Quick thread.
One of the major differences between Somalia and Afghanistan is the number of international partners Somalia has vs Afghanistan.
Afghanistan's major partner was always the US and it needed the US to maintain its military, economy, build capacity in its government but also very importantly, the US played a major role in preventing the politcal collapse of the Afghan government and it did this more than once. Here's some relevant passages from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan's reconstruction report on why the Afghan goverenment collapsed:
Somalia is unlike Afghanistan in that it has a long list of international partners. This is good because it means that a military collapse like Afghanistan is less likely but it's bad because it also means no one country or group (UK, US, UN) has sufficient leverage over the FGS to prevent political collapse by brokering deals. While the international partners are unified right now behind HSM you can imagine in the case of a fruadelent election that the international partners become split about what to do and who to support. The decisions about Afghanistan's government always rested with the US president and that's was a real strength looking back at it.
One of the major differences between Somalia and Afghanistan is the number of international partners Somalia has vs Afghanistan.
Afghanistan's major partner was always the US and it needed the US to maintain its military, economy, build capacity in its government but also very importantly, the US played a major role in preventing the politcal collapse of the Afghan government and it did this more than once. Here's some relevant passages from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan's reconstruction report on why the Afghan goverenment collapsed:
- In 2004, Afghanistan held its first democratic presidential election, which Karzai won, notwithstanding allegations from his opponents that the election result was fraudulent.
- During Karzai’s presidency, government corruption was a significant issue. In 2009, General Stanley McChrystal summarized the problem by saying that Afghans were “frustrated and weary,” and that “progress [was] hindered by the dual threat of a resilient insurgency and a crisis of confidence in the government and the international coalition.” Election fraud allegations undermined the legitimacy of the government as well. Karzai won a second term that same year, but the results were again disputed.
- The September 2014 election of Ashraf Ghani did not increase public confidence in the electoral process: Abdullah Abdullah, the runner-up, challenged the results and threw the government into crisis. A government collapse was averted only by last-minute negotiations led by then-Secretary of State John Kerry and personal intervention by President Barack Obama.
- Voter turnout had trended downward since Afghanistan’s first election in 2004, when an estimated 68 percent of eligible voters showed up to the polls. By the 2019 presidential election, eligible voter turnout was estimated at just under 10 percent. When Ghani was again declared the winner that year, Abdullah again disputed the results. A second power-sharing arrangement brokered by the United States again narrowly averted the prospect of a government collapse.
Somalia is unlike Afghanistan in that it has a long list of international partners. This is good because it means that a military collapse like Afghanistan is less likely but it's bad because it also means no one country or group (UK, US, UN) has sufficient leverage over the FGS to prevent political collapse by brokering deals. While the international partners are unified right now behind HSM you can imagine in the case of a fruadelent election that the international partners become split about what to do and who to support. The decisions about Afghanistan's government always rested with the US president and that's was a real strength looking back at it.
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