Amhara tactical and strategic decisions leading to disaster after disaster

The Amhara FANO militia had very successful recruitment and mobilization after the outrage of ENDF withdrawals away from TDF offensives into Amhara territory, but this has led to a long term problem with their strategic and tactical thinking. ENDF was correct to withdraw from a superior offensive, remember Mao's wise words:

Keep men, lose land: land can be taken again. Keep land, lose men: land and men are both lost

Mao knew a thing or two about asymmetrical warfare, he successfully defeated several much larger and better equipped foes through his strategic thinking. ENDF was following this sound military strategy of force preservation to withdraw until ENDF could assemble a force capable of counter-attacking TDF positions.

Here FANO entered the picture. FANO are firmly in favor of "keep land, lose men", believing the heroic myth that dying defending your land is a successful military strategy. FANO early in the war lacked the military strength to turn the tide against TDF, but have from the start sabotaged ENDF's efforts to withdraw and preserve their forces, ensuring many ENDF armies were unnecessarily encircled by TDF, who are a highly mobile force who actively pursue encirclements.

The first of these disasters, after the unforced error of ENDF's encirclement and destruction of their main field army in the Tembien Mountains, following Abiy Ahmed's folly of ordering an offensive against TDF's fortress in the mountains, FANO interfered with and sabotaged ENDF's attempt to withdraw remaining equipment from Alamata in Amhara's newly annexed Raya. Amhara forces, anxious to make the region theirs forever and ethnically cleanse it of its Tigray inhabitants, blocked roads with obstacles and attacked ENDF soldiers trying to withdraw, killing several officers. This caused chaos in the ENDF and Tigray forces moved around them and cut off their escape route, encircling and capturing all the military equipment ENDF were attempting to save from the TDF offensive.

Again Amhara militias and FANO blocked roads and shot at ENDF as they tried to withdraw south from Kobo, where Amhara militias again protested and blocked roads and continued to slow down ENDF withdrawal from Kobo and all the way down to Weldiya where the largest encirclement and military disaster of Amhara forces occurred, where an entire army of Amhara special forces refused to withdraw and were completely destroyed.

The rainy season ended the war for the next few months, as Abiy Ahmed then assembled a brand new army of conscripts and deluded Amhara nationalists into a very large but extremely poorly equipped army, often armed only with machetes and ancient rifles. This was a crap army, but could garrison and slow down the TDF offensives by using strong points and defense in depth, maybe careful use of mines and IEDs. In a second utter folly, Abiy instead of fighting defensively ordered a giant human wave attack against the TDF entrenched in the mountains, who had had months to dig trenches and build defensive fortifications and had many heavy weapons. This whole army was annihilated.

This military malpractice continues unabated, with no lessons learned whatsoever. I am at a loss as to what could be the cause of this. I suspect the war is being directed by politicians with no military or strategic education whatsoever.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
The Amhara FANO militia had very successful recruitment and mobilization after the outrage of ENDF withdrawals away from TDF offensives into Amhara territory, but this has led to a long term problem with their strategic and tactical thinking. ENDF was correct to withdraw from a superior offensive, remember Mao's wise words:



Mao knew a thing or two about asymmetrical warfare, he successfully defeated several much larger and better equipped foes through his strategic thinking. ENDF was following this sound military strategy of force preservation to withdraw until ENDF could assemble a force capable of counter-attacking TDF positions.

Here FANO entered the picture. FANO are firmly in favor of "keep land, lose men", believing the heroic myth that dying defending your land is a successful military strategy. FANO early in the war lacked the military strength to turn the tide against TDF, but have from the start sabotaged ENDF's efforts to withdraw and preserve their forces, ensuring many ENDF armies were unnecessarily encircled by TDF, who are a highly mobile force who actively pursue encirclements.

The first of these disasters, after the unforced error of ENDF's encirclement and destruction of their main field army in the Tembien Mountains, following Abiy Ahmed's folly of ordering an offensive against TDF's fortress in the mountains, FANO interfered with and sabotaged ENDF's attempt to withdraw remaining equipment from Alamata in Amhara's newly annexed Raya. Amhara forces, anxious to make the region theirs forever and ethnically cleanse it of its Tigray inhabitants, blocked roads with obstacles and attacked ENDF soldiers trying to withdraw, killing several officers. This caused chaos in the ENDF and Tigray forces moved around them and cut off their escape route, encircling and capturing all the military equipment ENDF were attempting to save from the TDF offensive.

Again Amhara militias and FANO blocked roads and shot at ENDF as they tried to withdraw south from Kobo, where Amhara militias again protested and blocked roads and continued to slow down ENDF withdrawal from Kobo and all the way down to Weldiya where the largest encirclement and military disaster of Amhara forces occurred, where an entire army of Amhara special forces refused to withdraw and were completely destroyed.

The rainy season ended the war for the next few months, as Abiy Ahmed then assembled a brand new army of conscripts and deluded Amhara nationalists into a very large but extremely poorly equipped army, often armed only with machetes and ancient rifles. This was a crap army, but could garrison and slow down the TDF offensives by using strong points and defense in depth, maybe careful use of mines and IEDs. In a second utter folly, Abiy instead of fighting defensively ordered a giant human wave attack against the TDF entrenched in the mountains, who had had months to dig trenches and build defensive fortifications and had many heavy weapons. This whole army was annihilated.

This military malpractice continues unabated, with no lessons learned whatsoever. I am at a loss as to what could be the cause of this. I suspect the war is being directed by politicians with no military or strategic education whatsoever.
It is a blessing in disguise.

Give an analysis on the front in Afar.How powerful is the front in Millie.
 
I think as bad as the amhara and abiye's strategy was, we have to give credit to tplf for getting their strategy spot on. How did TPLF come up with those strategies? It's obvious the west is involved.

The speed at which tplf is capturing strategic locations, and taking out an entire army divisions, in the thousands, if not more, makes it very clear that they are not alone in this fight.
 
I think as bad as the amhara and abiye's strategy was, we have to give credit to tplf for getting their strategy spot on. How did TPLF come up with those strategies? It's obvious the west is involved.

The speed at which tplf is capturing strategic locations, and taking out an entire army divisions, in the thousands, if not more, makes it very clear that they are not alone in this fight.
I don't believe there is western assistance to TPLF, or if there is it is modest. First problem is logistical in that there isn't any route into Tigray for such assistance to arrive, and the second is that these are ancient military strategies that are taught in all military academies and the TPLF have a professionally trained officer corps who are fully capable of doing this themselves with no western assistance. They are helped enormously by the criminal incompetence of their enemies, which make them look even more competent than they actually are.
 
It is a blessing in disguise.

Give an analysis on the front in Afar.How powerful is the front in Millie.
The Afar are having much more success against the TDF because they are following their traditional way of war of Afar desert warfare, of harassment attacks, ambush tactics and remaining highly mobile and not being pinned down by their enemies, in other words the exact opposite of what Amhara are doing. This has been much more successful as Afar are withdrawing from TDF offensives to lay ambushes, harass supply lines, and follow the same military strategies that have ensured their survival sandwiched as they are between the Somali juggernaut to the east and the Habesha empire to the west.
 
I don't believe there is western assistance to TPLF, or if there is it is modest. First problem is logistical in that there isn't any route into Tigray for such assistance to arrive, and the second is that these are ancient military strategies that are taught in all military academies and the TPLF have a professionally trained officer corps who are fully capable of doing this themselves with no western assistance. They are helped enormously by the criminal incompetence of their enemies, which make them look even more competent than they actually are.
What about weapons? where is it coming from? they should've run out by now.
don't forget that tdf is cut off in the north from Eritrea and Sudan. whatever arms they had left after the war should've run out by now.
 
What about weapons? where is it coming from? they should've run out by now.
don't forget that tdf is cut off in the north from Eritrea and Sudan. whatever arms they had left after the war should've run out by now.
The TDF have captured 3 ENDF field armies at this point with all their equipment, they are significantly better equipped than their adversaries.
 
@James Dahl you seem to very well informed about this war.
How do you see the situation evolving in the coming weeks? Do yiu think tplf can enter easily in Addis or it will be a blood bath like Stalingrad ww2 style ?
What about OLA, what is their real strengths?
 
The OLA's real strength is largely unknown, they are clearly not as strong a conventional force as TDF and are mainly a guerrilla force in the Oromia countryside, and lack heavy weapons. I think the OLA will not be able to take the city without the TDF.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
The OLA's real strength is largely unknown, they are clearly not as strong a conventional force as TDF and are mainly a guerrilla force in the Oromia countryside, and lack heavy weapons. I think the OLA will not be able to take the city without the TDF.
The Afar fighters do you think Afar from Eritrea are also involved?

I wonder why Ciise Djibouti are sleeping.Afar might have been promised to take over Djibouti in return for their sacrifice fighting TDF.
 

mrlog

Classy not Ashy, walaahi
Waryaa @James Dahl what about Afworki, would he let Abiye fall or is he waiting for TPLF to go full frontal attack in Addis so he can hit them from the back
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
PP govt amhara newsmedia claimed TPLF has always been Ethiopias enemy since 1977 they were supporting Siyad Barre govt and that they enabled Somalia to capture 700KM Ethiopian territory and masscred Ethiopian villagers.
@Calaf
@reer
@TekNiKo

They also said today TDF is now in bed with Egypt & Sudan.
 
The Afar fighters do you think Afar from Eritrea are also involved?

I wonder why Ciise Djibouti are sleeping.Afar might have been promised to take over Djibouti in return for their sacrifice fighting TDF.
Afar have only fought TDF when they enter Afar lands, it's just an accident of geography that in order to break the siege on Tigray the TDF need to invade Afar lands.
 
The Amhara FANO militia had very successful recruitment and mobilization after the outrage of ENDF withdrawals away from TDF offensives into Amhara territory, but this has led to a long term problem with their strategic and tactical thinking. ENDF was correct to withdraw from a superior offensive, remember Mao's wise words:



Mao knew a thing or two about asymmetrical warfare, he successfully defeated several much larger and better equipped foes through his strategic thinking. ENDF was following this sound military strategy of force preservation to withdraw until ENDF could assemble a force capable of counter-attacking TDF positions.

Here FANO entered the picture. FANO are firmly in favor of "keep land, lose men", believing the heroic myth that dying defending your land is a successful military strategy. FANO early in the war lacked the military strength to turn the tide against TDF, but have from the start sabotaged ENDF's efforts to withdraw and preserve their forces, ensuring many ENDF armies were unnecessarily encircled by TDF, who are a highly mobile force who actively pursue encirclements.

The first of these disasters, after the unforced error of ENDF's encirclement and destruction of their main field army in the Tembien Mountains, following Abiy Ahmed's folly of ordering an offensive against TDF's fortress in the mountains, FANO interfered with and sabotaged ENDF's attempt to withdraw remaining equipment from Alamata in Amhara's newly annexed Raya. Amhara forces, anxious to make the region theirs forever and ethnically cleanse it of its Tigray inhabitants, blocked roads with obstacles and attacked ENDF soldiers trying to withdraw, killing several officers. This caused chaos in the ENDF and Tigray forces moved around them and cut off their escape route, encircling and capturing all the military equipment ENDF were attempting to save from the TDF offensive.

Again Amhara militias and FANO blocked roads and shot at ENDF as they tried to withdraw south from Kobo, where Amhara militias again protested and blocked roads and continued to slow down ENDF withdrawal from Kobo and all the way down to Weldiya where the largest encirclement and military disaster of Amhara forces occurred, where an entire army of Amhara special forces refused to withdraw and were completely destroyed.

The rainy season ended the war for the next few months, as Abiy Ahmed then assembled a brand new army of conscripts and deluded Amhara nationalists into a very large but extremely poorly equipped army, often armed only with machetes and ancient rifles. This was a crap army, but could garrison and slow down the TDF offensives by using strong points and defense in depth, maybe careful use of mines and IEDs. In a second utter folly, Abiy instead of fighting defensively ordered a giant human wave attack against the TDF entrenched in the mountains, who had had months to dig trenches and build defensive fortifications and had many heavy weapons. This whole army was annihilated.

This military malpractice continues unabated, with no lessons learned whatsoever. I am at a loss as to what could be the cause of this. I suspect the war is being directed by politicians with no military or strategic education whatsoever.
What are the numbers of FANO and does Amhara's not being united under one central army one of the bigger reasons of why they are so inefficient?
 
I think there are quite a few FANO, tens of thousands, at least, maybe even hundreds of thousands, but they have poor equipment and no training, and most are farmers. Almost all are unpaid volunteers.
 
I think there are quite a few FANO, tens of thousands, at least, maybe even hundreds of thousands, but they have poor equipment and no training, and most are farmers. Almost all are unpaid volunteers.
So numbers don't mean jack shit? how many would you estimate TDF to number? we have heard anywhere from 100k to 250k, and I am more inclined to believe the latter number(might even be way higher), since just about every tigray adult man is fighting.

US and UK have been pressuring Abiye to back down, and he's refused. Abiye is acting like Ethiopia is not like the rest of Africa, i.e Ethiopia is not under the control of the west, and that's the biggest mistake he's made so far. I think, Without the aforementioned countries, this war will end with him fleeing the country. How do you think it'll end?
 
Abiy has one negotiating advantage in that most people are most worried about Ethiopia imploding, and they want to avoid that, and if the only way to avoid that is Abiy staying PM, then the west would have no choice but to support him.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
Abiy has one negotiating advantage in that most people are most worried about Ethiopia imploding, and they want to avoid that, and if the only way to avoid that is Abiy staying PM, then the west would have no choice but to support him.
No one will.accept a nazi regime that has Chineese interest in mind.

Just like Rumsfeld once said " In order to save the city we had to destroy it."
 

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