Found an interesting discussion on Twitter;
To give an example of the power of differential fertility, in 1950 Iraq had 5.7m people vs 103m in Russia, 1:18 ratio. 260k births vs 2.9m, 1:11 ratio, in 2022 Iraq had 1.34m births to 1.31m in Russia. In a single lifetime, 72 years Iraq has gone from 1/11 as many births to more.
Another large scale example is Pakistan. Europe, in 1950, 37m in modern day Pakistan vs 550m in Europe, 1:15 ratio, last year Europe likely had 6.5m births vs 6.2m in Pakistan, likely Pakistan overtakes Europe in births in next few years.
Few people thought in 1950 that W. Pakistan with 37m people could end up with more people than Europe which had 550m one day but it looks quite plausible that might happen later this century. Differential fertility which is an outcome of modernity is an extremely powerful force.
Another example, Central Asia had 2% the amount of births China did in 1955, in 2022 Central Asia had 25% the amount of births China did. Totally changes the way China looks at the region. This is probably why the Uyghurs got destroyed. Later in the century, the population of dry, landlocked Central Asia may converge with or even come to surpass that of the population of the Russian Federation.
To give an example of the power of differential fertility, in 1950 Iraq had 5.7m people vs 103m in Russia, 1:18 ratio. 260k births vs 2.9m, 1:11 ratio, in 2022 Iraq had 1.34m births to 1.31m in Russia. In a single lifetime, 72 years Iraq has gone from 1/11 as many births to more.
Another large scale example is Pakistan. Europe, in 1950, 37m in modern day Pakistan vs 550m in Europe, 1:15 ratio, last year Europe likely had 6.5m births vs 6.2m in Pakistan, likely Pakistan overtakes Europe in births in next few years.
Few people thought in 1950 that W. Pakistan with 37m people could end up with more people than Europe which had 550m one day but it looks quite plausible that might happen later this century. Differential fertility which is an outcome of modernity is an extremely powerful force.
Another example, Central Asia had 2% the amount of births China did in 1955, in 2022 Central Asia had 25% the amount of births China did. Totally changes the way China looks at the region. This is probably why the Uyghurs got destroyed. Later in the century, the population of dry, landlocked Central Asia may converge with or even come to surpass that of the population of the Russian Federation.
