat of Khatumo and Wadaniland declaring independence from SL, the federal army of Somalia will move its military assets to Bosasso and Garowe to insure the peaceful handover of the two new states into the SFG.
Outcome:
UAE withdrawals plans to build a military base in SL. Talks of opening the Berbera base to Russians gets the global attention SL needs.
The Russian military base is the final leverage SL has to get independence. As America and Europe see this as a threat. The British give a nod to the commonwealth countries to expediate the recognition of SL.
Allah knows best,
True gobolists want peace and prosperity for Somalia’s regions and states from Djibouti to Ras Kamboni without foreign influence. If the people of Sool and Sanaag declare once and for all their alligence to SL (without ever flipflopping and double dipping)— We the gobolists must wash our hands from dragging each other down and finally give Somaliland her Icitraf and the celebration and handover in the very place the conflict was avoided—Tuqarak.
