Bitcoin Sets a New All Time High: What is Next? $110,855.50
- Thread starter Saxiix
- Start date
For anybody interested in this sphere of investment. This is my theory you can check to confirm but it seems this way.
Bitcoin leadership / following market structure:.
USD -> stock market -> Bitcoin -> alt coin
if the dollar goes up. Bitcoin goes down.
If the dollar goes down bitcoin goes up.
Altcoin does the opposite of bitcoin.
if bitcoin goes up alts go down
if bitcoin goes down alts go up.
Both of these structures tell you about human behavior.
if the dollar is up bitcoin investors don't need bitcoin to protect their money; so it goes down since they will sell it and put it in the stock market. If the dollar is down they will invest in bitcoin to hold their money. This is the whales i am talking about not retail they decide the direction bitcoin goes.
Now for alts. I don't know the human behavior for this one. But it does seem to do the opposite of bitcoin. Its pattern tends to show it going up from november to post holiday season. Its weird but this one might be a retail investor behavior.
Bitcoin leadership / following market structure:.
USD -> stock market -> Bitcoin -> alt coin
if the dollar goes up. Bitcoin goes down.
If the dollar goes down bitcoin goes up.
Altcoin does the opposite of bitcoin.
if bitcoin goes up alts go down
if bitcoin goes down alts go up.
Both of these structures tell you about human behavior.
if the dollar is up bitcoin investors don't need bitcoin to protect their money; so it goes down since they will sell it and put it in the stock market. If the dollar is down they will invest in bitcoin to hold their money. This is the whales i am talking about not retail they decide the direction bitcoin goes.
Now for alts. I don't know the human behavior for this one. But it does seem to do the opposite of bitcoin. Its pattern tends to show it going up from november to post holiday season. Its weird but this one might be a retail investor behavior.
Last edited:
CHATGPT On my theory
Your Theory Summary
1. Market Flow Structure
USD → Stock Market → Bitcoin → Altcoins
This suggests capital flows from safer assets (USD), to moderately risky assets (stocks), to highly volatile assets (Bitcoin), and finally to the most speculative ones (altcoins). This "risk-on" to "risk-off" rotation theory is widely observed in trading psychology.
Bitcoin and USD Inverse Relationship
- Claim: If the dollar goes up, Bitcoin goes down (and vice versa).
- Reality Check: This is partially true.
- Reasoning: A strong dollar often correlates with risk aversion. Investors prefer holding USD during uncertain times. Conversely, a weakening USD may lead investors to seek inflation hedges or alternative stores of value like Bitcoin or gold.
- Counterpoint: The correlation isn’t always strong. Sometimes Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset and tracks equities (especially tech stocks).
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins
- Claim: Alts do the opposite of Bitcoin.
- Reality Check: Not entirely accurate.
- What’s Actually Observed:
- When Bitcoin rallies, altcoins may initially lag (as capital consolidates in BTC) but often follow later — known as the “alt season.”
- When Bitcoin drops sharply, alts tend to crash harder — suggesting they’re not inversely related, but more leveraged to Bitcoin’s movement.
- Retail Behavior Hypothesis: You’re likely right that alts are retail-driven. Retail investors tend to FOMO into altcoins hoping for higher returns, often after Bitcoin has already moved.
- What’s Actually Observed:
Holiday Season Altcoin Rally
- Observation: Alts rally from November to post-holiday season.
- Reality Check: This has historical merit.
- Possible Reasons:
- End-of-year portfolio rebalancing.
- Retail FOMO with holiday bonuses/spending.
- Crypto market cycles have previously peaked around Q4 (e.g., 2017, 2021).
- Possible Reasons:
Behavioral Insight
You’re correctly focusing on human behavior, which is central in crypto markets where fundamentals are often weak or speculative. Key behaviors include:
- Whale-driven macro plays (e.g., Bitcoin as hedge or risk asset)
- Retail FOMO into alts during hype
- Seasonality and psychological patterns (like "Uptober" or "December pump")
Suggestions for You
- Track Dominance Metrics:
- Use Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) to monitor whether capital is rotating into or out of Bitcoin.
- Use DXY (Dollar Index) to measure USD strength.
- Model Your Thesis:
- Backtest historical charts to validate if these patterns repeat consistently.
- Stay Nimble:
- Crypto cycles shift rapidly. What worked in 2017 may not apply in 2025.
Humans are simple creatures. Look up Tulip mania.
We'll see let's give it some time
What is it about? Put it here so people can benefit. BTW Nidar and @cunug3aad if you two are in another country what is the price showing for btc in your currency. I am curious to know the prices in comparison to the dollar.
95,375.96EUR
Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble
The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble is seen as the first financial bubble. It occurred in Holland in the early 1600s, when speculation inflated tulip bulbs’ value.
enjoy the read.
cunug3aad
3rdchild · Aw geelale
80,016.54GBP
