Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

Bombing civilian targets will just encourage the TDF soldiers to push on, removing any second thoughts they might have of the need to advance on Addis Ababa.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
Bombing civilian targets will just encourage the TDF soldiers to push on, removing any second thoughts they might have of the need to advance on Addis Ababa.
This is going to make TDF reciprocate Abyes generocity when they capture Bahir dar and Gonder.

Amhara people have been outsmarted by Abye, these people have been blinded by hate they cant even see their real enemy i.e Abye.

TDF will eventually win and capture Addis Ababa the longer it takes the more the destruction of the Amhara country.
Amhara region will become like Idbil.

The reason why TDF will win is because of the western powers involvement and the Tigrayans being resolute.
 
This is going to make TDF reciprocate Abyes generocity when they capture Bahir dar and Gonder.

Amhara people have been outsmarted by Abye, these people have been blinded by hate they cant even see their real enemy i.e Abye.

TDF will eventually win and capture Addis Ababa the longer it takes the more the destruction of the Amhara country.
Amhara region will become like Idbil.

The reason why TDF will win is because of the western powers involvement and the Tigrayans being resolute.


For a year since this conflict broke out you always said Abiye is nothing more then Amhara puppet and they run PP behind the scenes.

Now you say Abiye was puppet master from the very beginning.



Which one is it?
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
For a year since this conflict broke out you always said Abiye is nothing more then Amhara puppet and they run PP behind the scenes.

Now you say Abiye was puppet master from the very beginning.



Which one is it?
He went to war because of amhara presssure and demands.
Amhara would have dumped him and sided with tigray and he was not favourable among Oromos.

So now the results are not favouring Amhara and Abye has no other alternative than to push on till all Amhara country is subdued and this might end up in disaster for amhara.
 
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He went to war because of amhara presssure and demands.
Amhara would have dumped him and sided with tigray and he was not favourable among Oromos.

So now the results are not favouring Amhara and Abye has no other alternative than to push on till all Amhara country is subdued and this might end up in disaster for amhara.


You don't make sense either way. Where is @xabashi when you need him he the moment TPLF run through his home region.


Bugged eyed MF was huffing & buffing first few months.


:hemad:
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
You don't make sense either way. Where is @xabashi when you need him he the moment TPLF run through his home region.


Bugged eyed MF was huffing & buffing first few months.


:hemad:
Ok let me break it down for you simply.
Abye cannot rule if Amhara & Tigray forma coalition.If Amhara didnt get what they want from Abye they would ditch him.
Amhara+ TIgray Vs Oromo Oromo will be no match.

Also Abye lost on Oromo support.

Abye bought in far right Amhara policy of making Amhara great again.

Abye on the other hand has Eritrea on his side .
Abye will do anything under the sun to keep power using divide and rule strategy.
He knows a conflict between amhara & Tigray will make both weak and already he has weakened oromos.

Abye jhas silenced amhara moderates and brought on board amhara supremacists.

In Short if you still dont understand.
Its the same way MSB made allaince with Ogaden he used them to galvanise his power and also went against the Ogaden interest even though he gave them fake ministries and awarded them positions in his government he ensured majority of Ogadens were in abject poverty in conflict and marginalised.When Ogaden realised that MSB was a cancer they dumped him.

@Kanan MsB promised to recapture NFD and Ogaden region and fooled the ogaden masses just like Abye has promised amhara to make amhara great again by using refrences of the monarch and the amhara dynasty as being the golden ages.
 
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The critical event was the 2019 coup d'etat in Amhara region. The nationalist Amhara overthrew the old EPRDF Amhara leaders and killed them. Abiy then came in and his special forces killed the nationalist Amhara leadership. This wiped out the Amhara leadership allowing Abiy to assume control of Amhara politics.

Amhara are still reeling from that event.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
The critical event was the 2019 coup d'etat in Amhara region. The nationalist Amhara overthrew the old EPRDF Amhara leaders and killed them. Abiy then came in and his special forces killed the nationalist Amhara leadership. This wiped out the Amhara leadership allowing Abiy to assume control of Amhara politics.

Amhara are still reeling from that event.
Amhara seem to live in the past like 1950s and 1890s.
Like just rednecks in America when Trump was elected and was able to use their sentiments make america white again alot of Rednecks had nostalgic memories of the jim crow and Abye used the same strategy.

Also I dont think Amhara would have been unified to rule Ethiopia again even if they eliminated Abye, because they would disagree and fight each other for power.Dont forget it was Amhara that first rebelled against Haile Selasie with the civil rights movements and protests done by Amhara university students from Influential family who wanted to reform the monarchy and clip its powers and let civilians rule using the British model where the Queen had limited powers and the PM had executive powers.
 
There are fierce regional rivalries, but as is often the case in civil wars, you don't get to choose your side, your side is often chosen for you. The Oromo Liberation Army's goal is for an Oromo nation-state with it's capital in Addis Ababa, renamed Finfinne. For Amhara this is a gun pointed at their head, and victory would lead to the biggest refugee crisis since the 1950s.

Abiy has devoted very few resources to combatting the OLA and has instead focused all his efforts on fighting Tigray, who have no territorial aspirations over Amhara territory, but Amhara have territorial aspirations over Tigray territory. This has led to the worst case scenario for Amhara people, where they have pursued a genocide of Tigray to seize claimed territories and have thus forged an alliance between Tigray and Oromo, one seeing Amhara as an existential threat to their own life and lands, and the other who seek the land of Amhara.

I suspect Amhara, if they had been able to navigate their own course, would not have taken this dreadful path for themselves to follow, but the 2019 coup removed all options from them, they instead follow the course Abiy has laid out for them, the course towards destruction.

The best option for Amhara right now honestly is to surrender to the Tigray Defense Forces and allow Tigray to arm and train an Amhara force to occupy Amhara lands. This would give TDF an incentive to turn over any captured territories to their Amhara proxy. At the moment all incentives are to turn over any territory they can to their allies in the Oromo Liberation Army or their Agaw Liberation Front catspaw. Remaining loyal to Abiy means going down with the ship.
 
There are fierce regional rivalries, but as is often the case in civil wars, you don't get to choose your side, your side is often chosen for you. The Oromo Liberation Army's goal is for an Oromo nation-state with it's capital in Addis Ababa, renamed Finfinne. For Amhara this is a gun pointed at their head, and victory would lead to the biggest refugee crisis since the 1950s.

Abiy has devoted very few resources to combatting the OLA and has instead focused all his efforts on fighting Tigray, who have no territorial aspirations over Amhara territory, but Amhara have territorial aspirations over Tigray territory. This has led to the worst case scenario for Amhara people, where they have pursued a genocide of Tigray to seize claimed territories and have thus forged an alliance between Tigray and Oromo, one seeing Amhara as an existential threat to their own life and lands, and the other who seek the land of Amhara.

I suspect Amhara, if they had been able to navigate their own course, would not have taken this dreadful path for themselves to follow, but the 2019 coup removed all options from them, they instead follow the course Abiy has laid out for them, the course towards destruction.

The best option for Amhara right now honestly is to surrender to the Tigray Defense Forces and allow Tigray to arm and train an Amhara force to occupy Amhara lands. This would give TDF an incentive to turn over any captured territories to their Amhara proxy. At the moment all incentives are to turn over any territory they can to their allies in the Oromo Liberation Army or their Agaw Liberation Front catspaw. Remaining loyal to Abiy means going down with the ship.

A few things here ;
Remember, it's all about interests. Not about what's ideal or right.... As unfortunate as that is. Interests and alliances change in politics.
The Amharas got involved in this war because they saw it as being in their best interests, for various reasons, one is to ensure that the TPLF would not once again come to power at the center. Abiy and his party may be bad but they don't have a manifesto declaring the Amhara to be their enemies. Let's also not pretend that a greater Tigray map hasn't been a concept since the early days of the TPLF'S struggle. A map which includes large parts of Eritrea, Afar lands, etc.
When the Ethiopian army began to send reinforcements to Tigray, it was the Amhara forces, Fano, etc, who went into Welkait and what they (Tigrayans) call western Tigray, to capture what they consider to be traditional Amhara lands, and the Tigrayan forces there were forced to retreat into Tigray. Abiy sees both Amhara and Oromo nationalism as a threat to his grip on power. He prefers the urbanized, Ethiopian unionist type of Amhara, or people with that mentality and ideology, i.e. Berhanu Nega and others, as opposed to the rural, nationalist Amhara, who maybe to mobilize their people and not only overthrow Abiys allies in Amhara state but then go after Abiy himself, who already has very few allies.

As far as OLA goes, they know that the idea of an independent Oromia wouldn't work unless the superpowers of the world approved. Our situation is far more complex than say, Eritrea who had its borders established since colonial times. Yes Finfinne is ours but that doesn't mean they'd kick out millions of people, that's just feasible... they'd just have to accept their new rulers like they did countless other times. This time it'd be rulers whose people almost completely surround the city, in the millions, and who aren't minorities or far from up north (Tigray). It'd be people who the Amhara, for better or worse, know better anyways seeing as how many of them have Oromo blood as well. The disagreement is ideological but even that would be something that we could solve at the negotiation tables. Today's OLA is led by intellectual warriors. They can do it, for sure. Finfinne isn't Amhara land, they know it, you know it, we all know it.
 

reer

BANTUWEYNE
VIP
Today's OLA is led by intellectual warriors.

michael-jordan-laughing.gif
 

GemState

Probitas
There are fierce regional rivalries, but as is often the case in civil wars, you don't get to choose your side, your side is often chosen for you. The Oromo Liberation Army's goal is for an Oromo nation-state with it's capital in Addis Ababa, renamed Finfinne. For Amhara this is a gun pointed at their head, and victory would lead to the biggest refugee crisis since the 1950s.

Abiy has devoted very few resources to combatting the OLA and has instead focused all his efforts on fighting Tigray, who have no territorial aspirations over Amhara territory, but Amhara have territorial aspirations over Tigray territory. This has led to the worst case scenario for Amhara people, where they have pursued a genocide of Tigray to seize claimed territories and have thus forged an alliance between Tigray and Oromo, one seeing Amhara as an existential threat to their own life and lands, and the other who seek the land of Amhara.

I suspect Amhara, if they had been able to navigate their own course, would not have taken this dreadful path for themselves to follow, but the 2019 coup removed all options from them, they instead follow the course Abiy has laid out for them, the course towards destruction.

The best option for Amhara right now honestly is to surrender to the Tigray Defense Forces and allow Tigray to arm and train an Amhara force to occupy Amhara lands. This would give TDF an incentive to turn over any captured territories to their Amhara proxy. At the moment all incentives are to turn over any territory they can to their allies in the Oromo Liberation Army or their Agaw Liberation Front catspaw. Remaining loyal to Abiy means going down with the ship.
The Amhara are finished anyway, their TFR is only 3, while the Oromo have a TFR of 5. There is no future where the Amhara have exclusive control of Addis Ababa nor the demographic to impose themselves on the rest of Ethiopia like they used to do.

Only way for a functional Ethiopia to persist is if the Oromo are at the head.
 

digaagjecel

SSpots starting point guard
The Amhara are finished anyway, their TFR is only 3, while the Oromo have a TFR of 5. There is no future where the Amhara have exclusive control of Addis Ababa nor the demographic to impose themselves on the rest of Ethiopia like they used to do.

Only way for a functional Ethiopia to persist is if the Oromo are at the head.
It’s either Oromos rule or western backed tigrayans rule.
 
There are fierce regional rivalries, but as is often the case in civil wars, you don't get to choose your side, your side is often chosen for you. The Oromo Liberation Army's goal is for an Oromo nation-state with it's capital in Addis Ababa, renamed Finfinne. For Amhara this is a gun pointed at their head, and victory would lead to the biggest refugee crisis since the 1950s.

Abiy has devoted very few resources to combatting the OLA and has instead focused all his efforts on fighting Tigray, who have no territorial aspirations over Amhara territory, but Amhara have territorial aspirations over Tigray territory. This has led to the worst case scenario for Amhara people, where they have pursued a genocide of Tigray to seize claimed territories and have thus forged an alliance between Tigray and Oromo, one seeing Amhara as an existential threat to their own life and lands, and the other who seek the land of Amhara.

I suspect Amhara, if they had been able to navigate their own course, would not have taken this dreadful path for themselves to follow, but the 2019 coup removed all options from them, they instead follow the course Abiy has laid out for them, the course towards destruction.

The best option for Amhara right now honestly is to surrender to the Tigray Defense Forces and allow Tigray to arm and train an Amhara force to occupy Amhara lands. This would give TDF an incentive to turn over any captured territories to their Amhara proxy. At the moment all incentives are to turn over any territory they can to their allies in the Oromo Liberation Army or their Agaw Liberation Front catspaw. Remaining loyal to Abiy means going down with the ship.

In what world is surrender a good idea for an entire ethnic group -- especially after all that has transpired? It's better to die than to be subjugated.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
In what world is surrender a good idea for an entire ethnic group -- especially after all that has transpired? It's better to die than to be subjugated.
Tigrayans will eventualy come to power the earlier the better they ditch Abye.

The more they have support for Abye the more their land is destroyed and their misery piles up.

If I was Amhara I would surrender now than latter.
 
Tigrayans will eventualy come to power the earlier the better they ditch Abye.

The more they have support for Abye the more their land is destroyed and their misery piles up.

If I was Amhara I would surrender now than latter.

I just don't think it's a good idea for them to "surrender" because that would entail a program of suppression that could last indefinitely; putting yourself to the mercy of others is revolting and rarely ever results in real peace.

In addition to the many humiliations they would undoubtedly suffer, they would have to endure ccupation; the Amhara should push the Tigray out and make the war terrible for all involved, so that a negotiated settlement becomes the only viable option.

I also imagine that surrendering would be terribly emasculating; I can't see how Amhara women would still be attracted to their men if they surrendered -- leaving them open to the usual dishonours and miseries that follow. Best to burn everything.
 
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