Let's use the memory section of our heads and remember how the ground war actually played out now? The ENDF really gained nothing in Tigray at great cost of life. If you remember, Wolkait was taken by Amhara militias and the big cities of the north were taken by EDF (with the ENDF providing cannon fodder). If you remember the offensives in the Amhara region you will recall that the TDF was able to maneuver quite easily and smash ENDF positions handily, they pushed them pretty close to Addis. They only turned that around when t Amharic militias came to their aid- then of course there was the air element but the fact that the Amharic countryside stopped being free-space for Tigray was massive.
Now let's see what the situation would be if war starts. Eitrea, Tigray, OLA, and Amhara Fano are allies now. This means that unlike in the last war the TDF only has to deal with 1 enemy and not 3. The TDF can use the Amharic countryside to make moves, if the EDF sends units to the highlands instead of going all out defending Assab then the situation in the highlands really could be disastrous for Addis. Couple this with the fact that Oromiya would also become a warzone and Ethiopia could be finished- note that if war starts tomorrow every single region of any importance with the exception of Somali and B-G would be involved (and no Somali or Gomuz wants to die for Addis, matter of fact the BGLF and ONLF might just re-start their insurgencies in that case).
Ethiopian air power is very very overrated in all honesty, the EDF pouring one-hunded-thousand men into Adwa might have been more important to the TPLF then sporadic bombing- if you remember correctly they threw in the towel the day after the EDF rapidly took almost every single city of any importance in central and east Tigray.
Also if drones and planes could win wars then why is the ENDF losing in Amhara currently? Fano literally has a dishka shortage if anything they could be a great example if the ENDF actually had the capability to destroy armies from the air. Same could be said about Shabaab but they don't put that much focus on Somalia these days.
