AU Communique re: Red Sea 'ween .Et vs .So &&

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

What a double talk, and disappointment.

4. COMMENDS the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) under the leadership of H.E. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for progress being made, as well as the AU Transition mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the Troop and Police Contributing countries (T/PCCs) for the sacrifices made in supporting the FGS in the fight against Al Shabaab; APPEALS to Member States and the international community, in particular, bilateral partners, to increase their support to the FGS efforts at this critical stage, including in enhancing force generation, to degrade and ultimately defeat Al-Shabaab, as well as towards, social cohesion and extension of stabilisation initiatives, including in newly liberated areas; COMMENDS the UN, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom and the United States of America and other partners for their continued financial and logistical support to ATMIS; ACKNOWLEDGES and COMMENDS progress with the

transition of security responsibilities from ATMIS to the Somali Security Forces and DIRECTS the Commission, in consultation with FGS, the T/PCCs, the UN and other partners, reach a consensus on the transfer of security responsibility from ATMIS to the FGS, including the Phase 3 drawdown scheduled for June 2024, and final ATMIS exit by December 2024, and CALLS ON the Commission and the FGS to take appropriate measures to preserve the gains and sacrifices made over the past 17 years of AU’s engagement in Somalia; and WELCOMES the disbursement of USD3.5 million from the Crisis Reserve Facility (CRF) of the AU Peace Fund and USD19,068,914 from AU Member States contributions to bridge the 25,895,129 USD funding gap in ATMIS operations; 5. EXPRESSES DEEP CONCERN over the ongoing tension between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Federal Republic of Somalia, following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and the northern region of Somalia (Somaliland) on 1 January 2024 and its impact on peace, security and stability of the region; REAFFIRMS its strong commitment and support for preserving the unity, territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of all Member States, including those of the Federal Republic of Somalia and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; and therefore, CALLS ON the two countries to de-escalate and engage in meaningful dialogue towards finding a peaceful resolution of the matter;

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

US Rep. at the UN vs the witch of the West re: the MoU saga.

 

[Ximan iyo Xadeed]

This is a cursed continent

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

US sees Mou through the narrow lens of it being distruptive towards its fight against extremism by creating a rift between Ethiopia and Somalia who are major partners in that fight.

UN sees it more broadly in terms of how it affects people and polities within Somalia/Somaliland. How it effects the politics and economics and security, hence why she discussed the benefits of the MoU.

Neither party cares about the territorial integrity of Somalia outside of their interests in stabilizing one aspect or another.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

US sees Mou through the narrow lens of it being distruptive towards its fight against extremism by creating a rift between Ethiopia and Somalia who are major partners in that fight.

UN sees it more broadly in terms of how it affects people and polities within Somalia/Somaliland. How it effects the politics and economics and security, hence why she discussed the benefits of the MoU.

Neither party cares about the territorial integrity of Somalia outside of their interests in stabilizing one aspect or another.

Surprisingly, a good analyses, and in line with how I see the imperial overlords. Not bad for an imposter.

 

[LiveFrom]

US sees Mou through the narrow lens of it being distruptive towards its fight against extremism by creating a rift between Ethiopia and Somalia who are major partners in that fight.

UN sees it more broadly in terms of how it affects people and polities within Somalia/Somaliland. How it effects the politics and economics and security, hence why she discussed the benefits of the MoU.

Neither party cares about the territorial integrity of Somalia outside of their interests in stabilizing one aspect or another.

I wouldnt discount et aligning with brics also being a factor for the us taking the other side. It sounds silly but they do know about regional rivals and histories to some extent

It is an L for the fgs that many of the states, like russia, are leaning on "we encourage dialogue", because it means dignifying the MoU as a legitimate offer. Meaning the bypassing of the fgs to sl is legitimate.

Hsm and the fgs going the angle of "ethiopia wants to annex our land" is cute because he wants to lean on the russia / ukraine sentiment for the cadaans but its too difficult a sell and comes off a little hysterical. Especially if the navy port portion has actually been scrapped

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

I wouldnt discount et aligning with brics also being a factor for the us taking the other side. It sounds silly but they do know about regional rivals and histories to some extent

It is an L for the fgs that many of the states, like russia, are leaning on "we encourage dialogue", because it means dignifying the MoU as a legitimate offer. Meaning the bypassing of the fgs to sl is legitimate.

Hsm and the fgs going the angle of "ethiopia wants to annex our land" is cute because he wants to lean on the russia / ukraine sentiment for the cadaans but its too difficult a sell and comes off a little hysterical. Especially if the navy port portion has actually been scrapped

The US has spoken against the MoU but at the same time they don't want to alienate Ethiopia either.

So far there's been some condemnation of the MoU, but most parties are calling for dialogue. Somalia was hoping that Ethiopia would have been forced to withdraw the MoU but that hasn't happened.

Ethiopia and Somaliland will push ahead and it will include a naval base. Ethiopia will continue to try and get Somalia to the negotiating table; Somalia will continue to avoid them.

The next escalation will be the signing of the MoU. If Ethiopia can convince other countries to recognize Somaliland immediately it will seriously undermine Somalia's argument but they will probably just call it an Ethiopian plot against their soveriegnty.

At that point who knows what happens.