Ethiopia: Tigray Region to hold general elections in August in an affront to Abiy's leadership

[AbdiGeedi]

In an open disobedience to the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Tigrays will hold general elections in August that were postponed indefinitely by Abiy. Tigrays do not recognize the Oromo leadership of Ethiopia. Habesha chauvinism is tearing apart Ethiopia. The country might disintegrate.

Opinion: Ethiopia is on the brink of failure – DW – 06/17/2020

Delayed elections and ethnic tensions are undermining Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reform agenda. But the postponed polls could also be a chance for Ethiopia, says DW's Ludger Schadomsky.

www.dw.com

Crisis looms in Ethiopia as elections are postponed – DW – 06/16/2020

Ethiopia's government has postponed elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Discontent with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is growing. Opposition parties feel excluded from the reform process. Even his supporters are unhappy.

www.dw.com

 

[AbdiGeedi]

@xabashi

1) What makes Ethiopia's diverse ethnic groups to stick together as a country? What is the secret sauce?

2) Why has Eritrea chosen to split?

3) Your prognosis of Ethiopia's future. Collapse?

 

[Invader]

@xabashi

1) What makes Ethiopia's diverse ethnic groups to stick together as a country? What is the secret sauce?

2) Why has Eritrea chosen to split?

3) Your prognosis of Ethiopia's future. Collapse?

Eritrea just like Somalia was colonised

So the Italians shaped the Eritreans views in politics.

thus deepening the schism between these people.

It's basically Somaliland and Somalia but Somaliland hasn't won independence yet.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

You know what is odd?

Usually British colonies fare better among others. In the slave Horn of Africa everything is upside down. It's French Djibouti that got ahead with Italian Somalia being the second in line.

 

[xabashi]

@xabashi

1) What makes Ethiopia's diverse ethnic groups to stick together as a country? What is the secret sauce?

2) Why has Eritrea chosen to split?

3) Your prognosis of Ethiopia's future. Collapse?

Yes, TPLF is scared to face the first true free and fair election in its existence and is now says it is in the process of holding elections in Tigray but makes it open whether it will ask the federal election board to do the job or wants to create its own election board. All genuine tigrean opposition parties that operate in Tigray (except the 2 or 3 fake opposition parties that have been established recently by TPLF) already boycotted the TPLF conducted fake election. Currently TPLF is facing many uprisings in Tigray by the new youth movement called fenkel that is trying to free Tigray from TPLF and it seems TPLF is scared to death to face a real election for the first time. Tbh, I am not even sure if TPLF really means it or this is just for a PR stunt. PM already said if such action materialize, the federal government will be forced to take harsh measures. Tigray, as a highly dependant region on the federal budget, I am not really sure if TPLF is ready to risk so much. It looks to me the uprising in Tigray by the youth will intensify in the coming months. TPLF is sensing the end is near and they have to do some crazy sh!t to survive or they are done soon.

Ok, now to your questions
1) I think I would say it is the ordinary people. You have to understand that the ordinary people, especially in towns and cities have intermingled so much and the majority of them don't see anything negative happen to Ethiopia. This is true for ordinary Tigreans in the north to the ordinary Oromos and southerners in the south. The second reason is that almost all elites from all ethnic groups except very few agree they do better inside the state of Ethiopia than become disintegrate. They all are aware the cost of disintegration and stateless status so on one is really seriously pushing for disintegration knowing we all will be losing. The last main reason is the federal institutions, especially the army. They are all composed of different ethnic groups but work together as Ethiopians to safeguard and serve the state. In the last crises, the federal institutions have shown that they act mostly neutral without siding for any ethnic group. From all institutions, they are seen by the majority of Ethiopians as mostly not ethnic biased institutions, especially the army.

2) Eritrea after italian colonization built a separate identity from its southern cousins but in my view the decisive step for their independence was the mistake of Haile Selassie to dissolve the federation and even worst of all is the atrocities committed by the derg regime and its complete political stupidity. After living as separate countries for decades now, I think most young Ethiopians don't have close attachment with Eritrea anymore and see it just as a neighbouring country from which refugees come to Ethiopia.

3) I think a collapse is not gonna happen soon since we still have a functioning federal state and a strong army and most of all a leadership that is workaholic and have a clear vision for the coming decades. The government is also getting huge financial support from the western institutions like the IMF and World Bank that it can implement its plan of economic development. Yes, there are issues with TPLF and there are some conflicts in western Oromia but in my view none of these will be very serious to endanger the state let alone to bring the country to collapse.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

TPLF are armed to teeth.

They are one of the geesi breeds in Ethiopia after Somalis and Afars.

Amhara and oromo are the largest but Allah did not give them a heart they are cowards.

Imagine somalis with only AK 47 would wipe out entire Ethiopian battalion in the Ogaden.

Tigray and Eritreans lost more than 10K fighting in the Ogafen against Alitihad back in the days.

But Tigray and Eritrea militia would send women to fight Oromos.


Dont be fooled by the hype of the media.It was the West that forced TPLF to step down from power not the machete wielding Oromos.

Ethiopia has alot of problems the west will not allow it to collapse but will teach them a valuable lesson.War is inevitable so that all Chinese infrastructure is destroyed in Ethiopia even the dam will soon be destroyed by Egypt.
Ethiopia refused to kick out Chinese they will learn through the hard way.

 

[Abaadir]

TPLF are armed to teeth.

They are one of the geesi breeds in Ethiopia after Somalis and Afars.

Amhara and oromo are the largest but Allah did not give them a heart they are cowards.

Imagine somalis with only AK 47 would wipe out entire Ethiopian battalion in the Ogaden.

Tigray and Eritreans lost more than 10K fighting in the Ogafen against Alitihad back in the days.

But Tigray and Eritrea militia would send women to fight Oromos.


Dont be fooled by the hype of the media.It was the West that forced TPLF to step down from power not the machete wielding Oromos.

Ethiopia has alot of problems the west will not allow it to collapse but will teach them a valuable lesson.War is inevitable so that all Chinese infrastructure is destroyed in Ethiopia even the dam will soon be destroyed by Egypt.
Ethiopia refused to kick out Chinese they will learn through the hard way.

Tigray laangaab anaa waso I know they are Fufu allies but they're done and US hegemony in the horn will be done as well China is an unstoppable force right noe

 

[Removed]

Ethiopia is not gaining any Social cohesion it seems to me that it is impossible to gain social cohesion when there are ethnic federal states that prove themselves to their constituents by being anti-establishment. ONLF or even Jawar being a primary example of that. The ball is rolling but its not going up. Only god can tell you the future but Ethiopia is following a lethal pattern.

If they wanted one country they should have slowly brainwashed the country and centralized it but now you have regions moving further and further apart. Ethiopia is supposed to be a melting pot but ethnic federalism makes that impossible. The state at this point means more than the country to everyone whos not Amhara.

The only thing that keeps certain regions from secessionist ideals is either geographical inability or because it isn’t economically viable yet. Its difficult to say if they will ever go to war over something like a presidency but Tigray region is to influential to be pushed aside with no consequences. Ethiopia will either have to make some concessions or Tigray will have to elect a new party that is compatible with the “new ethiopia”.

 

[kickz]

In an open disobedience to the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Tigrays will hold general elections in August that were postponed indefinitely by Abiy. Tigrays do not recognize the Oromo leadership of Ethiopia. Habesha chauvinism is tearing apart Ethiopia. The country might disintegrate.

Opinion: Ethiopia is on the brink of failure – DW – 06/17/2020

Delayed elections and ethnic tensions are undermining Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reform agenda. But the postponed polls could also be a chance for Ethiopia, says DW's Ludger Schadomsky.

www.dw.com

Crisis looms in Ethiopia as elections are postponed – DW – 06/16/2020

Ethiopia's government has postponed elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Discontent with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is growing. Opposition parties feel excluded from the reform process. Even his supporters are unhappy.

www.dw.com

This is Abiys chance, he needs to wipe TPLF off the map. They have had the biggest hand in our problems the last 30 years.

 

[Abaadir]

This is Abiys chance, he needs to wipe TPLF off the map. They have had the biggest hand in our problems the last 30 years.

Abiy is a hero

 

[kickz]

Abiy is a hero

Its crazy how much he has changed Zenawi/TPLF policy, no more dabodhilif maamul goboleed conventions in Ethiopia, Finance Minister is a Somali, Speaker of Upper House is a Somali, Somali has been added to official languages, Ogadenia will get 50% of oil revenue compared to nearly nothing before, etc.

 

[xabashi]

War is inevitable so that all Chinese infrastructure is destroyed in Ethiopia even the dam will soon be destroyed by Egypt.
Ethiopia refused to kick out Chinese they will learn through the hard way.

Sounds more like a movie directed by mr. merqan

 

[repo]

Yes, TPLF is scared to face the first true free and fair election in its existence and is now says it is in the process of holding elections in Tigray but makes it open whether it will ask the federal election board to do the job or wants to create its own election board. All genuine tigrean opposition parties that operate in Tigray (except the 2 or 3 fake opposition parties that have been established recently by TPLF) already boycotted the TPLF conducted fake election. Currently TPLF is facing many uprisings in Tigray by the new youth movement called fenkel that is trying to free Tigray from TPLF and it seems TPLF is scared to death to face a real election for the first time. Tbh, I am not even sure if TPLF really means it or this is just for a PR stunt. PM already said if such action materialize, the federal government will be forced to take harsh measures. Tigray, as a highly dependant region on the federal budget, I am not really sure if TPLF is ready to risk so much. It looks to me the uprising in Tigray by the youth will intensify in the coming months. TPLF is sensing the end is near and they have to do some crazy sh!t to survive or they are done soon.

Ok, now to your questions
1) I think I would say it is the ordinary people. You have to understand that the ordinary people, especially in towns and cities have intermingled so much and the majority of them don't see anything negative happen to Ethiopia. This is true for ordinary Tigreans in the north to the ordinary Oromos and southerners in the south. The second reason is that almost all elites from all ethnic groups except very few agree they do better inside the state of Ethiopia than become disintegrate. They all are aware the cost of disintegration and stateless status so on one is really seriously pushing for disintegration knowing we all will be losing. The last main reason is the federal institutions, especially the army. They are all composed of different ethnic groups but work together as Ethiopians to safeguard and serve the state. In the last crises, the federal institutions have shown that they act mostly neutral without siding for any ethnic group. From all institutions, they are seen by the majority of Ethiopians as mostly not ethnic biased institutions, especially the army.

2) Eritrea after italian colonization built a separate identity from its southern cousins but in my view the decisive step for their independence was the mistake of Haile Selassie to dissolve the federation and even worst of all is the atrocities committed by the derg regime and its complete political stupidity. After living as separate countries for decades now, I think most young Ethiopians don't have close attachment with Eritrea anymore and see it just as a neighbouring country from which refugees come to Ethiopia.

3) I think a collapse is not gonna happen soon since we still have a functioning federal state and a strong army and most of all a leadership that is workaholic and have a clear vision for the coming decades. The government is also getting huge financial support from the western institutions like the IMF and World Bank that it can implement its plan of economic development. Yes, there are issues with TPLF and there are some conflicts in western Oromia but in my view none of these will be very serious to endanger the state let alone to bring the country to collapse.

What's the composition of the army? I was told the high level are Tigray, mid-level are Amhara and the ordinary soldiers are fielded from all ethnicities.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Situation in the Horn of Africa can not be viewed separately from the global events. We are no longer left to our own devices. On a wider regional level the Horn of Africa is tied more to the the Middle East than Africa. Hence, we witnessed the latest attempts be the IC to lay to rest the Somalia-Somaliland dispute. In turn, the Middle East is one of the main battlegrounds among the global powers.

But first let's get THE bigger picture:

The first half of the 2020 brought in some of the developments not seen in decades. There were three major spasms that either broke off geopolitical trends or revealed the systemic weaknesses.

1. The COVID-19 has exposed what China really is. The Chinese ruling party's response to the pandemic was similar to paralysis. They defaulted to what they know best which are repressions and secrecy. The Chinese carefully-tailored image of a positively changing superpower got badly damaged in the US and the EU now. The debacle is very similar to Saudi Arabia's fall from grace in the West in the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi's murder.

2. George Floyd's murder and the COVID-19 caught the Western ruling elites flat-footed. They did not know how to react and smooth out the Negro discontent with the systemic racism in the law enforcement. It created a power vacuum that was quickly filled with the left-leaning radicals. In every country, the government rules by making the populace respect and fear its agencies. That notion got wiped out now in the West. The situation reminds me of Russia in 1917 right before the Bolshevik revolution.

3. Russia made a huge geopolitical miscalculation in regards to Turkey when it went for a full-scale military assault in the Turkish controlled Idlib province of Syria. The notion was that Russia and Assad regime could easily take over the region from the rebels and present Turkey with a fait accompli. Russia was late to understand how existentially dangerous the refugee problem was for Erdogan. When Turkey doubled down in Idlib, the Russian jets bombed the Turkish troops and in one incident killed over 30 Turkish soldiers. In the end Turkey was able to fight them off in a spectacular manner and keep the area to itself.

It sent shock waves in Ankara and marked the beginning of the end of the Russia-Turkey alliance. Now Turkey talks about new era of its relationship with the US. There are no longer mutual multiple visits between Putin and Erdogan that we saw in 2018/2019. This has major geopolitical consequences for the EU, NATO and Israel. I must say positive ones.

I will expand more on the Middle East and the Horn of Africa developments in conjunction with the above three spasms in my later posts. Gotta run some errands right now.

On China's response to the COVID-19 @ 2:08 mark:

 

[Abaadir]

Its crazy how much he has changed Zenawi/TPLF policy, no more dabodhilif maamul goboleed conventions in Ethiopia, Finance Minister is a Somali, Speaker of Upper House is a Somali, Somali has been added to official languages, Ogadenia will get 50% of oil revenue compared to nearly nothing before, etc.

Abiy is a student of history he knows his Oromo tribe will go back to near slavery if the Habesha come back they are lambs to the Habesha lion he desperately needs Somalis back on their feet for the wars to come he knows we're the only people Habesha fear 68 IQ Somalis just don't get it

 

[xabashi]

What's the composition of the army? I was told the high level are Tigray, mid-level are Amhara and the ordinary soldiers are fielded from all ethnicities.

During the TPLF reign, the top generals were all Tigreans but when it comes to the number of the composition of the Army, it was Amhara, Southern, Oromo, Tirgrean in that order. After Abiy came to power, most of the TPLF generals are now retired and their position was filled by mostly Oromo and Amhara generals with the Army chief of staff is now Amhara with his Oromo deputy. PM Abiy also changed the composition of every army unit. Currently, there is not a single army unit that is not ethnically diverse. Every unit from to top to the lower position is composed of multi ethnic groups. No single unit is composed of one ethnic group or even majority one ethnic group.