BREAKING NEWS: WOYANE FORCES INVADE WOLKAIT, CROSS TEKEZE RIVER
- Thread starter Mohamedamiin120
- Start date
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, Somali (Galbeed).
@Ugas.Wacays You won't believe this
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, Somali (Galbeed).
Let's review what happened last time they fought...These guys are resilient I’ll give them that…. But they’re fucking retarded toothey lost 10% of their population last time yet they want to fight again
TPLF+OLA+BPLF+Agaw militias VS ENDF+Amhara militias (Pre-FANO)+Eritrea+Afar militias
Now lets see the situation now...
TPLF+Eritrea+OLF+FANO+Agaw militias VS ENDF+Afar militias
Not looking good for Addis, and remember that even with the long odds the ENDF led anti-Woyane coalition was pushed to 60 miles of Addis at once point, this time it might be very different.
Yes Tigray was harmed extensively during the war, but 10%? Tigray has 6 million people... only 100-200k civilians died at most. Also do not trust PP sources which say 600,000 Woyane troops died.
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They lost about 600k civilians bro not just fighting men. Do you genuinely think Eritrea will ever ally with tplf lmao?
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, Somali (Galbeed).
600k civilians? Never saw such a stat- source??????
Eritrea is allied to the TPLF, if you follow horn of africa politics this is an open secret at this point.
Tigray and Eritrea have reduced their garrisons on their borders substantially to the point of only maintaining border checkpoints.
Both Tigrayan and Eritrean officials, generals, and diplomats have been seen in each others capitals.
Tigray and Eritrea opened up embassies WITH EACH OTHER (note that Tigray is a region so they are going out of their way here).
Cross-border trade between Tigray and Eritrea has not been effected by Ethiopian or Eritrean policy towards each other, in fact it has increased. which implies that Eritrea has a trade policy with Ethiopia and then a trade policy with Tigray (note that Tigray-Ethiopia trade relations have been declining hard recently).
Eritrea has the right to monitor Tigray and make sure it's up to code with the Pretoria agreement (specifically the disarmament sections), it has not done so.
Everything indicates to an alliance between these two!
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, Somali (Galbeed).
Shit like this is why you don't trust AI, the source for the 600,000 figure is former Nigerian military dictator Obasanjo (who himself cited nothing, he just said that one day!)
According to Ghent University however the range is 162,000–378,000 killed.
Tigray are also crusaders….
That is incorrect Ghent updated their numbers. https://martinplaut.com/2022/10/19/new-estimate-of-the-tigray-death-toll/
They flew too close to the sun. Up to 600k dead, nearly 10% of women raped, fertile section of the region and border to sudan annexed and cleansed, million IDPs, infrastructure destroyed, 56k children underwent malnutrition etc. Tigray will not recover which is why you see them praying for Eritreans to change their tune.
theMacrobian Nool
Nin Rag, I don’t do Qabil Talk 🚫
TPLF woyanes in aakhiro lo diro waye that will speed up the kala qeeybis of Ethiopia wa cadowga kowad somalida for the last century dhib wadiida dadkaynu wa ayaga
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, Somali (Galbeed).
600k is the upper estimate, if 600k Tigrayans actually died there would be no TPLF today. Imagine if 600k Somalis died in the ONLF insurgency there would be no ONLF today (I used Galbeed because Galbeed and Tigray have similar populations)
Yes western Tigray was ethnically cleansed, but 600k??? Impossible
What’s with the deni pfp??
Compared to what the TPLF was before they basically no longer exist. They are a tertiary threat now which is why Abiy will now happily work with them over Amharas or Eritreans.
600k isnt even the worst part. We know atleast 60k Tigray women were held as sex slaves and 150k raped overall. The Tigray would have been better off having their top 10 cities nuked.
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, Somali (Galbeed).
This part is generally incorrect, the TPLF's organizational structure, it's control of the Tigray Defense Forces, the confidence of the Tigrayan bourgeoise, and it's ideological and narrative control over the whole of Tigray has not been shaken and have actually rebounded since the war.
What about the army though? In 2021 the TDF had 250,000 soldiers while in 2024 it 270,000- it's number of heavy weaponry is a harder thing to quantify since technically the answer should be 'zero' but we all know the TPLF has not disarmed itself.
Also there is the control factor, the TDF before the war was not ideologically motivated and in fact had split loyalties, not it is highly politicized and has one loyalty- to the TPLF.
Also newer developments show that the TPLF is snagging control over institutions like healthcare, has stopped selling gold and other precious metals to Ethiopia, made it's own regulatory bodies in place of Ethiopia's (in effect controlling the mining sector), has stopped paying taxes to Ethiopia, and ended co-operation with Ethiopia on fiscal policy (in effect controlling it's own financial sector).
tldr: the TPLF's control of Tigray, it's army, it's institutions, and it's population has been tightened.
This part is generally true, but how exactly does this make Tigray weaker? This actually makes the people's of Tigray more unified in their opposition to Addis if anything- if we are talking in the strategic sense then Tigray had to forfeit large sums of money to help it's female population recuperate and lost considerable amounts of productivity- but in exchange has all but erased internal oppositions and dual loyalties to Addis and the Prosperity Party, if war starts tomorrow there will be no issues in the home front (while Ethiopia's home front is utterly shattered).
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@Mohamedamiin120 you greatly over value the TPLFs gains in that war. I really cant stress that enough.
They went through something many times worse than Gaza and gained the ability to control east Tigray? I dont think you realize the TPLF haven’t struggled to have internal support/control for around 40 years now atleast.
They went through something many times worse than Gaza and gained the ability to control east Tigray? I dont think you realize the TPLF haven’t struggled to have internal support/control for around 40 years now atleast.
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theMacrobian Nool
Nin Rag, I don’t do Qabil Talk 🚫
what’s wrong with it?
Mohamedamiin120
Marxist-Leninist, Somali (Galbeed).
Let's use the memory section of our heads and remember how the ground war actually played out now? The ENDF really gained nothing in Tigray at great cost of life. If you remember, Wolkait was taken by Amhara militias and the big cities of the north were taken by EDF (with the ENDF providing cannon fodder). If you remember the offensives in the Amhara region you will recall that the TDF was able to maneuver quite easily and smash ENDF positions handily, they pushed them pretty close to Addis. They only turned that around when t Amharic militias came to their aid- then of course there was the air element but the fact that the Amharic countryside stopped being free-space for Tigray was massive.
Now let's see what the situation would be if war starts. Eitrea, Tigray, OLA, and Amhara Fano are allies now. This means that unlike in the last war the TDF only has to deal with 1 enemy and not 3. The TDF can use the Amharic countryside to make moves, if the EDF sends units to the highlands instead of going all out defending Assab then the situation in the highlands really could be disastrous for Addis. Couple this with the fact that Oromiya would also become a warzone and Ethiopia could be finished- note that if war starts tomorrow every single region of any importance with the exception of Somali and B-G would be involved (and no Somali or Gomuz wants to die for Addis, matter of fact the BGLF and ONLF might just re-start their insurgencies in that case).
Ethiopian air power is very very overrated in all honesty, the EDF pouring one-hunded-thousand men into Adwa might have been more important to the TPLF then sporadic bombing- if you remember correctly they threw in the towel the day after the EDF rapidly took almost every single city of any importance in central and east Tigray.
Also if drones and planes could win wars then why is the ENDF losing in Amhara currently? Fano literally has a dishka shortage if anything they could be a great example if the ENDF actually had the capability to destroy armies from the air. Same could be said about Shabaab but they don't put that much focus on Somalia these days.
Agree with everything you mentioned except the ENDF air defence, it’s is very good relatively to the region and i believe the Air force is ranked 52nd in the world. The main setbacks are their outdated resources.
For fano, it’s because you can’t beat an opposition that is as decentralised as them through air supremacy. guerrillas in Amhara have the perfect terrains and climate to counter it.
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