Amidst Meaningless Constitutional Discourse, an Afghanistan-like Takeover Looms

[ggoat]

The ongoing conflict against Al-Shabaab has revealed a troubling reality: a significant portion of the population in the south either sympathizes with or supports Al-Shabaab.

Two critical points often overlooked:

1. There's animosity towards Abdullahi Yusuf for his efforts against terrorism.
2. A notable segment of the population has actively fought alongside Al-Shabaab, viewing it as a mark of honor.

When the failures of their leaders are pointed out, some argue it's a strategic concern for the West to allow Al-Shabaab to gain ground.

This situation draws parallels to the challenges faced in Afghanistan

Afghanistan 2.0

 

[Bahal]

As long as there is injustice, marginalization, and lack of representation, AS will remain an attractive alternative to the FGS whose troops are seen by many as occupying clan militias.

 

[Dalac Bilaash]

Comparing Al shabab to The Taliban is like comparing Real Madrid to Luton Town Al shabab tactics is just hit and run they can't take over anything matter of fact they've even lost more lands they used to control Taliban was supported by all the big tribes in Afghanistan thats why they won in Somalia not a single clan supports Al shabab.

 

[ggoat]

Comparing Al shabab to The Taliban is like comparing Real Madrid to Luton Town Al shabab tactics is just hit and run they can't take over anything matter of fact they've even lost more lands they used to control Taliban was supported by all the big tribes in Afghanistan thats why they won in Somalia not a single clan supports Al shabab.

They are the silent majority in Mogadishu.

 

[Bazed]

Al shabaab wouldn't be able to hold the nation if they won it. The Taliban was a organization made up of the biggest and most powerful ethnic group in Afghanistan. Meanwhile Al shabaab may have support from some clans, they are often made up of ragtag fanatics. If they gained power I guarantee you that they would fall to infighting (which has happened before) and splintering.

The issue with the FGS is:

A) Too lofty goals at a too short time span. The phase 1 and 2 idea while good was flawed by the ridiculous timeline place on it. It's very clear that it takes a lot to gain land, so ample time must be given to planning and executing effective strategies to achieve that.

B) No military structure. I can not name a general or captain involved in the operation. While this can come from my own lack of knowledge I think the fact there are no stand out military leaders is bad. Men rally behind those that make them feel like they're fighting for something and good leader can make or break a squad. The head of the military of defense is just some guy, who would want to listen to a man who's no solider experience.

There are further issues including but not limited to corruption, lack of pay and the marginalisation some groups feel from the FGS. It's a shame really cause 1 good leader could probably end Al shabaab in 5 years or at the very least cripple them beyond repair. Somalia is in desperate need of worthwhile leadership.

 

[Camaar]

Comparing Al shabab to The Taliban is like comparing Real Madrid to Luton Town Al shabab tactics is just hit and run they can't take over anything matter of fact they've even lost more lands they used to control Taliban was supported by all the big tribes in Afghanistan thats why they won in Somalia not a single clan supports Al shabab.

It doesn't matter, the tajik and uzbek northern regions were were the first to fall in 2021.
The one positive thing about somalia is that it is not financial blackhole like Afghanistan so I don't think International community will pull the plug anytime soon.

 

[Dalac Bilaash]

It doesn't matter, the tajik and uzbek northern regions were were the first to fall in 2021.
The one positive thing about somalia is that it is not financial blackhole like Afghanistan so I don't think International community will pull the plug anytime soon.

keep day dreaming about shabaab takeover i will take you people serious when you come to the reality.

 

[Camaar]

keep day dreaming about shabaab takeover i will take you people serious when you come to the reality.

I don't think they will take over bc the international community won't allow an al qaeda franchise to control the horn of Africa. However if international community withdraw supports i don't see anyone in somalia stopping them, they will even go for hargeisa and Puntland

 

[Zak12]

I don't think they will take over bc the international community won't allow an al qaeda franchise to control the horn of Africa. However if international community withdraw supports i don't see anyone in somalia stopping them, they will even go for hargeisa and Puntland

There will be American bases built. Only AMTIS will leaving

 

[cow]

Comparing Al shabab to The Taliban is like comparing Real Madrid to Luton Town Al shabab tactics is just hit and run they can't take over anything matter of fact they've even lost more lands they used to control Taliban was supported by all the big tribes in Afghanistan thats why they won in Somalia not a single clan supports Al shabab.

Not a single clan supports the bunker government either.