Former Cia analyst says that Somalia will forever be in civil war

[Hamrawi]

 

[Hamrawi]

6:34 Thats where he talks about Somalia. Keypoints FGS cannot defeat AS. AS is stronger than FGS even with support from the world. War in Somalia is light bucks for Yanks compared to Afghanistan. Can be maintained easily. Stalemate in Somalia is US interest

 

[SpaceyCadet]

does he talk about why it is in the interest of ?

 

[Heavy Mountains]

6:34 Thats where he talks about Somalia. Keypoints FGS cannot defeat AS. AS is stronger than FGS even with support from the world. War in Somalia is light bucks for Yanks compared to Afghanistan. Can be maintained easily. Stalemate in Somalia is US interest

That’s not exactly what he said.

His point was that Somalia gets enough support just to stop AS from winning, but not enough for the FGS to defeat them.

 

[Jaffar]

Alshabaab cannot be defecter by amisom I made this calculation back in 2014

 

[Hamrawi]

That’s not exactly what he said.

His point was that Somalia gets enough support just to stop AS from winning, but not enough for the FGS to defeat them.

This is an cope reply. Throwing more money at black pit wont fix the problems

 

[Hamrawi]

Alshabaab cannot be defecter by amisom I made this calculation back in 2014

Amisom was waste of time. And continues to be. Somalias insecurity cannot be fixed by foreigners. Neither Africom nor Amisom

 

[Jaffar]

Yes that is true the only way is if a nationalistic somali takes over alshabaab and sfg and shabaab make Peace and. Form a joint govt Somalia will be back but how can one reconcile these two elements this wil be difficult. If shabaab drops international agenda and takfiri ways there can be A way

 

[Heavy Mountains]

This is an cope reply. Throwing more money at black pit wont fix the problems

Watch the video again and pay closer attention this time.

 

[Zak12]

While Al-Shabab is a nuissance, they are much weaker than they were over a decade ago.

Tbh I dislike framing this as a "civil war" because Somalia's current conflict is really more of an insurgency, no different to what Egypt had back in the 2010s.

 

[AbrahamFreedom]

True, Somalis will always be in war. They have been at war since the beginning of their time. War is their identity. Also Shabab will take over Somalia, up until Zeila, when foreigners stop meddling in Somali affairs. Puntland and Somaliland are also no match for Al Shabab; the people of those places heavily supported ICU, especially Osman Mohamuud and especially Habar Jeclo/Habar Younis. Ali Salabaan also support Islamic State.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Alshabab can be defeated quite easily if Somalis were to come to an agreement on federalism, the constitution and elections. The combined military power of a clan like Hawiye is maybe 10x that of Alshabab. That is how powerful Somali clans are and that is how weak Alshabab are in an all out conflict.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

A tactically strong decision, the FGS cannot be armed to the point it becomes the sole centre of power/government, since that would mean 91 all over again, yet it shouldnt be weakened to the point it succumbs to an AS takeover. I believe there is communication between the FGS and AS to keep the fighting and killing to a minimum, which ultimately serves the greater good.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

And it also helps that AS has moderated its position on bombings and suicide attacks which cause great harm to the civilian populous and serve to sour public opinion towards it.

 

[Garaad Awal]

True, Somalis will always be in war. They have been at war since the beginning of their time. War is their identity. Also Shabab will take over Somalia, up until Zeila, when foreigners stop meddling in Somali affairs. Puntland and Somaliland are also no match for Al Shabab; the people of those places heavily supported ICU, especially Osman Mohamuud and especially Habar Jeclo/Habar Younis. Ali Salabaan also support Islamic State.

Somaliland ain’t apart of that circus. Blue Flag Zoo state isn’t coming back no matter how much the westerners pump money and African troops into it