Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

Meles Zenawi did many terrible things like destroying the best hope for a united and strong Somalia in 2006, but this too was the best thing for Ethiopia, as a strong Somalia is the biggest threat to Ethiopia's rule over western Somalia.
 
The big sin that everyone hates TPLF for was thwarting their national ambitions, those same national ambitions now tearing Ethiopia apart. All the people thrown into prison or killed by TPLF were all ethnic nationalists of the sort now mass murdering people across Ethiopia. The one thing this war has shown is that Meles Zenawi may have been a huge asshole but he was absolutely right, his way was the only way Ethiopia remained peaceful.
That is why civil wars will always be a thing in Ethiopia, the only thing holding it together is violence. All Ethiopians are ethnic nationalists the only ones that are "Ethiopian nationalists" are those who rule currently hold power.
 

repo

Recess
VIP
It looks like there is some kind of deal struck between TPLF and Abiy. Banking services are being turned back on in Mekelle, along with flights resuming to Mekelle airport and aid trucks from Semera. Meanwhile TDF are withdrawing back to Mekelle out of Amhara and no reports of clashes.

Looks like TPLF took a peace offer from Abiy and have left OLA holding the bag for the second time in 30 years.
Is OLA a bigger threat to the government than TPLF?
 
Is OLA a bigger threat to the government than TPLF?
Long term, absolutely. If OLA can embed themselves in the Oromo countryside they will be incredibly difficult to dislodge, and they have base areas built up throughout the country. Counterinsurgency efforts would just strengthen OLA as has been demonstrated the Ethiopian military is incapable of not committing horrific massacres everywhere they go
 

Removed

Gif-King
VIP
I wonder is there any agreement that favors Tigray? Amhara will never leave west Tigray and ENDF will be back to Mekelles door sooner or later.
 
This war has demonstrated that all the nationalists in Ethiopia are insane, genocidal maniacs and cannot be trusted. The TPLF gave Afar and Oromo more political power than they have ever had in their history, and OPDO rewarded them by literally trying to exterminate their entire ethnic group AFTER THEY VOLUNTARILY RELINQUISED POWER.

There are bad and good elements among all groups and sub-groups of people. However, let's be honest, the tplf has a lot of resposiblity for what has occurred on their hands. they used the opdo, to exploit the oromo, rape the oromo, kill the oromo, keep the oromo subjugated on his and her own land, so of course, this made the opdo resent the tplf and hate them, this is natural, and it bred a desire for revenge that is stronger than a man's desire for relations with women, perhaps! all of them are guilty! opdo, tplf, amhara elites, etc- the only innocents are the civilians!
 
It is obviously the drones the TPLF has been complaining about



same general not too long ago said

 
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World

VIP
I think this was a planned retreat by the tdf, the endf did not take any of this territory. They overextended their offence, and whilst the endf were crushed on the southern front, they were relatively untouched on tdf’s flanks(afar region). So the tdf realised that their flanks were exposed and vulnerable and withdrew as they predicted there will be a strong offensive against their main army in shewa. There will be heavy fighting on the road to weldiya soon so we will see if this was a decisive shift in the war or a temporary defeat.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
to be fair, abiy identifies more with amharas, than he does with oromos, because of his upbringing, and also, to be fair, he has to represent all of ethiopia, and amhara's, like them or hate them, are a very big part of the ethiopian state
Represent all Ethiopia and yet wants to erhnic cleanse one of them while he has jailed majority if oromo political activists and let amhara rule supreme wven their racists are untouchable they go on media curse on Abye sbut its fine.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
Meles Zenawi did many terrible things like destroying the best hope for a united and strong Somalia in 2006, but this too was the best thing for Ethiopia, as a strong Somalia is the biggest threat to Ethiopia's rule over western Somalia.
There was no strong united Somalia in 2006 it was bandits and warlords hiding under Islamic courts.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
Somalia was at it's most powerful, in terms of military force, during the 1970s. Somalia along with Egypt was basically running Africa
The military ended up like Egypt only killing Somalis rather than protecting Somalis which led to its down fall.

Because the Somalia military ended up protecting the regime in power rather than peotecting the somali people.
The weapons endd up in rebels and the rest is history.
 
I think this was a planned retreat by the tdf, the endf did not take any of this territory. They overextended their offence, and whilst the endf were crushed on the southern front, they were relatively untouched on tdf’s flanks(afar region). So the tdf realised that their flanks were exposed and vulnerable and withdrew as they predicted there will be a strong offensive against their main army in shewa. There will be heavy fighting on the road to weldiya soon so we will see if this was a decisive shift in the war or a temporary defeat.

No one does a tactical retreat from a place that they fought hard to get.
 

World

VIP
No one does a tactical retreat from a place that they fought hard to get.
They didn’t have a choice as they were too stretched and their flanks were exposed, either make a tactical withdrawal or face heavy losses.
 
Ethiopia is on the brink of collapse, they are finished.

they have too many big allies to collapse. when Somalia collapsed they had zero super power allies or even powerful allies.

Ethiopia has China, Russia and Turkey even UAE is helping them. Ethiopia wont collapse but we will see the end of TPLF and possible occupation of tigray region.
 
They didn’t have a choice as they were too stretched and their flanks were exposed, either make a tactical withdrawal or face heavy losses.

TPLF cannot sustain a long bloody war. What the TPLF tried to do is blitzkrieg all the way to Addis Ababa then negotiate from a position of strength, which is why they ignored western Tigray but captured Amhara and Afar cities on the road to Addis.

Anyway it did not work, now they have nothing left. It is countdown to Mekele.
 

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